Economic Data

Personal Income and Outlays http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/pi/pinewsrelease.htm

Personal Income - M/M change	Prior 0.4 %	Revised 0.3 %	Est 0.4 %	Range 0.1 % to 0.5 %	Act 0.3 %
Personal Income - Yr/Yr change	4.4 %	4.4 %			4.2 %
Consumer Spending - M/M change	0.4 %	0.3 %	0.0 %	-0.2 % to 0.3 %	0.0 %
Consumer Spending - Yr/Yr change	4.8 %	4.8 %			4.7 %
Core PCE price index - M/M change	0.2 %		0.2 %	0.2 % to 0.3 %	0.3 %
Core PCE price index - Yr/Yr change	1.0 %	1.1 %			1.2 %

Price Data

Indices+1.17%

Nasdaq +1.97%         Russell +1.01% S&P 500 +0.95% DJIA +0.92%  Midcap +0.66%

U.S. Stocks Gain as Banks Get New Rules, Technology Shares Rise     

Energies+0.10%

Gasoline +1.26%       H Oil +0.59% Nat Gas +0.59% WTI -0.34% Ethanol -0.87%

Oil Slides on Outlook for Slower Demand as IEA May Release More Stockpiles

           

Currencies-0.06%

Euro +0.79%   S Franc +0.18% C$ +0.17% Pound +0.06% Peso-0.06% A$ -0.48% Yen -0.57% USD  -0.58%

Euro Rises Versus Dollar on Greece Optimism

Softs-0.21%

Cocoa +1.25% Sugar +0.94%Coffee+0.46% Lumber-0.64% OJ-1.36%           Cotton -1.95%

Financials-0.45%

Eurodollar+0.02% 2-Year -0.09%  5-Year -0.20% 10-Year -0.20% T-Bond -0.84%

Treasury bond yields rise as some investors shun new debt sale

Grains-0.62%

Meal+0.91%      Beans +0.72% Canola -0.26% B Oil -0.56% Oats -0.75% Corn -1.38% Rice -1.60% Wheat -2.04%

Wheat Extends June Slide as Accelerating Harvest Boosts U.S. Grain Supply

Metals-0.94%

Plat -0.11%  Gold -0.33%       Pall-0.34% Copper -0.65%     Silver -3.23%         

Gold falls as safe-haven bids ease, equities up

IEA Oil Release News Reports

Brent Weekly

RBOV Weekly

WTI Weekly

Press releases IEA makes 60 million barrels of oil available to market to offset Libyan disruption

IEA collective action – June 23, 2011 Frequently asked questions How many times has the IEA undertaken such a “collective action”? When was the last time? How exactly will stocks be made available to the market in each of your member countries? What mechanism is used? How much time will it take for these stocks to become available? How much oil will each country release? Will each country release the same proportional amount, or will some countries do more? How is that decision made? THas the IEA consulted with OPEC or Saudi Arabia on this decision? Would this IEA action not discourage Saudi Arabia and other willing OPEC members from increasing oil production? I thought the IEA only does this for supply disruptions in excess of 7%. The 1.5 million-barrels-a-day disruption from Libya doesn’t seem all that much, given that global demand is around 88 mb/d, so why go to all the trouble? If the disruption from Libya is 1.5 million barrels per day, why are the IEA member countries releasing 2 million barrels per day? Libyan supplies have been off the market since February. Why are you only doing this now? Are IEA countries not putting at risk their capacity to react to more serious oil disruptions that may happen in the coming months considering geopolitical uncertainties in MENA countries?No; Several analysts say this is only likely to have a short-term effect on the market, and that prices will be higher in a month’s time. What’s your response?  Will you extend this by 30 days? How will you decide? Isn’t the IEA effectively doing this to counter high prices – and in that sense isn’t this fundamentally different from a traditional release in response to a supply disruption? Doesn’t this therefore set a bad precedent, by making the IEA a market manipulator? API Head: SPR Release Avoids Question Of Domestic Supply -CNBC U.S., allies to release 60 million barrels from oil reserves UPDATE 2-Bids for 30 mln barrels of SPR oil due by June 29

Recap of 5.19.11

Economic Data

http://www.dol.gov/opa/media/press/eta/ui/current.htm

	Prior	Prior Revised	Consensus	Consensus Range	Actual
New Claims - Level	434 K	438 K	425 K	410 K to 440 K	409 K
4-week Moving Average - Level	436.75 K	437.75 K			439.0 K

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/43092522#43092522

	Prior	Prior Revised	Consensus	Consensus Range	Actual
Existing Home Sales - Level - SAAR	5.10 M	5.10 M	5.2 M	5.1 M to 5.4 M	5.05 M
Existing Home Sales - M/M Change	3.7 %				-0.8 %
Existing Home Sales - Yr/Yr Change	-6.3 %				-12.9 %

http://hotair.com/archives/2011/05/19/existing-home-sales-slip-0-8/

	Prior	Prior Revised	Consensus	Consensus Range	Actual
Leading Indicators - M/M change	0.4 %	0.7 %	0.0 %	-0.1 % to 0.4 %	-0.3 %

EIA Natural Gas Storage Data  

Total (05/13/11): 1,919 Bcf 

Total (05/06/11): 1,827 Bcf 

Change: 92 Bcf 

Year ago stocks: 2,154 Bcf

% diff to yr ago: -10.9 % 

5-year avg stocks: 1,955 Bcf

% dif to 5-yr avg: -1.8 % 

http://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html

Market Activity

Currencies+0.31%

MP +0.94% EC+0.61% AD+0.54% BP+0.46% CD+0.43%   JY+0.03% SF +0.03% USD-0.50%

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-18/goldman-lowers-dollar-forecasts-versus-euro-on-weak-u-s-growth-prospects.html

Indices+0.19%

YM+0.35% NQ+0.29% EW+0.18% ES+0.15% RJ+0.07%  

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20110519-714610.html

Financials unch

ZF+0.09% ZN+0.06% ZU+0.05% ED+0.01% ZB-0.05%

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/39220a04-8214-11e0-a063-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1Mq3d12Ea

Grains unch

RR +0.84% RS+0.42% BO+0.28% SM+0.11% S unch C-0.20% W-0.61% O-0.82%

http://www.cmegroup.com/education/market-commentary/ag/2011/05/recap-corn_826.html

Softs-0.85%

LB+2.90% OJ+2.47% CC-0.53% KC-2.35% CT-2.63% SB-4.51%

Metals-0.88%

GC-0.16% SI-0.40% PL-0.61% PA-1.33% HG-1.45%

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20110519-714682.html

http://video.ft.com/v/947537846001/Earthquake-and-euro-woes-hit-platinum           

Energies -1.08%

ZK +0.11% HO-0.27% RB -1.20% CL-1.55% NG-2.41%    

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/05/19/us-markets-oil-idUSL3E7G601S20110519

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/big-hurricanes-forecast-for-later-this-year-2011-05-19

Economic News

NFIB Small Business Optimism Index

	Prior	Actual
level	94.5	91.9

Lower sales & weaker outlook. Hiring and hiring outlook both up

ICSC-Goldman Store Sales

	Prior	Actual
Store Sales - W/W change	2.3 %	0.1 %
Store Sales - Y/Y	2.8 %	2.9 %

International Trade

	Prior	Prior Revised	Consensus	Consensus Range    Actual
Trade Balance Level	$-46.3 B	$-47.0 B	$-44.0 B	$-47.5 B to $-41.9 B	$-45.8 B

Imports in Food & consumer goods both rose.  Auto and capital goods imports fell. Exports fell

Import and Export Prices

	Prior	Actual
Export Prices - M/M change	1.2 %	1.5 %
Export Prices - Y/Y change	8.6 %	9.5 %
Import Prices - M/M change	1.4 %	2.7 %
Import Prices - Y/Y change	6.9 %	9.7 %

Import price rise due to 10.5% rise in energy prices

Redbook

	Prior	Actual
Store Sales Y/Y change	0.5 %	4.7 %

Treasury Budget

	Prior	Consensus	Consensus Range	Actual
Treasury Budget - Level	$-222.5 B	$-189.0 B	$-190.0 B to $-189.0 B	$-188.2 B

The deficit is +15% Outlays +11% Interest cost + 10% Receipts +7%

 Market Activity

Financials +0.49%

US +0.71%     TY+0.58% FV+0.42%TU +0.16% ED unch 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-12/treasuries-gain-first-time-in-3-days-as-u-s-auctions-32-billion-in-notes.html

Currencies

JY+1.19% SF +1.08% EC+0.35% USD -0.25% AD -0.40%        BP-0.56% CD -0.58%MP -0.74%

Softs -0.81%  

CC +1.79% KC -0.29% OJ -0.85% LB -1.38% SB -1.77% CT-2.37%

Indices  -0.95%   VIX +0.73% CRB -1.64%

NQ -0.77% ES -0.78% YM -0.93% EW -1.00%        RJ -1.27%

Metals -1.73%

GC -1.04% PL-1.16% SI -1.48% HG -1.79% PA -3.19%

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/04/12/us-markets-precious-idUSTRE73786N20110412

Energies -2.05%

NG -0.17% RB-1.27% Ethanol  -2.56% HO -2.66% CL-3.77%

http://omrpublic.iea.org/

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/04/12/us-markets-oil-idUSTRE72D01W20110412

Grains -2.87%

SM -2.09% RS-2.34% RR -2.55% O -2.62% BO -2.69% S-2.83% C-3.03% W-4.85%

 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-12/wheat-tumbles-on-concern-commodity-demand-to-ebb-as-japan-crisis-escalate.html

Earnings

Earnings Monday 4;  2 above ests 1 match 1 below; 2 posted higher revs 2 lower revs

Earning Tuesday 2; 1 above 1 below; both posted revs above year-ago