04.15.11 Market Wrap

Economic Data

CN:Consumer Price Index

	Prior	Consensus	Actual
M/M % Change			-0.2
Y/Y % Change	4.9	5.2	5.4

 CN:GDP

Y/Y % Change

9.8

9.6

9.7

http://english.people.com.cn/90001/90778/90862/7351423.html

CN:Industrial Production
Yr/Yr % change                    14.9 %                      14.0 %              14.4 %

CN:Producer Price Index

M/M % Change			0.6
Y/Y % Change	7.2	7.2	7.3

CN:Retail Sales 

M/M % Change			1.3
Y/Y % Change	11.6	16.5	17.4

http://english.people.com.cn/90001/90778/90862/index.html

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-15/china-economy-grows-more-than-forecast-9-7-as-prices-jump.html

US: CPI

CPI - M/M change	Prior 0.5 %	Est 0.5 %	Range 0.3 % to 0.5 %	Act 0.5 %
CPI - Y/Y change	2.2 %			2.7 %
CPI less food & energy	0.2 %	0.2 %	0.1 % to 0.2 %	0.1 %
CPI less food & energy - Y/Y change	1.1 %			1.2 %

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-consumer-prices-climb-05-in-march-2011-04-15-848510

US: Empire State Index

General Business Conditions Index - Level

17.5

17.5

8.0  to 21.1

21.7

http://www.newyorkfed.org/survey/empire/empiresurvey_overview.html

US: Industrial Production

Production - M/M change	Prev -0.1 %	Rev 0.1 %	Est 0.6 %	Range 0.4 % to 0.9 %	Act 0.8 %
Capacity Utilization Rate - Level	76.3 %	76.9 %	77.3 %	76.7 % to 77.6 %	77.4 %

Market Activity

Softs+1.56%

CC+4.32% LB+3.43% KC+2.02% SB+0.61% CT-0.27% OJ-0.76%          

 Today was First Notice day for the May Cocoa contract

Indices+0.70% CRB +0.28% VIX -2.48%

EW +0.99% RJ +0.86% ES +0.65% YM+0.61% NQ+0.39%

Energies+0.65%

RB+1.68% CL+1.43% HO+1.10% NG-0.76% Ethanol -0.80%

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-15/crude-oil-futures-pare-declines-after-u-s-industrial-production-increases.html

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-15/crude-oil-futures-pare-declines-after-u-s-industrial-production-increases.htm

Financalals+0.53%

US+0.94% TY+0.51% FV+0.40% TU +0.14% ED +0.01%

Metals+0.33%

SI +2.10% GC+0.92% PL-0.04% HG-0.62% PA-0.79%

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-15/copper-ends-worst-run-since-january-pares-weekly-drop-correct-.html

Currencies+0.07%

MP+0.47% JY+0.36% AD+0.29% USD+0.19% CD unch   SF-0.09% BP-0.28%  EC-0.38%      

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/04/15/g-idUSN1528868420110415

Grains-0.08%

SM+0.79% W0.51% O+0.26% S+0.06%BO-0.05% RR-0.22% RS-0.35%Corn-1.62%

Commodity COT Report ( Combined)
Financial Futures COT (Futures & Options)

Economic Reports

Producer Price Index

PPI - M/M change	Prior 1.6 %	Est 1.0 %	Range 0.4 % to 1.6 %	Act 0.7 %
PPI less food & energy - M/M change	0.2 %	0.2 %	0.1 % to 0.4 %	0.3 %

Jobless Claims

New Claims - Level	Prior 382 K	Revised 385 K	Est 380 K	Range 375 K to 385 K	Act 412 K
4-week Moving Average - Level	389.50 K	390.25 K			395.75 K

EIA Natural Gas Report  http://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html

EIA Natural Gas Storage Data

Total (04/08/11): 1,607 Bcf 

Total (04/01/11): 1,579 Bcf 

Change: 28 Bcf 

Year ago stocks: 1,744 Bcf

% diff to yr ago: -7.9 % 

5-year avg stocks: 1,597 Bcf

% dif to 5-yr avg: 0.6 % 

 Market Activity

Metals +1.66%

SI+4.65% GC+1.33% PL+1.20% PA+1.01% HG+0.22%

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/radical-gold-bugs-keep-confidence-2011-04-14?dist=afterbell

Energies +0.48

NG+2.03% CL+1.20%  RB unch HO-0.08% Ethanol -0.71%

http://www.platts.com/RSSFeedDetailedNews/RSSFeed/Oil/8795061

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-14/oil-advances-as-sunoco-refinery-unit-shut-u-s-gasoline-supplies-tumble.html

Currencies+0.34%

MP+0.50% AD+0.47% JY+0.45% BP+0.44% SF+0.39% EC+0.35% CD+0.29% USD-0.39%

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-14/bullish-peso-bets-jump-35-to-5-billion-as-exports-climb-mexico-credit.html

Indices+0.22% CRB+0.28 VIX -0.98%

RJ+0.58% YM+0.29% ES+0.15% EW+0.13% NQ-0.19%

Softs-0.08%

CC+1.92% OJ+1.64% KC+0.61% CT-0.66% SB-1.41% LB-2.59%

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-14/sugar-falls-caps-longest-slump-since-may-cocoa-coffee-rise.html

Financials -0.09%

ED-0.01% TU-0.06% FV-0.20% US-0.21% TY-0.24%

Grains-0.51%

RR+0.29% SM+0.09%  C-0.17% S-0.19%    RS-0.38% BO-0.85% O-1.23% W-1.63%

http://www.fas.usda.gov/export-sales/highlite.htm

Market Wrap for 4.13.11

Economic Reports

MBA Purchase Applications

Purchase Index - W/W Change	6.7 %	-4.7 %
Refinance Index - W/W Change	-6.2 %	-7.7 %
Composite Index - W/W Change	-2.0 %	-6.7 %

Retail Sales

	Prior	Prior Revised	Consensus	Consensus Range	Actual
Retail Sales - M/M change	1.0 %	1.1 %	0.5 %	0.0 % to 1.2 %	0.4 %
Retail Sales less autos - M/M change	0.7 %	1.1 %	0.7 %	0.2 % to 1.8 %	0.8 %

Business Inventories

	Prior	Consensus	Consensus Range	Actual
Inventories - M/M change	0.9 %	0.8 %	0.7 % to 1.1 %	0.5 %

EIA Status Report

EIA Petroleum Status Report

The Federal Reserve beige Book

“Reports from the twelve Federal Reserve Districts indicated that economic activity generally continued to improve since the last report. While many Districts described the improvements as only moderate, most Districts stated that gains were widespread across sectors, and Kansas City described its economic gains as solid”.  (Source: US Federal Reserve)

http://www.federalreserve.gov/fomc/beigebook/2011/20110413/default.htm

Market Activity

Energies +0.94%

RB+2.38% NG+0.98% HO+0.95% CL+0.69%  Ethanol -0.08%

http://in.ibtimes.com/articles/132998/20110412/gasoline-sales-fall-ins-for-5th-consecutive-week.htm

http://www.platts.com/BlogDetails/oilblog

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-13/crude-oil-rises-for-the-first-time-in-three-days-before-u-s-supply-report.html

I am confused by the discrepancies between the Mastercard gasoline sales figures and the EIA implied demand estimates.

Indices+0.40% CRB 0.15% VIX -1.93%

NQ+0.86% EW+0.49% RJ+0.29% YM+0.14% ES+0.11%

http://www.cmegroup.com/education/market-commentary/eq/2011/04/recap-equity-index_350.html

ESM11 has closed below the 50dMA for 2 consecutive days for the 1^st time since closing above that line on 03.24.11

Softs +0.36%

LB+4.15% KC+2.10% CC+0.43% OJ-0.24% CT-1.19% SB-3.09%

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703551304576260991182322926.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-13/kenya-coffee-jumps-23-at-sale-as-buyers-boost-stocks-before-end-of-season.html

Financials +0.22%

US+0.39% TY+0.22% FV+0.15% TU+0.04% ED+0.01%

Grains +0.18%

RR+1.91% RS+0.69% C+0.40% S+0.28% BO+0.21% SM-0.06% W-0.89% O-1.09%

Currencies +0.07%

MP +0.48% AD+0.30%       USD+0.14%BP+0.08% SF+0.04% JY-0.08% CD-0.13% EC-0.29%

Metals -0.12%

SI+1.26%  GC +0.21% PL+0.05% -0.86% HG-2.33%

COMEX silver inventories have fallen over 2% from 3.31.11 (See Chart)

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=COMXSIL:IND

http://www.cmegroup.com/education/market-commentary/metals/2011/04/pre-open-copper_322.html

Earnings

Before The Open		Actual		Consensus	Yr Ago		Yr/Yr Rev
ASML Holding	ASML	1.30		1.19	0.25
JPMorgan Chase	JPM	1.28		1.16	0.74		-8.5%
After The Close		Actual		Consensus	Yr Ago		Yr/Yr Rev
JB Hunt Trans	JBHT	0.40		0.38	0.29		18.5%
Universal Forest	UFPI	-0.19		0.01	-0.06		-1.5%

Read more: http://www.briefing.com/GeneralContent/Investor/Active/ArticlePopup/PagePopup.aspx?PageId=3272#ixzz1JRsfBzxd

Economic News

NFIB Small Business Optimism Index

	Prior	Actual
level	94.5	91.9

Lower sales & weaker outlook. Hiring and hiring outlook both up

ICSC-Goldman Store Sales

	Prior	Actual
Store Sales - W/W change	2.3 %	0.1 %
Store Sales - Y/Y	2.8 %	2.9 %

International Trade

	Prior	Prior Revised	Consensus	Consensus Range    Actual
Trade Balance Level	$-46.3 B	$-47.0 B	$-44.0 B	$-47.5 B to $-41.9 B	$-45.8 B

Imports in Food & consumer goods both rose.  Auto and capital goods imports fell. Exports fell

Import and Export Prices

	Prior	Actual
Export Prices - M/M change	1.2 %	1.5 %
Export Prices - Y/Y change	8.6 %	9.5 %
Import Prices - M/M change	1.4 %	2.7 %
Import Prices - Y/Y change	6.9 %	9.7 %

Import price rise due to 10.5% rise in energy prices

Redbook

	Prior	Actual
Store Sales Y/Y change	0.5 %	4.7 %

Treasury Budget

	Prior	Consensus	Consensus Range	Actual
Treasury Budget - Level	$-222.5 B	$-189.0 B	$-190.0 B to $-189.0 B	$-188.2 B

The deficit is +15% Outlays +11% Interest cost + 10% Receipts +7%

 Market Activity

Financials +0.49%

US +0.71%     TY+0.58% FV+0.42%TU +0.16% ED unch 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-12/treasuries-gain-first-time-in-3-days-as-u-s-auctions-32-billion-in-notes.html

Currencies

JY+1.19% SF +1.08% EC+0.35% USD -0.25% AD -0.40%        BP-0.56% CD -0.58%MP -0.74%

Softs -0.81%  

CC +1.79% KC -0.29% OJ -0.85% LB -1.38% SB -1.77% CT-2.37%

Indices  -0.95%   VIX +0.73% CRB -1.64%

NQ -0.77% ES -0.78% YM -0.93% EW -1.00%        RJ -1.27%

Metals -1.73%

GC -1.04% PL-1.16% SI -1.48% HG -1.79% PA -3.19%

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/04/12/us-markets-precious-idUSTRE73786N20110412

Energies -2.05%

NG -0.17% RB-1.27% Ethanol  -2.56% HO -2.66% CL-3.77%

http://omrpublic.iea.org/

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/04/12/us-markets-oil-idUSTRE72D01W20110412

Grains -2.87%

SM -2.09% RS-2.34% RR -2.55% O -2.62% BO -2.69% S-2.83% C-3.03% W-4.85%

 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-12/wheat-tumbles-on-concern-commodity-demand-to-ebb-as-japan-crisis-escalate.html

Earnings

Earnings Monday 4;  2 above ests 1 match 1 below; 2 posted higher revs 2 lower revs

Earning Tuesday 2; 1 above 1 below; both posted revs above year-ago