Recap of 5.19.11

Economic Data

http://www.dol.gov/opa/media/press/eta/ui/current.htm

	Prior	Prior Revised	Consensus	Consensus Range	Actual
New Claims - Level	434 K	438 K	425 K	410 K to 440 K	409 K
4-week Moving Average - Level	436.75 K	437.75 K			439.0 K

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/43092522#43092522

	Prior	Prior Revised	Consensus	Consensus Range	Actual
Existing Home Sales - Level - SAAR	5.10 M	5.10 M	5.2 M	5.1 M to 5.4 M	5.05 M
Existing Home Sales - M/M Change	3.7 %				-0.8 %
Existing Home Sales - Yr/Yr Change	-6.3 %				-12.9 %

http://hotair.com/archives/2011/05/19/existing-home-sales-slip-0-8/

	Prior	Prior Revised	Consensus	Consensus Range	Actual
Leading Indicators - M/M change	0.4 %	0.7 %	0.0 %	-0.1 % to 0.4 %	-0.3 %

EIA Natural Gas Storage Data  

Total (05/13/11): 1,919 Bcf 

Total (05/06/11): 1,827 Bcf 

Change: 92 Bcf 

Year ago stocks: 2,154 Bcf

% diff to yr ago: -10.9 % 

5-year avg stocks: 1,955 Bcf

% dif to 5-yr avg: -1.8 % 

http://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html

Market Activity

Currencies+0.31%

MP +0.94% EC+0.61% AD+0.54% BP+0.46% CD+0.43%   JY+0.03% SF +0.03% USD-0.50%

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-18/goldman-lowers-dollar-forecasts-versus-euro-on-weak-u-s-growth-prospects.html

Indices+0.19%

YM+0.35% NQ+0.29% EW+0.18% ES+0.15% RJ+0.07%  

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20110519-714610.html

Financials unch

ZF+0.09% ZN+0.06% ZU+0.05% ED+0.01% ZB-0.05%

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/39220a04-8214-11e0-a063-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1Mq3d12Ea

Grains unch

RR +0.84% RS+0.42% BO+0.28% SM+0.11% S unch C-0.20% W-0.61% O-0.82%

http://www.cmegroup.com/education/market-commentary/ag/2011/05/recap-corn_826.html

Softs-0.85%

LB+2.90% OJ+2.47% CC-0.53% KC-2.35% CT-2.63% SB-4.51%

Metals-0.88%

GC-0.16% SI-0.40% PL-0.61% PA-1.33% HG-1.45%

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20110519-714682.html

http://video.ft.com/v/947537846001/Earthquake-and-euro-woes-hit-platinum           

Energies -1.08%

ZK +0.11% HO-0.27% RB -1.20% CL-1.55% NG-2.41%    

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/05/19/us-markets-oil-idUSL3E7G601S20110519

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/big-hurricanes-forecast-for-later-this-year-2011-05-19

Market Recap 05.05.11

Economic Data

Weekly Jobless  Claims	Prior	Prior Revised	Consensus	Consensus Range	Actual
New Claims – Level	429 K	431 K	410 K	400 K to 450 K	474 K
4-week Moving Average – Level	408.5 K	409.0 K			431.25 K

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/05/05/special-factors-partly-blamed-unemployment_n_857981.html

Productivity and Costs	Prior	Prior Revised	Consensus	Consensus Range	Actual
Nonfarm productivity – Q/Q change – SAAR	2.6 %	2.9 %	1.5 %	0.5 % to 3.1 %	1.6 %
Unit labor costs – Q/Q change – SAAR	-0.6 %	-1.0 %	0.8 %	-0.4 % to 1.2 %	1.0 %

Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

http://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html

Total (04/29/11): 1,757 Bcf 

Total (04/22/11): 1,685 Bcf 

Change: 72 Bcf 

Year ago stocks: 1,983 Bcf

% diff to yr ago: -11.4 % 

5-year avg stocks: 1,774 Bcf

% dif to 5-yr avg: -1.0 % 

Market Activity

Financials+0.39%

US +0.78%     TY+0.42% FV+0.23% TU+0.03% ED+0.01%

Australia’s RBA flags more rate hikes

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/australias-rba-flags-more-rate-hikes-2011-05-05

Indices-0.43%

EW-0.07% ES-0.07% YM-0.08% NQ-0.13% RJ-0.14%

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/stocks-to-watch-friday-aig-washington-post-2011-05-05

Currencies-0.74%

USD+1.53% JY+0.55% BP-0.78% MP-0.96% CD-1.08% SF-1.19% AD-1.61% EC-2.09%

http://www.cmegroup.com/education/market-commentary/fx/2011/05/asia-fx_010.html

Softs-2.09%

LB+0.44% OJ-0.61% KC-2.12% SB-2.30% CT-3.07% CC-4.86%

Grains-2.81%           

SM-1.42% S-2.24% W-2.33% BO-2.52%   RS-2.65% C-2.84% O-3.47% RR-5.04%

http://www.cmegroup.com/education/market-commentary/ag/2011/05/recap-corn_088.html

Metals-5.72%

GC-2.65% PL-3.13% HG-3.60%  PA-4.83% SI -11.84%

http://in.reuters.com/article/2011/05/05/markets-precious-idINLDE7440RL20110505

http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdates/archives/2011/05/05/Gold-and-Silver-Why-Are-Prices-Falling.aspx

Energies-6.88% 

CME expands oil-price limits on sharp selloff

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/cme-expands-oil-price-limits-on-sharp-selloff-2011-05-05

ZK-2.27% RB-6.76% NG-6.95% HO-8.15% CL -8.94%

http://green.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/05/05/dissecting-this-weeks-oil-price-tumble/?partner=rss&emc=rss

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20110505-703553.html

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/05/05/oil-prices-plunge-in-reco_n_858275.html

http://in.reuters.com/article/2011/05/06/idINIndia-56812320110506

Economic Data

Wholesale Trade

	Prior	Actual
Inventories - M/M change	1.1 %	1.0 %

Market Activity

Grains +2.21%

O+5.35% W+3.14%BO+2.49%S+2.11%SM+1.80%C+1.19%RS+1.17% RR+0.44%

USDA WASDE Report http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/current/wasde/wasde-04-08-2011.pdf

Bloomberg Grain Report http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-08/corn-rises-on-signs-higher-cost-failing-to-slow-demand-wheat-prices-gain.html

Oats reversed yesterdays limit-down action by closing up the daily price limit

Energies +1.79%

HO+3.55% RB+2.33%CL+2.26% Ethanol +1.19% NG-0.39%

Platts OilBlog http://www.platts.com/BlogDetails/oilblog

Metals +1.72%

SI+2.67% HG+1.92% PA+1.79% PL+1.20% GC+1.01%

Currencies +0.27%

EC+0.95% SF +0.69% AD+0.68% MP+0.36%BP+0.21% CD+0.12%         USD -0.98%

Financials -0.07%

ED +0.01% TU-0.03% FV -0.08% TY -0.08% US -0.11%

Indices -0.55% VIX +1.47% CRB +0.95%

YM-0.20% ES-0.36%          NQ-0.48% EW-0.68% RJ-1.04%

NYSE volume 585M shares, about 18% below its three-month average; decliners lead advancers by 2.5:1.
NASDAQ volume 1.33B shares, about 15% below its three-month average; decliners lead advancers by 2.6:1.
- VIX index +6% at just over 18.00

Softs -1.65%

OJ +0.94% KC+0.79% CC-0.44% CT-2.52% SB-3.17% LB-5.48%

Cotton sold-off on a “buy the rumor-sell the fact” reaction to the USDA report that showed lower ending stocks thatn the previous report

1Q Earnings Week 1

27 Reports  22 above last year 5 below last year Spreadsheet of Earnings Results

16 Above Expectations

4 Matching

7 Below

CFTC Reports

CFTC Commodity COT (Combined)

EIA Weekly Oil Supply Data

EIA Est EIA Actual API Actual Vs Est
Crude -2.0 -3.7 -6.8 -2.0
RBOB +2.0 +2.3 +0.2
Dist +1.5 +2.9 +0.75
Should be a bit negative. Gasoline & distillates up more than expected. Crude fell more than estimates, but not as much as the surprising API numbers last night. Weakening demand in all 3 categories and an increase of Cushing, OK supplies should also serve to keep a lid on prices.

( I am still experiencing problems with the formatting of data.Please bear with me.)