Market Wrap for 4.13.11

Economic Reports

MBA Purchase Applications

Purchase Index - W/W Change	6.7 %	-4.7 %
Refinance Index - W/W Change	-6.2 %	-7.7 %
Composite Index - W/W Change	-2.0 %	-6.7 %

Retail Sales

	Prior	Prior Revised	Consensus	Consensus Range	Actual
Retail Sales - M/M change	1.0 %	1.1 %	0.5 %	0.0 % to 1.2 %	0.4 %
Retail Sales less autos - M/M change	0.7 %	1.1 %	0.7 %	0.2 % to 1.8 %	0.8 %

Business Inventories

	Prior	Consensus	Consensus Range	Actual
Inventories - M/M change	0.9 %	0.8 %	0.7 % to 1.1 %	0.5 %

EIA Status Report

EIA Petroleum Status Report

The Federal Reserve beige Book

“Reports from the twelve Federal Reserve Districts indicated that economic activity generally continued to improve since the last report. While many Districts described the improvements as only moderate, most Districts stated that gains were widespread across sectors, and Kansas City described its economic gains as solid”.  (Source: US Federal Reserve)

http://www.federalreserve.gov/fomc/beigebook/2011/20110413/default.htm

Market Activity

Energies +0.94%

RB+2.38% NG+0.98% HO+0.95% CL+0.69%  Ethanol -0.08%

http://in.ibtimes.com/articles/132998/20110412/gasoline-sales-fall-ins-for-5th-consecutive-week.htm

http://www.platts.com/BlogDetails/oilblog

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-13/crude-oil-rises-for-the-first-time-in-three-days-before-u-s-supply-report.html

I am confused by the discrepancies between the Mastercard gasoline sales figures and the EIA implied demand estimates.

Indices+0.40% CRB 0.15% VIX -1.93%

NQ+0.86% EW+0.49% RJ+0.29% YM+0.14% ES+0.11%

http://www.cmegroup.com/education/market-commentary/eq/2011/04/recap-equity-index_350.html

ESM11 has closed below the 50dMA for 2 consecutive days for the 1^st time since closing above that line on 03.24.11

Softs +0.36%

LB+4.15% KC+2.10% CC+0.43% OJ-0.24% CT-1.19% SB-3.09%

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703551304576260991182322926.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-13/kenya-coffee-jumps-23-at-sale-as-buyers-boost-stocks-before-end-of-season.html

Financials +0.22%

US+0.39% TY+0.22% FV+0.15% TU+0.04% ED+0.01%

Grains +0.18%

RR+1.91% RS+0.69% C+0.40% S+0.28% BO+0.21% SM-0.06% W-0.89% O-1.09%

Currencies +0.07%

MP +0.48% AD+0.30%       USD+0.14%BP+0.08% SF+0.04% JY-0.08% CD-0.13% EC-0.29%

Metals -0.12%

SI+1.26%  GC +0.21% PL+0.05% -0.86% HG-2.33%

COMEX silver inventories have fallen over 2% from 3.31.11 (See Chart)

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=COMXSIL:IND

http://www.cmegroup.com/education/market-commentary/metals/2011/04/pre-open-copper_322.html

Earnings

Before The Open		Actual		Consensus	Yr Ago		Yr/Yr Rev
ASML Holding	ASML	1.30		1.19	0.25
JPMorgan Chase	JPM	1.28		1.16	0.74		-8.5%
After The Close		Actual		Consensus	Yr Ago		Yr/Yr Rev
JB Hunt Trans	JBHT	0.40		0.38	0.29		18.5%
Universal Forest	UFPI	-0.19		0.01	-0.06		-1.5%

Read more: http://www.briefing.com/GeneralContent/Investor/Active/ArticlePopup/PagePopup.aspx?PageId=3272#ixzz1JRsfBzxd

CPI m/m Chg Prior: 0.1% Est 0.4%  Act: 0.5%
CPI less F&E  Prior:0.1%  Est:0.1% Act: 0.1%
 Broader CPI increase due to 4.6% rise in   energy prices.
Core prices held in check retailer competition
& weak housing

Retail Sales m/m Prior:0.8% Est: 0.8%  Act:0.6%
Less Autos          Prior:1.0% Est 0.7%  Act:0.5% 
Sales were below estimates. Higher gasoline
prices are reflected in the sales figures and November figures were stronger than expected.

Ind Prod  m/m   Prior: 0.3% Est: 0.5% Act:0.8%
Utilization Rate   Prior: 75.4% Est: 75.6% Act:76.0%
Manufacturing continues to lead the recovery. Utilities output was up 4.3% due to unusally cold weather.

Consum Sentiment Prior:74.5 Est: 75.0 Act:72.  

Stocks continue to rally on earnings news.
20 out of the 24 companies reporting earnings this week came in above analysts expectations.







Commodity COT (Futs + Opts) (Click to view)

Financials COT (Futs + Opts) (Click to view)