MBA Purchase Applications

Purchase Index - W/W Change	Prior 4.5 %	Actual  -2.8 %
Refinance Index - W/W Change	16.5 %	-7.2 %
Composite Index - W/W Change	13.0 %	-5.9 %

MBA: U.S. Mortgage Demand Slips As Rates Creep Higher

FHFA House Price Index

FHFA House Price Index Rises 0.8 Percent in April; First Monthly Increase Since May 2010

 EIA Petroleum Status Report Report Summary

Crude oil inventories (weekly change)	-3.4 M barrels	-1.7 M barrels
Gasoline (weekly change)	0.6 M barrels	-0.5 M barrels
Distillates (weekly change)	-0.1 M barrels	1.2 M barrels

Crude Inventories by PADD

Gasoline Inventories by PADD

FOMC Statement

Federal Reserve Lowers U.S. Growth Outlook

Softs+0.80%

Cotton +4.19%    Lumber +1.16%   Cocoa +0.43% Coffee +0.10% OJ -0.33% Sugar -0.76%

Energies+0.18%

Gasoline +2.63%    Heating Oil +1.53%  WTI +0.42% Natural Gas -1.60%        Ethanol -2.49%

 

Analysis of US EIA data: US oil product demand rebounds, but inventories rise on increased refinery runs    

Platts report: China’s May oil demand robust at 9.31 million b/d, but inventories rising

Financials+0.01%

10-Year +0.08%     5-Year +0.06% T-Bond +0.02% 2-Year +0.01%   Eurodollar +0.01% 

Metals-0.08%

Gold +0.29% Silver +0.09%  Plat+0.03% Pall-0.29% Copper -0.68%

Currencies-0.21%

.USD +0.47% Swiss +0.14% Peso -0.09% C$ -0.20% Yen -0.25% A$-0.37%   Euro FX -0.46% Pound  -1.10%

Sterling turns ugly, Fed stance gives dollar lift

 

Indices-0.28%

Midcap -0.23%       DJIA -0.44% S&P 500 -0.52% Russell -0.55%  Nasdaq 100 -0.60%  

Grains-2.01%

Oats -0.42% Bean Oil -0.80%                Canola -1.12% Meal -1.31% Beans -1.37% Rice -1.52%  Corn -4.24%  Wheat -5.34%

 Grain Prices Plunge as Favorable Weather May Revive Crops in U.S., Europe

Market Report for 04.27.11

 Economic Activity

Durable Goods Orders

New Orders - M/M change	Prev   -0.9 %	Revised 0.7 %	Est 1.9 %	Range 0.5 % to 3.0 %	Act 2.5 %
New Orders - Yr/Yr Change	6.2 %	8.0 %			10.5 %
Ex-transportation - M/M	-0.6 %	0.6 %			1.3 %
Ex-transportation - Yr/Yr	8.5 %	9.9 %			6.1 %

EIA Petroleum Status Report

Crude +6.2m bbls

Gasoline -2.5m bbls

Distillates -1.8m bbls

Oil imports averaged 9.3m bbls /day vs 4wk avg of 8.7m bbl/day

Refinery are running at 82.7% of capacity

Gasoline demand 1.6% below year-ago levels

Distillate demand is up 7.3% from last year

Jet-fuel demand is up 4.4%

Oil Stocks

Refinery Utilization Rate

Gasoline Supplies

Crude Inventories are running on the high side of their average range
While gasoline supplies are low.  Oil refineries are operating at 82.7% of capacity.

Meanwhile, firms like BP and Conoco are reporting quarterly earnings of $5.37 BILLION and $3.0 BILLION respectively.

The “This Week in Petroleum” report shows that domestic oil production is increasing over the last two years after declining for the past couple of decades.

http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/oog/info/twip/twip.asp

FOMC Meeting Announcement

http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20110427a.htm

Federal Funds Rate - Target Level

Prior 0 to 0.25 %

Est 0 to 0.25 %

Act 0 to 0.25 %

Unanimous vote to keep the target rate at this extremely low level for an extended period.

Economic recovery is proceeding at a moderate pace and conditions in the labor market are improving gradually.

The following link shows adjustments made to estimates of growth and inflation.

http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/fomcprojtabl20110427.pdf

Market Activity

Metals+2.02%

SI+6.65% GC+1.72% PA+1.31% PL+1.24% HG-1.38%

COMEX silver stocks are at a 5yr low.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=COMXSIL:IND

25 year Gold Bullion chart

Indices+0.99% CRB -0.30% VIX -1.45%

NQ+1.13% YM+1.05% RK+1.04%  EW+0.90% ES+0.89%

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-27/u-s-stock-futures-rise-before-fed-johnson-johnson-climbs.html

Energies+0.56%

RB+2.50% CL+1.01% HO+0.99% ZK-0.38% NG-0.79%

Gasoline imports from Europe decline:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-26/u-s-gasoline-imports-from-europe-may-drop-to-four-month-low-on-pricing.html

Weekly Gasoline Chart

           

Currencies+0.32%

EC+1.05% BP+0.94% AD+0.87% SF+0.44% MP+0.41% CD+0.26% JY-0.55% USD-0.74%

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-26/dollar-falls-to-16-month-low-against-euro-amid-speculation-of-fed-support.html

25 year USD Chart

Financials-0.20%

FY+0.05% TU+0.02% ED+0.01% TY-0.09% US-0.46%

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_FEDERAL_RESERVE?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2011-04-27-15-20-50

Softs-0.36%

CC+2.40% OJ+2.17%            KC+0.20% SB-1.56% LB-1.56% CT-3.82%

Cotton supplies rose 2.5% from the previous day. The May contract, which is now the spot contract, was down almost 5.5% on the low of the day

Grains-1.70%

RS+0.28% BO-0.33% S-0.34% SM-0.86% RR-1.18% C-1.83% W-4.22% O-5.13%

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-27/grains-soybeans-decline-on-concern-fed-may-ease-stimulus-curbing-demand.html

Market Report for 4.26.11

Economic Data

FOMC Meeting Begins

ICSC-Goldman Store Sales

Store Sales - W/W change	Prev 0.3 %	Act 0.4 %
Store Sales - Y/Y	3.0 %	3.2 %

Redbook

Store Sales Y/Y change

Prev 5.1 %

Act 5.3 %

Consumer Confidence

Consumer Confidence - Level

Prev 63.4

Rev 63.8

Est 65.0

Range 63.0  to 65.0

Act 65.4

Fewer people think that jobs are hard to get. There is increased optimism about income prospects and inflationary expectations eased.

Price Data

Indices+0.93% CRB -0.30% VIX -2.29%

RJ+1.30% EW+1.15% ES+0.94% YM+0.90% NQ+0.64%

Weekly Dow Chart

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stocks-rally-on-earnings-dow-up-115-points-2011-04-26?dist=afterbell

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_WALL_STREET?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2011-04-26-16-11-11

Financials+0.38%

US +0.62% TY+0.32% FV+0.22%  TU+0.05% ED+0.01%

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-26/treasuries-advance-as-u-s-auctions-2-year-notes-amid-speculation-on-fed.html

Energies+0.33%

RB+0.91% HO+0.78% ZK+0.38% CL-0.20% NG-0.20%

http://www.platts.com/BlogDetails/oilblog

Currencies+0.21%

AD+0.58% SF+0.45% EC+0.41% MP+0.32% JY+0.29%  CD+0.22% BP-0.16% USD-0.28%

Softs-0.57%

KC+2.45% CC+0.10% OJ-0.18% SB-0.52% LB-1.97% CT-3.32%

http://dtn.agfax.com/index.cfm?show=801&cat=8&id=07020F7F&sort=4

Grains-0.88%

C+0.49% BO-0.27%  SM-0.36% S-0.49% RR-0.90% RS-1.68% W-1.79% O-2.07%

http://www.cmegroup.com/education/market-commentary/ag/2011/04/recap-corn_543.html

Metals-1.33%

HG+0.38% GC-0.44% PA-0.89%PL-1.18%  SI-4.71%

http://www.thestreet.com/story/11093962/1/silver-prices-retreat-as-gold-treads-water.html

Market Wrap for 04.05.11

Economic Data

ICSC-Goldman Store Sales

Store Sales - W/W change	Prev 0.2 %	Current 2.3 %
Store Sales - Y/Y	2.6 %	2.8 %

 Redbook

Store Sales Y/Y change

Prev 2.6 %

Current 0.5 %

 ISM Non-Mfg Index

Composite Index - Level

Prev 59.7

Est 59.7

Range 57.7  to 68.8

Current 57.3

Growth in the service sector slowed in March. The Business Activity index fell 7 points. Employment activity fell 2 points to 53.7, which is still above 50 which indicates  that that employment activity is still moving higher but at a reduced pace. New Orders fell for the second month. Price pressure is still at elevated levels.

FOMC Minutes

FOMC Press Release

The FED sees the economic recovery is gaining traction. The minutes indicate inflation and inflationary expectations remain in check but close attention to these are merited.

Bernanke's Speech on Financial Reform

Price Activity

Metals +0.95%

SI +1.94% GC+1.66% PL+0.79% PA +0.74% HG-0.27%

Bloomberg Silver Market Story

Softs +0.26%

KC +4.76%  CT+2.82% OJ +0.48% CC-1.49%  SB-1.61% LB -3.32%

 Coffee led the "softs'complex higher on concerns over the quality of Kenyan coffee beans.

Grains +0.16%

O +1.49% RR+1.40% C+0.85% BO-0.05% RS-0.20% W-0.47% S-0.78% BM-0.95%

Add caption

Bloomberg Story on Corn

Currencies +0.05%

BP +0.99% CD+0.39% MP+0.27% EC+0.04% USD-0.05% SF-0.18% AD-0.27%  JY -0.92%

Indices +0.04%

CRB +0.37% RJ+0.28% EW+0.25% YM-0.07% ES -0.13% NQ-0.70% VIX -0.74

Energies -0.14%

ZK +0.70% RB+0.54% HO -0.01% CL -0.61% NG -1.40%

Financials -0.27%

ED -0.01% TU -0.09%  FV-0.31% US -0.36% TY -0.38% 

3.15.11 Market Recap

Economic Data

ICSC-Goldman Sales Store Sales -
W/W change Prior 2.3 % Actual 0.1 %
Store Sales - Y/Y 2.6 % 3.1 %



Empire State Mfg Survey

General Business Conditions Index - Level Prior 15.43 Rev 16.0 Range 14.0 to 20.0 Act 17.5





Import and Export Prices

Export Prices - M/M change Prev 1.2 % Rev 1.3 % Act 1.2 %
Export Prices - Y/Y change Prev 6.8 % Act 8.6 %
Import Prices - M/M change Prev 1.5 % Rev 1.3 % Act 1.4 %
Import Prices - Y/Y change Prev 5.3 % Act 6.9 %

The data suggests that inflationary pressures were building but the events in Japan may have changed the trend



Redbook
Store Sales Y/Y change Prev 2.0 % Act 2.0 %





Treasury International Capital

Foreign Demand for Long-Term U.S. Securities Prev $65.9 B Rev $62.5 B Act $51.5 B
Foreign demand remains strong but it was below the prior two readings



Housing Market Index
Housing Market Index Prev 16 Act 17
The best reading since the tax-credit stimulus plan ended last spring



FOMC Meeting Announcement
View FOMC Statement Here
Federal Funds Rate - Target Level Prev 0 to 0.25 % Est 0 to 0.25 % Act 0 to 0.25 %

As expected, the FED held rates steady and kept the “ for an extended period” comment.

The report notes that the economy is on “firmer footing” and the labor market is “improving gradually.”

Price Activity

Financials +0.25%
T-Bond +0.72% 10-Yr +0.25% 5 Yr +0.04% 2-Year  -0.01% E$ -0.01%
Traders noted two countervailing themes: Bonds rallying to combat a potential economic slowdown, Sell side pressure as the Japanese repatriate their currency.



Currencies -0.23%
JY+1.13% SF+0.82% EC+0.06% $Ind +0.01% BP -0.56% MP -0.75% C$-0.94% A$ -1.62%
Yen strengthened as Japanese institutions brought cash positions back to Japan



Indices -1.27%

VIX +4.95% NQ +0.03% ES unch Mini Dow -0.06% Russell Mini -1.24%
Equity indices have moved below their 50d MA

Metals -2.83%
HG +0.20% GC -1.99% PL -2.81% SI -4.21% PA -5.57%

PA, PL & SI traded lower on fears that industrial deamand for those metals will suffer the most. GC & SI remain above their 50d MA, although the days low in gold was right at that MA

Energies -3.07%
NG +1.02% HO -3.72% WTI -3.78% Ethanol -4.75% Gasoline -5.21%
Concerns that the damage to Japanese ports will be hamper the importing of the full range of commodities.*

Softs -3.31%
LB +0.29% OJ -1.15% CT -3.54% KC -3.79% CC -3.95% SB #11 -7.70%
*See comment above



Grains -5.09%
RR -3.74% SM -4.14% C -4.50% BO -4.51% S -5.22% C -5.41% O -5.81% W -7.35%
*See comment above

#1) MBA Purchase Applications   

_________________________Prior__________Actual

Purchase Index - W/W Change---------	-1.4 %	-5.9 %
Refinance Index - W/W Change	-7.7 %	-11.4 %
Composite Index - W/W Change	-5.5 %	-9.5 %

Rising interest rates caused refinancing activity to drop to is lowest level in 2-1/2  years. The 30yr mortgage rate is 5.12% 

#2) Housing Starts

                    Prior___Est____Act

Starts -	0.520m	0.540m	0.596m
Permits -	0.635m		0.562m

Mixed results: Starts increased versus Permits falling

Starts by region: Northeast +41.8% Midwest +36.4% South +15.8% and West -9.7%

Starts - 

0.520m

0.540m

0.596m 

Permits - 

0.635m

0.562m

#3) PPI

___Prior____Est___Act

PPI - M/M change	0.9 %	0.8 %	0.8 %
PPI less food & energy - M/M change	0.2 %	0.2 %	0.5 %

Headline and core numbers show signs that inflation is picking up.

PPI - M/M change

0.9 %

0.8 %

0.8 %

PPI less food & energy - M/M change

0.2 %

0.2 %

0.5 %

#4)This Week in Petroleum (Click to view report) 

(Click to view Data)

#5) FOMC Minutes

The pace and magnitude of improvements in the labor markets continues to disappoint the FED. Economic growth prospects for 2011 were seen as improving but they see little change in the employment and inflation picture 

Market Recap.01.04.11

FOMC Minutes (cliick to go to Federal Reserve website)

"To promote a stronger pace of economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at levels consistent with its mandate, the Committee decided today to continue expanding its holdings of securities as announced in November. The Committee will maintain its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its securities holdings. In addition, the Committee intends to purchase $600 billion of longer-term Treasury securities by the end of the second quarter of 2011, a pace of about $75 billion per month. The Committee will regularly review the pace of its securities purchases and the overall size of the asset-purchase program in light of incoming information and will adjust the program as needed to best foster maximum employment and price stability. "


 Factory Orders (Click to view details)



Factory Orders Prior=-0.7% Est=-0.3 Act=+0.7

Transportation orders were stronger-than-expected and recent economic reports continue show that the economy is slowly gaining strength.


Weekly Sales Reports
Goldman w/w Prior =+1.0% Latest = +0.4%
Goldman y/y  Prior = +4.8% Latest = +3.6%
Redbook w/w Prior = +4.6% Latest = + 3.5% 
Weekly retail sales reports came in better-than-expected, as shoppers made it stores despite the weather.

Metropolitan Area Employment and Unemployment Summary
(Click to go to BLSwebsite)

METROPOLITAN AREA EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT -- NOVEMBER 2010



Unemployment rates were higher in November than a year earlier in 182 of the 372
metropolitan areas, lower in 166 areas, and unchanged in 24 areas, the U.S. Bureau
of Labor Statistics reported today. Thirteen areas recorded jobless rates of at
least 15.0 percent, while 11 areas registered rates of less than 5.0 percent. One
hundred eighty metropolitan areas reported over-the-year increases in nonfarm pay-
roll employment, 176 reported decreases, and 16 had no change. The national unem-
ployment rate in November was 9.3 percent, not seasonally adjusted, compared with
9.4 percent a year earlier.




Commodity Overview
The improvment in the global economic landscape could lead to portfolio rebalancing, as investors move back to equities and reduce their "alternative investment" holdings> (Gold, oil, commodities) 
Energies -1.6% Metals -2.64% Grains, -1.25%

FOMC Statement 11.03.10

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Statement Regarding Purchases of Treasury Securities
On November 3, 2010, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to expand the Federal Reserve’s holdings of securities in the System Open Market Account (SOMA) to promote a stronger pace of economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at levels consistent with its mandate. In particular, the FOMC directed the Open Market Trading Desk (the Desk) at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York to purchase an additional $600 billion of longer-term Treasury securities by the end of the second quarter of 2011.
The FOMC also directed the Desk to continue to reinvest principal payments from agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities into longer-term Treasury securities. Based on current estimates, the Desk expects to reinvest $250 to $300 billion over the same period, though the realized amount of reinvestment will depend on the evolution of actual principal payments.
Taken together, the Desk anticipates conducting $850 to $900 billion of purchases of longer-term Treasury securities through the end of the second quarter. This would result in an average purchase pace of roughly $110 billion per month, representing about $75 billion per month associated with additional purchases and roughly $35 billion per month associated with reinvestment purchases.