Economic Data

MBA Purchase Applications

Purchase Index - W/W Change	Prior          -3.2 %	Actual 1.5 %
Refinance Index - W/W Change	13.2 %	0.9 %
Composite Index - W/W Change	7.8 %	1.1 %

Durable Goods Orders

New Orders - M/M change Prior 2.5 % Rev 4.4 % Est        -3.0 % Range                      -5.7 % to 0.5 % Act              - 3.6 % New Orders - Yr/Yr Change 10.5 % 14.1 % 5.3 % Ex-transportation - M/M 1.3 % 2.5 % -1.5 % Ex-transportation - Yr/Yr 6.1 % 8.2 % 6.7 %

From Briefing.com:

Highlights: Durable orders fell 3.6% in April after increasing an upwardly revised 4.4% (from 4.1%) in March. This was the biggest decline since October 2010.

• The Briefing.com consensus expected durable goods orders to decline 2.0%.

Read more: http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicReleases/durord.htm#ixzz1NOsaS7Gx

Orders for durable goods fall 3.6% in April Airline, auto declines account for bulk of reversal, U.S. data indicate

FHFA House Price Index

M/M change	Prev         -1.6 %	Revised       -1.5 %	Act    -0.3 %
Y/Y change	-5.7 %	-5.5 %	-5.8 %

EIA Petroleum Status Report

Crude oil inventories (weekly change)	Prior          0.0 M barrels	Current             0.6 M barrels
Gasoline (weekly change)	0.1 M barrels	3.8 M barrels
Distillates (weekly change)	-1.2 M barrels	-2.0 M barrels

 

Weekly Petroleum Status Report

Analysis of US EIA data: US middle distillate inventories drop as ULSD demand surges

U.S. Oil Import Dependence: declining no matter how you measure it

 

Market Activity

Softs+2.53%

LB+3.61% CC+3.40% SB+3.33% OJ+2.22% KC+1.40%      CT+1.40%

Commodities: Slow Boat to China Big Boost for Canada Lumber-2

Metals+2.04%

SI+4.74% HG+2.33% PA+1.75% PL+1.10% GC+0.12%

PRECIOUS METALS: Gold, Silver Rise On Safe Haven Buying

Energies+1.34

HO+2.44% CL+1.62% RB+1.12% ZK +1.03% NG+0.62%

Oil hits 2-week high on U.S. distillate draw, dollar

Grains+0.96%

O+2.50% W2.15% C1.23%  BO+0.84% RS+0.57% S+0.35% RR +0.30% SM-0.25%

Evening markets: wheat rises, dismissing Russia export risk

Indices+0.72% CRB +1.57% VIX -1.91%

RJ+1.16% EW+0.62% NQ+0.35%         ES+0.32% YM+0.28%

U.S. stocks end higher after 3-session drop

Currencies+0.11%

SF+0.73% BP+0.59% USD unch MP unch CD -0.07% JY-0.12% EC-0.18% AD-0.25%

Financials-0.01%

ZF+0.12% ZN+0.06% ZT+0.02% ED unch ZB-0.10%           

Market Report for 04.27.11

 Economic Activity

Durable Goods Orders

New Orders - M/M change	Prev   -0.9 %	Revised 0.7 %	Est 1.9 %	Range 0.5 % to 3.0 %	Act 2.5 %
New Orders - Yr/Yr Change	6.2 %	8.0 %			10.5 %
Ex-transportation - M/M	-0.6 %	0.6 %			1.3 %
Ex-transportation - Yr/Yr	8.5 %	9.9 %			6.1 %

EIA Petroleum Status Report

Crude +6.2m bbls

Gasoline -2.5m bbls

Distillates -1.8m bbls

Oil imports averaged 9.3m bbls /day vs 4wk avg of 8.7m bbl/day

Refinery are running at 82.7% of capacity

Gasoline demand 1.6% below year-ago levels

Distillate demand is up 7.3% from last year

Jet-fuel demand is up 4.4%

Oil Stocks

Refinery Utilization Rate

Gasoline Supplies

Crude Inventories are running on the high side of their average range
While gasoline supplies are low.  Oil refineries are operating at 82.7% of capacity.

Meanwhile, firms like BP and Conoco are reporting quarterly earnings of $5.37 BILLION and $3.0 BILLION respectively.

The “This Week in Petroleum” report shows that domestic oil production is increasing over the last two years after declining for the past couple of decades.

http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/oog/info/twip/twip.asp

FOMC Meeting Announcement

http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20110427a.htm

Federal Funds Rate - Target Level

Prior 0 to 0.25 %

Est 0 to 0.25 %

Act 0 to 0.25 %

Unanimous vote to keep the target rate at this extremely low level for an extended period.

Economic recovery is proceeding at a moderate pace and conditions in the labor market are improving gradually.

The following link shows adjustments made to estimates of growth and inflation.

http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/fomcprojtabl20110427.pdf

Market Activity

Metals+2.02%

SI+6.65% GC+1.72% PA+1.31% PL+1.24% HG-1.38%

COMEX silver stocks are at a 5yr low.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=COMXSIL:IND

25 year Gold Bullion chart

Indices+0.99% CRB -0.30% VIX -1.45%

NQ+1.13% YM+1.05% RK+1.04%  EW+0.90% ES+0.89%

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-27/u-s-stock-futures-rise-before-fed-johnson-johnson-climbs.html

Energies+0.56%

RB+2.50% CL+1.01% HO+0.99% ZK-0.38% NG-0.79%

Gasoline imports from Europe decline:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-26/u-s-gasoline-imports-from-europe-may-drop-to-four-month-low-on-pricing.html

Weekly Gasoline Chart

           

Currencies+0.32%

EC+1.05% BP+0.94% AD+0.87% SF+0.44% MP+0.41% CD+0.26% JY-0.55% USD-0.74%

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-26/dollar-falls-to-16-month-low-against-euro-amid-speculation-of-fed-support.html

25 year USD Chart

Financials-0.20%

FY+0.05% TU+0.02% ED+0.01% TY-0.09% US-0.46%

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_FEDERAL_RESERVE?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2011-04-27-15-20-50

Softs-0.36%

CC+2.40% OJ+2.17%            KC+0.20% SB-1.56% LB-1.56% CT-3.82%

Cotton supplies rose 2.5% from the previous day. The May contract, which is now the spot contract, was down almost 5.5% on the low of the day

Grains-1.70%

RS+0.28% BO-0.33% S-0.34% SM-0.86% RR-1.18% C-1.83% W-4.22% O-5.13%

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-27/grains-soybeans-decline-on-concern-fed-may-ease-stimulus-curbing-demand.html

New Orders - M/M	P=-2.5 %	R=-0.4 %	E=3.0 %	CR+2.0 % to 6.0 %	A=2.7 %
New Orders - Yr/Yr	6.9 %	9.3 %			7.0 %
Ex-trans - M/M	0.5 %	3.0 %			-3.6 %
Ex-trans - Yr/Yr	11.5 %	14.3 %			10.9 %

New Orders - M/M 

P=-2.5 %

R=-0.4 %

E=3.0 %

CR+2.0 % to 6.0 %

A=2.7 %

New Orders - Yr/Yr 

6.9 %

9.3 %

7.0 %

Ex-trans - M/M

0.5 %

3.0 %

-3.6 %

Ex-trans - Yr/Yr

11.5 %

14.3 %

10.9 %

 The Durable Goods number was supported by new transportation orders.It must be noted that the results from the previous month were revised sharply upward. All in all, the trend is still rising slowly. 

New Claims - Leve	P=410 K	R=413 K	E=405 K	ER=375 K to 415 K	A=391 K
4-week Moving Average - Level	417.75 K	418.5 K			402.0 K

New Claims - Leve                  

P=410 K

R=413 K

E=405 K

ER=375 K to 415 K

A=391 K

4-week Moving Average - Level

417.75 K

418.5 K

402.0 K

 The jobs picture is beginning to gain some traction    

New Home Sales - Level - SAAR

P=329 K

R=325 K

C=310 K

CR+280 K to 340 K

A=284 K

New Home Sales - Level - SAAR 

P=329 K

R=325 K

C=310 K

CR+280 K to 340 K

A=284 K

 New Home sales are struggling under the weight of foreclosed homes.       

Click to view Natural Gas Storage Report

Link to Weekly Supplies Report

Link to this Week In Petroleum

       Energy futures led the other markets on a roller-coaster ride today. Energies and precious metals rallied in early trading on statements concerning the situation in Libya and then broke sharply after the IEA & Saudi Arabia issued statements concerning the replacement of any oil production may be lost in Libya


Link to the IEA Statement
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 

Economic Data Snapshot for 01.28.10

New Claims Prior 482k Consensus 440k Actual 470k
4-week Moving Average Prior 448.25k Actual 456.25k

The 4-week moveing average rose for the second straight week reversing a down trend that began in September. Continuing claims fell but that is being distorted by the expiration of benefits.

New Orders-M/M change: Prior 0.2% Consensus 1.6% Actual 0.3%

New Orders-Y/Y Change: Prior -7.8% Consnsus ??? Actual -3.1%

The headline number was below expectations but an upward revision of the Nov. number

from -0.7 to -0.4

Weekly Change: Prior -245 Consensus -111 Actual -86