Recap for 5.17.11

Economic Data

ICSC-Goldman Store Sales

Released on 5/17/2011 7:45:00 AM For wk5/14, 2011 Prior Actual Store Sales - W/W change 0.0 % -2.0 % Store Sales - Y/Y 2.7 % 3.2 %

Housing Starts

Released on 5/17/2011 8:30:00 AM For Apr, 2011 Prior Prior Revised Consensus Consensus Range Actual Starts - Level - SAAR 0.549 M 0.585 M 0.570 M 0.549 M to 0.583 M 0.523 M Permits - Level - SAAR 0.594 M 0.574 M 0.551 M

http://www.briefing.com/GeneralContent/Investor/Active/ArticlePopup/ArticlePopup.aspx?SiteName=Investor&ArticleId=NS20110517094047HeadlineHits Redbook

Released on 5/17/2011 8:55:00 AM For wk5/14, 2011 Prior Actual Store Sales Y/Y change 4.7 % -2.3 %

Industrial Production                                                             Iindustrial production was unchanged in April after having increased 0.7 percent in March. Output in February is now estimated to have declined 0.3 percent; previously it was reported to have edged up 0.1 percent. In April, manufacturing production fell 0.4 percent after rising for nine consecutive months. Total motor vehicle assemblies dropped from an annual rate of 9.0 million units in March to 7.9 million units in April, mainly because of parts shortages that resulted from the earthquake in Japan. Excluding motor vehicles and parts, factory production rose 0.2 percent in April. The output of mines advanced 0.8 percent, while the output of utilities increased 1.7 percent. At 93.1 percent of its 2007 average, total industrial production was 5.0 percent above its year-earlier level. The rate of capacity utilization for total industry edged down 0.1 percentage point to 76.9 percent, a rate 3.5 percentage points below its average from 1972 to 2010. (Source: http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/current/)

Released on 5/17/2011 9:15:00 AM For Apr, 2011 Prior Prior Revised Consensus Consensus Range Actual Production - M/M change 0.8 % 0.7 % 0.4 % -0.4 % to 0.8 % 0.0 % Capacity Utilization Rate - Level 77.4 % 77.0 % 77.6 % 77.0 % to 77.9 % 76.9 %

Market Activity

Grains+1.90%

W+3.73% C+3.26% O+2.59% RR+2.02% SM+1.36% S+1.09% RS+0.95% BO+0.23%

http://www.cmegroup.com/education/market-commentary/ag/2011/05/recap-corn_822.html

Financials+0.26%

ZB+0.48% ZN+0.20% ZF+0.10% ED unch ZT unch

http://www.cmegroup.com/education/market-commentary/ir/2011/05/recap-ir-and-treasuries_879.html

Metals+0.19%

HG+1.00% P+0.78% PL+0.40% GC-0.44% SI-0.62%             

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/gold-futures-rebound-in-electronic-trading-2011-05-17?dist=afterbell

Currencies+0.04%

SF+0.35% EC+0.33% AD+0.30% BP+0.27% MP+0.15% CD+0.08% USD-0.21% JY-0.73%

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-16/euro-holds-gains-as-european-union-approves-portugal-aid-pressures-greece.html

Softs-0.14%

CT+2.57% SB+1.19% KC+0.76% OJ-0.16% CC-0.90% LB-4.31%

Indices-0.19%

NQ+0.21% RJ+0.18% EW+0.16% ES+0.09% YM+0.08%        

http://view.ed4.net/v/R0W9G/SP0JXI/XH8GTT/HY7058/

Energies-0.47%

ZK+1.97% CL+0.12% RB+0.05% HO-0.33% NG-3.17%

http://www.vancouversun.com/news/Canadian+natural+prices+tumble+cooling+demand+wanes/4799045/story.html

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/05/17/markets-energy-nymex-idUSN1718132320110517

CPI m/m Chg Prior: 0.1% Est 0.4%  Act: 0.5%
CPI less F&E  Prior:0.1%  Est:0.1% Act: 0.1%
 Broader CPI increase due to 4.6% rise in   energy prices.
Core prices held in check retailer competition
& weak housing

Retail Sales m/m Prior:0.8% Est: 0.8%  Act:0.6%
Less Autos          Prior:1.0% Est 0.7%  Act:0.5% 
Sales were below estimates. Higher gasoline
prices are reflected in the sales figures and November figures were stronger than expected.

Ind Prod  m/m   Prior: 0.3% Est: 0.5% Act:0.8%
Utilization Rate   Prior: 75.4% Est: 75.6% Act:76.0%
Manufacturing continues to lead the recovery. Utilities output was up 4.3% due to unusally cold weather.

Consum Sentiment Prior:74.5 Est: 75.0 Act:72.  

Stocks continue to rally on earnings news.
20 out of the 24 companies reporting earnings this week came in above analysts expectations.







Commodity COT (Futs + Opts) (Click to view)

Financials COT (Futs + Opts) (Click to view)

Snapshot of Economic Data

CPI M/M +0.1% vs +0.1est Y/Y +2.8% vs +1.9%prior

Less F&E +0.1% vs 0.0% prev Y/Y +1.8% vs +1.7% prev


UoM 72.8 vs 72.5 ______IP 0.6% vs 0.8 _______

Empire Mfg 15.92 vs 2.55 prev