Economic News

NFIB Small Business Optimism Index

	Prior	Actual
level	94.5	91.9

Lower sales & weaker outlook. Hiring and hiring outlook both up

ICSC-Goldman Store Sales

	Prior	Actual
Store Sales - W/W change	2.3 %	0.1 %
Store Sales - Y/Y	2.8 %	2.9 %

International Trade

	Prior	Prior Revised	Consensus	Consensus Range    Actual
Trade Balance Level	$-46.3 B	$-47.0 B	$-44.0 B	$-47.5 B to $-41.9 B	$-45.8 B

Imports in Food & consumer goods both rose.  Auto and capital goods imports fell. Exports fell

Import and Export Prices

	Prior	Actual
Export Prices - M/M change	1.2 %	1.5 %
Export Prices - Y/Y change	8.6 %	9.5 %
Import Prices - M/M change	1.4 %	2.7 %
Import Prices - Y/Y change	6.9 %	9.7 %

Import price rise due to 10.5% rise in energy prices

Redbook

	Prior	Actual
Store Sales Y/Y change	0.5 %	4.7 %

Treasury Budget

	Prior	Consensus	Consensus Range	Actual
Treasury Budget - Level	$-222.5 B	$-189.0 B	$-190.0 B to $-189.0 B	$-188.2 B

The deficit is +15% Outlays +11% Interest cost + 10% Receipts +7%

 Market Activity

Financials +0.49%

US +0.71%     TY+0.58% FV+0.42%TU +0.16% ED unch 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-12/treasuries-gain-first-time-in-3-days-as-u-s-auctions-32-billion-in-notes.html

Currencies

JY+1.19% SF +1.08% EC+0.35% USD -0.25% AD -0.40%        BP-0.56% CD -0.58%MP -0.74%

Softs -0.81%  

CC +1.79% KC -0.29% OJ -0.85% LB -1.38% SB -1.77% CT-2.37%

Indices  -0.95%   VIX +0.73% CRB -1.64%

NQ -0.77% ES -0.78% YM -0.93% EW -1.00%        RJ -1.27%

Metals -1.73%

GC -1.04% PL-1.16% SI -1.48% HG -1.79% PA -3.19%

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/04/12/us-markets-precious-idUSTRE73786N20110412

Energies -2.05%

NG -0.17% RB-1.27% Ethanol  -2.56% HO -2.66% CL-3.77%

http://omrpublic.iea.org/

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/04/12/us-markets-oil-idUSTRE72D01W20110412

Grains -2.87%

SM -2.09% RS-2.34% RR -2.55% O -2.62% BO -2.69% S-2.83% C-3.03% W-4.85%

 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-12/wheat-tumbles-on-concern-commodity-demand-to-ebb-as-japan-crisis-escalate.html

Earnings

Earnings Monday 4;  2 above ests 1 match 1 below; 2 posted higher revs 2 lower revs

Earning Tuesday 2; 1 above 1 below; both posted revs above year-ago

Bullet Points
#1) MBA Home Purchase Applications  for week 02.04.11

Purchase Index W/W Chg: Prior= 9.5% Act=-1.4%

Refinance Index W/W Chg; Prior=11.7% Act=-7.7%

Composite Index W/W Chg: 11.3% Act=-5.5%

Stronger-than-expected economic data has caused the average rate on 30-year mortgages  to climb 22 basis points, to 5.13%

#2)USDA Grain Report (Click to view)

The grain reports revised downward the USDA's estimates for year-end supplies. The biggest surprise was the 70 million bushel reduction of ending stocks estimate for corn. 

#3) Highlights from the EIA Weekly Supply Report 

Crude inventores: +1.9m vs est. +2.0m

Gasoline inventories: +4.66m vs est. +6.26m

Gasoline and heating oil were supported by the strength in Brent crude.  Brent’s premium to WTI rose to a record on Wednesday.

Gasoline is trading at a 28 month high despite the fact that inventories are extremely high and demand is at a 10-month low




#4) Bernanke Before Congress (Click to view)

In testimony before Congress Federal Reserve Bernanke stated that “unsustainable” budget deficits must be addressed, but he said that sharp cuts in spending would threaten the economic recovery.