Market Report for 04.29.11

CFTC COT Reports

Financial Futures COT Report (F + O)

 Commodity Futures COT Report (F + O)

Economic Data

Personal Income and Outlays

Personal Income - M/M change	Prev 0.3 %	Rev 0.4 %	Est 0.4 %	Range 0.2 % to 0.5 %	Act 0.5 %
Personal Income - Yr/Yr change	5.1 %	5.2 %			5.3 %
Consumer Spending - M/M change	0.7 %	0.9 %	0.5 %	0.1 % to 0.7 %	0.6 %
Consumer Spending - Yr/Yr change	4.1 %	4.5 %			4.6 %
Core PCE price index - M/M change	0.2 %		0.1 %	0.1 % to 0.3 %	0.1 %
Core PCE price index - Yr/Yr change	0.9 %				0.9 %

Employment Cost Index

ECI - Q/Q change	0.4 %	0.6 %
ECI - Y/Y change	2.0 %	2.0 %

Chicago PMI

Business Barometer Index - Level

Prev 70.6

Est 68.0

Range 65.0  to 69.1

Act 67.6

Market Activity

Grains+3.29%          

RR+4.85% C+4.29% W+3.53% O+3.24% S+3.15%            BO+3.01% SM+2.70% RS+1.58%

http://www.cmegroup.com/education/market-commentary/ag/2011/04/recap-corn_660.html

Energies+1.80%

ZK+3.59% NG+2.36% RB+1.31% HO+0.88% CL+0.73%

http://www.platts.com/RSSFeedDetailedNews/RSSFeed/Oil/6037991

Metals+1.41%

PA+1.93% PL+1.83%            GC+1.80% SI+0.68% HG-1.64%

http://www.smartmoney.com/investing/economy/6-signs-the-silver-market-has-gone-nuts-1303502720960/?cid=djem_sm_WeekontheStreet_h

Softs+0.98%

CT+3.45% CC+1.80% OJ+1.41% LB+1.25% KC+0.25% SB-2.26%

Currencies+0.44%

SF+0.99% CD+0.60% JY+0.53% AD+0.50% MP+0.49% BP+0.38% EC+0.05%  USD-0.22%

Indices+0.39%

RJ +0.45% YM+0.30% EW+0.26%   ES+0.20% NQ+0.15%

http://www.smartmoney.com/investing/stocks/market-update-friday-apr-29-2011-27248/?cid=djem_sm_dailyviews_h

Financials+0.14%

ZB+0.31% ZN+0.19% ZF+0.12% ZT +0.02% ED unch

http://www.marketwatch.com/column/bond-report

World Gold Council: Latest Issue: Gold Investment Digest Q1 2011

View complete report here.
Gold Investment Digest Q1 2011 from World Gold Council        http://www.gold.org/

Source Barchart.com 6 month Gold chart 

Overview
Gold’s long-term supply and demand dynamics and several macro-economic factors ensured gold remained a sought-after asset in Q1 2011. Following a consolidation in January, gold ended the quarter on a firm footing, returning 2.4% over the period.


Price trends
The gold price rose by 2.4% during
Q1 2011 to US$1,439.00/oz by 31 March, on the London PM fix. However, gold’s volatility continued to diminish, a testament to its measured price appreciation. Gold prices rose to 28-year highs in yen terms by the end of the quarter, despite a temporary currency spike in March in the wake of Japan’s crises. In other countries, gold returns were more modest and even negative, as the US dollar lost ground against multiple currencies. Read more…


Investment trends
Investor activity in the gold market
during Q1 2011 differed by region.
ETFs in the US and the UK experienced net redemptions on the back of year-end rebalancing and some profit-taking, while continental European and Indian investors increased allocations. Recent data shows a resumption of net inflows in the latter half of March and early part of April. Coin and bar purchases remained high, while activity in the futures and OTC markets was buoyant. Read more…


Market and economic influences
Investor sentiment improved in the first part of Q1 2011. However, continued geopolitical unrest likely slowed the normalisation of economic growth and
also raised the potential for a significant slowdown. Inflation – especially from
food and energy prices – remains a real concern for consumers around the world. These two influences also focused investor attention on gold’s unique attributes and
its role as a store of value. Read more…


Gold market trends
Preliminary reports for Q1 2011 indicate healthy but mixed activity in the market, responding in part to changes in the gold price. Evidence suggests central banks continued their recent trend of limited sales and increasing purchases. In addition while mine production increased in 2010, recycling activity declined marginally as economic growth in emerging markets mitigated part of the effect of higher prices. Read more…

Market Report for 04.27.11

 Economic Activity

Durable Goods Orders

New Orders - M/M change	Prev   -0.9 %	Revised 0.7 %	Est 1.9 %	Range 0.5 % to 3.0 %	Act 2.5 %
New Orders - Yr/Yr Change	6.2 %	8.0 %			10.5 %
Ex-transportation - M/M	-0.6 %	0.6 %			1.3 %
Ex-transportation - Yr/Yr	8.5 %	9.9 %			6.1 %

EIA Petroleum Status Report

Crude +6.2m bbls

Gasoline -2.5m bbls

Distillates -1.8m bbls

Oil imports averaged 9.3m bbls /day vs 4wk avg of 8.7m bbl/day

Refinery are running at 82.7% of capacity

Gasoline demand 1.6% below year-ago levels

Distillate demand is up 7.3% from last year

Jet-fuel demand is up 4.4%

Oil Stocks

Refinery Utilization Rate

Gasoline Supplies

Crude Inventories are running on the high side of their average range
While gasoline supplies are low.  Oil refineries are operating at 82.7% of capacity.

Meanwhile, firms like BP and Conoco are reporting quarterly earnings of $5.37 BILLION and $3.0 BILLION respectively.

The “This Week in Petroleum” report shows that domestic oil production is increasing over the last two years after declining for the past couple of decades.

http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/oog/info/twip/twip.asp

FOMC Meeting Announcement

http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20110427a.htm

Federal Funds Rate - Target Level

Prior 0 to 0.25 %

Est 0 to 0.25 %

Act 0 to 0.25 %

Unanimous vote to keep the target rate at this extremely low level for an extended period.

Economic recovery is proceeding at a moderate pace and conditions in the labor market are improving gradually.

The following link shows adjustments made to estimates of growth and inflation.

http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/fomcprojtabl20110427.pdf

Market Activity

Metals+2.02%

SI+6.65% GC+1.72% PA+1.31% PL+1.24% HG-1.38%

COMEX silver stocks are at a 5yr low.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=COMXSIL:IND

25 year Gold Bullion chart

Indices+0.99% CRB -0.30% VIX -1.45%

NQ+1.13% YM+1.05% RK+1.04%  EW+0.90% ES+0.89%

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-27/u-s-stock-futures-rise-before-fed-johnson-johnson-climbs.html

Energies+0.56%

RB+2.50% CL+1.01% HO+0.99% ZK-0.38% NG-0.79%

Gasoline imports from Europe decline:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-26/u-s-gasoline-imports-from-europe-may-drop-to-four-month-low-on-pricing.html

Weekly Gasoline Chart

           

Currencies+0.32%

EC+1.05% BP+0.94% AD+0.87% SF+0.44% MP+0.41% CD+0.26% JY-0.55% USD-0.74%

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-26/dollar-falls-to-16-month-low-against-euro-amid-speculation-of-fed-support.html

25 year USD Chart

Financials-0.20%

FY+0.05% TU+0.02% ED+0.01% TY-0.09% US-0.46%

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_FEDERAL_RESERVE?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2011-04-27-15-20-50

Softs-0.36%

CC+2.40% OJ+2.17%            KC+0.20% SB-1.56% LB-1.56% CT-3.82%

Cotton supplies rose 2.5% from the previous day. The May contract, which is now the spot contract, was down almost 5.5% on the low of the day

Grains-1.70%

RS+0.28% BO-0.33% S-0.34% SM-0.86% RR-1.18% C-1.83% W-4.22% O-5.13%

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-27/grains-soybeans-decline-on-concern-fed-may-ease-stimulus-curbing-demand.html

Market Report for 4.26.11

Economic Data

FOMC Meeting Begins

ICSC-Goldman Store Sales

Store Sales - W/W change	Prev 0.3 %	Act 0.4 %
Store Sales - Y/Y	3.0 %	3.2 %

Redbook

Store Sales Y/Y change

Prev 5.1 %

Act 5.3 %

Consumer Confidence

Consumer Confidence - Level

Prev 63.4

Rev 63.8

Est 65.0

Range 63.0  to 65.0

Act 65.4

Fewer people think that jobs are hard to get. There is increased optimism about income prospects and inflationary expectations eased.

Price Data

Indices+0.93% CRB -0.30% VIX -2.29%

RJ+1.30% EW+1.15% ES+0.94% YM+0.90% NQ+0.64%

Weekly Dow Chart

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stocks-rally-on-earnings-dow-up-115-points-2011-04-26?dist=afterbell

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_WALL_STREET?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2011-04-26-16-11-11

Financials+0.38%

US +0.62% TY+0.32% FV+0.22%  TU+0.05% ED+0.01%

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-26/treasuries-advance-as-u-s-auctions-2-year-notes-amid-speculation-on-fed.html

Energies+0.33%

RB+0.91% HO+0.78% ZK+0.38% CL-0.20% NG-0.20%

http://www.platts.com/BlogDetails/oilblog

Currencies+0.21%

AD+0.58% SF+0.45% EC+0.41% MP+0.32% JY+0.29%  CD+0.22% BP-0.16% USD-0.28%

Softs-0.57%

KC+2.45% CC+0.10% OJ-0.18% SB-0.52% LB-1.97% CT-3.32%

http://dtn.agfax.com/index.cfm?show=801&cat=8&id=07020F7F&sort=4

Grains-0.88%

C+0.49% BO-0.27%  SM-0.36% S-0.49% RR-0.90% RS-1.68% W-1.79% O-2.07%

http://www.cmegroup.com/education/market-commentary/ag/2011/04/recap-corn_543.html

Metals-1.33%

HG+0.38% GC-0.44% PA-0.89%PL-1.18%  SI-4.71%

http://www.thestreet.com/story/11093962/1/silver-prices-retreat-as-gold-treads-water.html

Market Report for 4.25.11

Economic Data

 New Home Sales

New Home Sales - Level - SAAR

Prev 250 K

Rev 270 K

Est 280 K

Range 270 K to 300 K

Act 300 K

The median price did post an increase from last month’s 8-year low. The distressed sales of existing homes continues to weigh on the new home sector.

Grains+1.63%

RR+3.47% C+3.42% W+3.31% O+2.12% S+0.65% SM+0.64% BO-0.10% RS-0.45%

Technical Note: May Rough Rice breaks above it's 50d MA for the 1st time since late February. The market is attempting to fill in a price gap left on daily charts.

The USDA crop progress reports shows that rice plantings are 32% below last year and 13% below its 4 year average.

Weather concerns rallied the grain complex. (April is on track to be the wettest on record for Illinois, Indiana and Ohio while dry weather is  stressing crops in the southern Great Plains, China and parts of Europe.)

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-25/corn-wheat-advance-as-adverse-weather-threatens-to-reduce-global-harvests.html

The USDA Crop Progress reports shows plantings are behind schedule and crop conditions are blow normal.

http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/current/CropProg/CropProg-04-25-2011.txt

Metals+0.22%

SI+2.88% GC+0.45% PL+0.37% PA-0.55% HG-2.26%

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/04/25/markets-global-idUSN2521875120110425

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-25/silver-surges-to-all-time-high-on-accelerating-inflation-industry-demand.html?pid=sfc

Financials+0.20%

ZB+0.39% ZN+0.27% ZF+0.22% ZU+0.06% ED-0.01%

 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-24/gross-s-bearish-treasury-bet-clashes-with-dealers-seeing-scope-for-rally.html

Energies+0.11%

ZK+1.51% RB+0.36% CL-0.07% HO-0.60% NG-0.86%

Indices+0.05% CRB -0.15% VIX -2.51%

NQ+0.17% EW+0.14% ES+0.02% RJ-0.05% YM-0.11%

Currencies-0.06%

SF+0.29% EC+0.08% JY+0.07% USD unch MP-0.06% AD-0.22% CD-0.25% BP-0.28%

Softs-0.30%

LB+0.82% CT+0.76% CC-0.06% OJ-0.53% KC-1.17%         SB-1.61%