Market Recap for 5.6.11

Nonfarm Payrolls - M/M change	Prior 216,000	Revised 221,000	Est 185,000	Range 140,000  to 325,000	Actual 244,00
Unemployment Rate - Level	8.8 %		8.8 %	8.6 % to 8.9 %	9.0 %
Average Hourly Earnings - M/M change	0.0 %	0.2 %	0.2 %	0.1 % to 0.2 %	0.1 %
Av Workweek - All Employees	34.3 hrs		34.3 hrs	34.3 hrs to 34.3 hrs	34.3 hrs
Private Payrolls - M/M change	230,000	231,000	200,000	165,000  to 350,000	268,000

                                                           

 http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_ECONOMY?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2011-05-06-19-03-38                                                                  

Consumer Credit - M/M change

Prev $7.6 B

Est $5.0 B

Range $2.0 B to $7.0 B

Act $6.0 B

 CFTC COT for Commodities (Futures Only)

 Market Activity

Investors pull money from commodity-sector funds

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/investors-pull-money-from-commodity-sector-funds-2011-05-06?dist=afterbell

Many commodity ETF investors unshaken by rout-Lipper http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/05/06/commodities-macrofunds-idUSN0610902120110506

Grains +0.36%

RS +1.54% O+1.50%          RR+1.49% W+0.73% SM+0.58% S+0.32% BO-0.07% C-3.17%          

http://www.cmegroup.com/education/market-commentary/ag/2011/05/recap-corn_232.html

Financials +0.05%

ZN +0.18% ZF+0.14% ZT+0.06% ZB+0.03% ED-0.02%

Currencies -0.02%

USD +0.95% AD+0.87% MP+0.65% CD+0.03% BP-0.07% JY-0.31% SF-0.96% EC-1.28%

FOREX-Euro posts worst week since January; prospects dim http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/05/06/markets-forex-idUSN0610172020110506

Indices -0.10%

RJ unch YM-0.01% ES-0.04% NQ-0.23% EW-0.24%         

Metals -0.25%

PA+0.77% GC+0.69% PL+0.46% HG-0.56% SI-2.63%                            

Softs -0.59%

CC+0.88% LB +0.04% KC-0.24% CT-0.89% OJ-1.46% SB-1.87%           

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-06/coffee-falls-as-rising-robusta-stockpiles-cap-rally-sugar-cocoa-slide.html

Energies-1.42%

RB-0.17% NG-0.61% HO-1.43% ZK -2.25% CL-2.63%

Oil falls again, gutted in record weekly drop

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/05/06/us-markets-oil-idUSL3E7G601S20110506

Bloomberg Unemployment Estimates

                      Bloomberg Survey
 ===========================================================
                       Nonfarm  Private     Manu Unemploy
                       Payrolls Payrolls Payrolls     Rate
                       ,000’s   ,000’s   ,000’s       %
==========================================================
Date of Release          05/06    05/06    05/06    05/06
Observation Period       April    April    April    April
-----------------------------------------------------------
Median                     185      200       20     8.8%
Average                    187      203       20     8.8%
High Forecast              325      350       40     9.0%
Low Forecast               118      161        5     8.6%
Numberof Participants       86       37       20       80
Previous                   216      230       17     8.8%

(Source: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-06/employment-in-u-s-probably-slowed-as-companies-curbed-spending.html)

Market Recap 05.05.11

Economic Data

Weekly Jobless  Claims	Prior	Prior Revised	Consensus	Consensus Range	Actual
New Claims – Level	429 K	431 K	410 K	400 K to 450 K	474 K
4-week Moving Average – Level	408.5 K	409.0 K			431.25 K

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/05/05/special-factors-partly-blamed-unemployment_n_857981.html

Productivity and Costs	Prior	Prior Revised	Consensus	Consensus Range	Actual
Nonfarm productivity – Q/Q change – SAAR	2.6 %	2.9 %	1.5 %	0.5 % to 3.1 %	1.6 %
Unit labor costs – Q/Q change – SAAR	-0.6 %	-1.0 %	0.8 %	-0.4 % to 1.2 %	1.0 %

Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

http://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html

Total (04/29/11): 1,757 Bcf 

Total (04/22/11): 1,685 Bcf 

Change: 72 Bcf 

Year ago stocks: 1,983 Bcf

% diff to yr ago: -11.4 % 

5-year avg stocks: 1,774 Bcf

% dif to 5-yr avg: -1.0 % 

Market Activity

Financials+0.39%

US +0.78%     TY+0.42% FV+0.23% TU+0.03% ED+0.01%

Australia’s RBA flags more rate hikes

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/australias-rba-flags-more-rate-hikes-2011-05-05

Indices-0.43%

EW-0.07% ES-0.07% YM-0.08% NQ-0.13% RJ-0.14%

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/stocks-to-watch-friday-aig-washington-post-2011-05-05

Currencies-0.74%

USD+1.53% JY+0.55% BP-0.78% MP-0.96% CD-1.08% SF-1.19% AD-1.61% EC-2.09%

http://www.cmegroup.com/education/market-commentary/fx/2011/05/asia-fx_010.html

Softs-2.09%

LB+0.44% OJ-0.61% KC-2.12% SB-2.30% CT-3.07% CC-4.86%

Grains-2.81%           

SM-1.42% S-2.24% W-2.33% BO-2.52%   RS-2.65% C-2.84% O-3.47% RR-5.04%

http://www.cmegroup.com/education/market-commentary/ag/2011/05/recap-corn_088.html

Metals-5.72%

GC-2.65% PL-3.13% HG-3.60%  PA-4.83% SI -11.84%

http://in.reuters.com/article/2011/05/05/markets-precious-idINLDE7440RL20110505

http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdates/archives/2011/05/05/Gold-and-Silver-Why-Are-Prices-Falling.aspx

Energies-6.88% 

CME expands oil-price limits on sharp selloff

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/cme-expands-oil-price-limits-on-sharp-selloff-2011-05-05

ZK-2.27% RB-6.76% NG-6.95% HO-8.15% CL -8.94%

http://green.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/05/05/dissecting-this-weeks-oil-price-tumble/?partner=rss&emc=rss

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20110505-703553.html

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/05/05/oil-prices-plunge-in-reco_n_858275.html

http://in.reuters.com/article/2011/05/06/idINIndia-56812320110506

Commodities Decline the Most in Two Years

 Softs -2.52% Grains -3.03%   Metals -4.45% Energies -4.93%

Commodities Decline the Most in Two Years on Concern Global Growth Slowing

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-05/commodities-drop-most-in-7-weeks-on-speculation-economic-growth-is-slowing.html

Here are some of the markets that are breaking below their 50 day moving averages

Post Announcement ECB Press Conference 05.05.11

Jean-Claude Trichet, President of the ECB,
Vítor Constâncio, Vice-President of the ECB,
Helsinki, 5 May 2011

Ladies and gentlemen, the Vice-President and I are very pleased to welcome you to our press conference here in Helsinki. I would like to thank Governor Liikanen for his kind hospitality and express our special gratitude to his staff for the excellent organisation of today’s meeting of the Governing Council. We will now report on the outcome of the meeting, which was also attended by Commissioner Rehn.

Based on its regular economic and monetary analyses, the Governing Council decided to keep the key ECB interest rates unchanged following the 25-basis point increase on 7 April 2011. The information that has become available since then confirms our assessment that an adjustment of the very accommodative monetary policy stance was warranted. We continue to see upward pressure on overall inflation, mainly owing to energy and commodity prices. While the monetary analysis indicates that the underlying pace of monetary expansion is still moderate, monetary liquidity remains ample and may facilitate the accommodation of price pressures. Furthermore, recent economic data confirm the positive underlying momentum of economic activity in the euro area, with uncertainty continuing to be elevated. All in all, it is essential that recent price developments do not give rise to broad-based inflationary pressures. Inflation expectations in the euro area must remain firmly anchored in line with our aim of maintaining inflation rates below, but close to, 2% over the medium term. Such anchoring is a prerequisite for monetary policy to make an ongoing contribution towards supporting economic growth and job creation in the euro area. With interest rates across the entire maturity spectrum remaining low and the monetary policy stance still accommodative, we will continue to monitor very closely all developments with respect to upside risks to price stability. Maintaining price stability over the medium term is our guiding principle, which we apply when assessing new information, forming our judgements and deciding on any further adjustment of the accommodative stance of monetary policy.

View Complete Introductory Statement to the ECB press conference here

Market Recap 05.04.00

Economic Data

US:MBA Purchase Applications

Purchase Index - W/W Change	Prev         -13.6 %	Act 0.3 %
Refinance Index - W/W Change	-0.6 %	6.0 %
Composite Index - W/W Change	-5.6 %	4.0 %

US:Challenger Job-Cut Report

Announced Layoffs - Level

Prev 41,528

Act  36,490

US:ADP Employment Report

ADP employment

Prev 201,000

Rev 207,000

Act  179,000

 US:ISM Non-Mfg Index

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_ECONOMY?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2011-05-04-18-36-39

 US:EIA Petroleum Status Report   EIA Petroleum Data Viewable Here

Highlights of EIA Report http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/weekly_petroleum_status_report/current/pdf/highlights.pdf

PLATTS analysis of US EIA data: US oil demand drops sharply for week ended April 29

http://www.platts.com/PressReleases/2011/050411b

CFTC “This Month In Futures Markets for April 2011”

http://www.cftc.gov/oce/web/index.htm

Market Data

Worries that China may raise interest rates again was an important factor in today’s market activity.

 http://www.automatedtrader.net/real-time-news/76076/china-pboc-hints-at-more-tightening-as-global-inflation-rises

Financials+0.18%     

US+0.38% TY+0.15% FV+0.03%    ED+0.01% TU+0.01%

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/05/04/usa-fed-lockhart-idUSEBE7DA0020110504

Currencies-0.09%

JY+0.44% BP+0.20% EC+0.11% SF+0.02% USD-0.06% MP-0.44% CD-0.46% AD-0.85%

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-04/switzerland-s-franc-rises-to-record-versus-dollar-on-rate-stock-outlook.html

Indices-0.52%

NQ-0.06% YM -0.56% ES-0.57% EW-0.74% RJ -1.03%

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/05/04/us-markets-stocks-idUSTRE74120Z20110504

Energies-0.85%

ZK+1.11% RB-0.47% HO-1.70% CL-1.96% NG-2.08%           

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-04/crude-oil-declines-a-third-day-in-new-york-after-u-s-inventories-increase.html

Grains-1.06%

C+0.79% O+0.58% SM-0.68% S-0.86% BO-0.94% RS-1.44% W-2.68% RR-3.25%

http://www.cmegroup.com/education/market-commentary/ag/2011/05/recap-wheat_138.html

Softs-2.84%

OJ-0.23% CC-1.83% SB-3.17% KC-3.81% CT-3.81% LB-4.18%

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-04/sugar-falls-for-a-fifth-day-on-thai-output-china-inflation-coffee-drops.html

Metals-3.36%

GC-1.66% PL-1.74% HG-3.01%  PA-4.44% SI-7.67%

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/05/04/businesspro-us-markets-silver-slide-idUSTRE7437XU20110504

Economic Reports

 ICSC-Goldman Store Sales

Store Sales - W/W change	Prev 0.4 %	Act           -0.8 %
Store Sales - Y/Y	3.2 %	2.8 %

Redbook

Store Sales Y/Y change

5.3 %

5.5 %

 Factory Orders

Factory Orders - M/M change

Prev     -0.1 %

Rev 0.7 %

Est 2.0 %

Range 1.7 % to 2.8 %

Act 3.0 %

Market Activity

Softs+0.27%

CT+1.98%  OJ+1.95%     SB+0.82% KC-0.10% CC-0.61% LB -2.40%

Financials+0.18%

US +0.38% TY+0.15% FV+0.05% ED +0.02% TU+0.01%

http://www.goldalert.com/2011/05/india-raises-rates-australia-stands-pat/

Currencies-0.29%

SF +0.34% JY+0.32% USD+0.19% EC-0.12% CD-0.35% MP-0.52% AD-0.94% BP -1.23%

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/05/03/us-markets-forex-idUSTRE73O2YU20110503

Grains-0.74%           

RR+1.28% O+0.29% W+0.19% RS-0.57% C-1.46% BO-1.52% SM-2.04%     S-2.10%

http://www.cmegroup.com/education/market-commentary/ag/2011/05/recap-soybean_097.html

Indices-0.80%

YM-0.23% ES-0.55% NQ-0.73% EW-1.16% RJ-1.36%     

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-03/levin-report-accusing-goldman-of-deception-referred-to-u-s-justice-sec.html

Goldman Sachs

Energies-1.09%

ZK-0.15% NG-0.53% RB -0.62% HO-1.86% CL-2.18%      

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-03/crude-oil-falls-as-s-p-500-index-declines-u-s-supplies-probably-climbed.html

Metals-2.84%

HG +1.04% PL-1.00% GC-1.41% PA-1.51% SI-10.06%      

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/gold-silver-futures-extend-losses-2011-05-02?dist=afterbell

http://www.goldalert.com/2011/05/silver-price-plunges-to-41-50-cibc-remains-bullish/

PSLV (Silver ETF)