CFTC COT Report for the week ending 6/2309

Energy Lrg Spec Chg
Crude 39,370 12,940
RBOB 55,247 -7,144
H Oil 31,347 971
N Gas -153,808 -445

Metals Lrg Spec Chg
Gold 166,294 -9,249
Silver 26,205 -3,190
Pall 8,085 -345
Plat 9,918 775
Copper -21,735 -3,271

Rates Lrg Spec Chg
Fed Fnd 133,471 -10,003
EuroDlr 573,437 +66,133
2 Yr 76,960 21,506
5 Yr -37,776 -24,122
10 Yr -87,147 6,580
30 Yr -85,539 241

Stk Indx Lrg Spec Chg
Mini S&P 186,464 +7,357
M Nasdaq 26,103 -32,021
(Source: CFTC)

EIA Nat Gas Inventory Report 06.25.09

For Week Ending 6.19.09
Lower 48 Nat Gas Supplies
Act +94 Est +98 Last Week +114 Year ago +85 5Yr Avg +84
Current = 2,651
Last week= 2,557 + 3.70% from last week
5 Yr Max = 2,504 +5.95% from 5 Yr Max
5 Yr Avg = 2,169 + 22.2% from 5 Yr avg
Year Ago = 2,020 + 31.2% from last year
5 Yr Min = 1,858

Summary
Working gas in storage was 2,651 Bcf as of Friday, June 19, 2009, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 94 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 631 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 482 Bcf above the 5-year average of 2,169 Bcf. In the East Region, stocks were 115 Bcf above the 5-year average following net injections of 70 Bcf. Stocks in the Producing Region were 265 Bcf above the 5-year average of 732 Bcf after a net injection of 12 Bcf. Stocks in the West Region were 102 Bcf above the 5-year average after a net addition of 12 Bcf. At 2,651 Bcf, total working gas is above the 5-year historical range.
(Source EIA)

GSH Analysis
The smaller –than-expected build is a slightly positive but the market remains well supplied. The excessive heat may also be providing underlying support. Note that July options expire today and July futures expire at the end of pit trading tomorrow

Text of FOMC Meeting

Press Release

Release Date: June 24, 2009
For immediate release
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in April suggests that the pace of economic contraction is slowing. Conditions in financial markets have generally improved in recent months. Household spending has shown further signs of stabilizing but remains constrained by ongoing job losses, lower housing wealth, and tight credit. Businesses are cutting back on fixed investment and staffing but appear to be making progress in bringing inventory stocks into better alignment with sales. Although economic activity is likely to remain weak for a time, the Committee continues to anticipate that policy actions to stabilize financial markets and institutions, fiscal and monetary stimulus, and market forces will contribute to a gradual resumption of sustainable economic growth in a context of price stability.
The prices of energy and other commodities have risen of late. However, substantial resource slack is likely to dampen cost pressures, and the Committee expects that inflation will remain subdued for some time.
In these circumstances, the Federal Reserve will employ all available tools to promote economic recovery and to preserve price stability. The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and continues to anticipate that economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period. As previously announced, to provide support to mortgage lending and housing markets and to improve overall conditions in private credit markets, the Federal Reserve will purchase a total of up to $1.25 trillion of agency mortgage-backed securities and up to $200 billion of agency debt by the end of the year. In addition, the Federal Reserve will buy up to $300 billion of Treasury securities by autumn. The Committee will continue to evaluate the timing and overall amounts of its purchases of securities in light of the evolving economic outlook and conditions in financial markets. The Federal Reserve is monitoring the size and composition of its balance sheet and will make adjustments to its credit and liquidity programs as warranted.
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Elizabeth A. Duke; Charles L. Evans; Donald L. Kohn; Jeffrey M. Lacker; Dennis P. Lockhart; Daniel K. Tarullo; Kevin M. Warsh; and Janet L. Yellen.
2009 Monetary Policy Releases

EIA Petroleum Inventory Levels

EIA Weekly Inventory Report for week ending 6.19.09
(Barrels in millions)

Crude
Stocks 353.9 -3.8 for the week; +52.1 from last year
Price $69.60 -2.53 for the week; -65.18 from last year.

Petrol
Stocks 208.9 +3.9 for the week; +0.1 from last year.
Price 187.3 -13.0 for the week; -141.7 from last year.

Distil
Stocks 152.1 +2.1 for the week; +32.7 from last year
Price 176.8 -5.2 for the week ;-203.7 from last year

Demand for crude was up on the week, while demand gasoline and distillate demand fell.
Refinery use was up 1.15% in preparation for increased holiday driving demand.

The Week Ahead 06.22.09 thru 06.26.09

Mon 06.22.09
Ags
Export Intentions
Crop Progress

Fins
None

Tues 06.23.09
Ags
None

Fins
Existing Home Sales
Richmond Fed
FOMC Meeting

Wed 06.24.09
Ags
None

Fins
Mortgage Appl
Durable Goods
New Homes Data
FOMC Announce

Energy
Oils Invents

Thurs 06.25.09
Ags
Exports

Fins
GDP
Per Con
Weekly Jobs

Energy
Nat Gas Inventories

Friday 06.26.09

Ags
None

Fins
Personal Income & Spending
Consumer Sentiment

CFTC COT Report for the week ending 6/16/09

Large Spec Change
Gold + 175,543 -14,131 Longs reduced by 7.4%
Copper -18,464 +305 Shorts reduced by 1.6%


Crude +26,430 -21,453 Longs reduced by 44.8%
Nat Gas -153,363 -13,710 Inreased shorts by 9.8%


EuroDlr +507,304 +13,957 Increased longs by 2.8%
2 Yr +55,454 -27,429
5 Yr -13,654 -22,222 New short
10 Yr -93,727 3,921 Reduced shorts by 4%


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