Financial Futures+Options Commitment of Traders Report
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Commodities Futures + Options Commitment of Traders Report (Click to View)


GDP Data (click to view)

GDP Price Index
Q/Q Chg Prior=2.1% Est=1.5% Act=0.3%



4Q GDP Q/Q Change Prior=3.5% Est=3.5% Act=3.2%





Bureau of Economic Analysis Press Release: (Link to BEA Press Release)

National Income and Product Accounts

Gross Domestic Product, 4th Quarter and Annual 2010 (advance estimate)Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 3.2 percent in the fourth quarter of 2010, (that is, from the third quarter to the fourth quarter), according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 2.6 percent.

The Bureau emphasized that the fourth-quarter advance estimate released today is based on

source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency (see the box on page4). The "second" estimate for the fourth quarter, based on more complete data, will be released on February 25, 2011.


The increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), exports, and nonresidential fixed investment that were partly offset by a negative contribution from private inventory investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased.

The acceleration in real GDP in the fourth quarter primarily reflected a sharp downturn in imports, an acceleration in PCE, and an upturn in residential fixed investment that were partly offset by downturns in private inventory investment and in federal government spending and a deceleration in nonresidential fixed investment.

Final sales of computers added 0.31 percentage point to the fourth-quarter change in real GDP after adding 0.29 percentage point to the third-quarter change. Motor vehicle output subtracted 0.34 percentage point from the fourth-quarter change in real GDP after adding 0.49 percentage point to the third-quarter change.

 The 0.4% Q to Q increase in the ECI  was below expectations.

4Q'10 was 2.0% above 4Q'09. (The 2nd lowest reading.) The lowest was the 1.4% increase from 4Q'08 to 4Q'09

UofM Sentiment Index:
Prior=72.7 Est= 73.0 Act=74.2

The consumer expectations component shows strenght, while current conditions are below last month. Higher energy and food prices have pushed inflation readings to their highest levels of the recovery.

Home Purchase Applications For wk1/21, 2011

__________________________Prior __Actual

Purchase Index - W/W Change -1.9 % -8.7 %

Refinance Index - W/W Change 7.7 % -15.3 %
Composite Index - W/W Change 5.0 % -12.9 %
Bad weather and a holiday shortened week was thought to the reasons behind the sharp drop in these home financing indexes.

New Home Sales For wk1/21, 2011

_____________Prior __Est___ActualHome Sales     280k     300k    329k



 EIA Weekly Petroleum Report


Crude Oil Supplies as of 1/21/11
340.6 up 4.8 for the week Up 13.9 from yr-ago
Crude Oil Prices
89.11 Down 2.43 for the week Up 14.57 from yr-ago







Gasoline Stocks as fo 1/21/11
230.1 Up 2.4 for the week Up 0.6 from Yr-ago
Prices
2.459 Down 0.036 for the week Up 0.493 frm Yr-ago



Distillate Stocks
165.7 Down 0.1 for the week  Up 8. from Yr-ago
Prices
2.651 Up 0.006 for the week Up 0.709 from Yr-ago

FOMC Minutes

Excerpt from press release:

For immediate release:

"Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in December confirms that the economic recovery is continuing, though at a rate that has been insufficient to bring about a significant improvement in labor market conditions. Growth in household spending picked up late last year, but remains constrained by high unemployment, modest income growth, lower housing wealth, and tight credit. Business spending on equipment and software is rising, while investment in nonresidential structures is still weak. Employers remain reluctant to add to payrolls. The housing sector continues to be depressed. Although commodity prices have risen, longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable, and measures of underlying inflation have been trending downward."



Hi=473.97 Q2'08 Lo=200.16 Q1'09
50% retracement=336.90
Reached 336.29 on 1.19.11

The CRB commodity price index reached a two year high (336.29) on 1.19.11 last week.
That is as close as you are going to get to a Fibbinocci 50% retracement point. Gold has lost some of its safe-haven appeal , rumors that the Saudis have increased output and demand worries are hitting the pricing of many base metals.