Wrap for 04.06.11

ECONOMIC DATA

MBA Purchase Applications

Purchase Index - W/W Change	Prev -1.7 %	Current 6.7 %
Refinance Index - W/W Change	-10.1 %	-6.2 %
Composite Index - W/W Change	-7.5 %	-2.0 %

An increase in FHA insurance rates effect 04.01.11 was the driving force behind the increase in purchase activity. Although the 30 year  rate remained steady @ 4.93% refinancing activity declined, as fewer borrowers qualify for credit.

EIA Petroleum Inventory Report

http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/weekly_petroleum_status_report/current/pdf/highlights.pdf

Market Activity

Metals +0.72%

HG +2.47% SI +1.04% PL+0.65% GC+0.61%      PA -0.83%

Read Reuters article about trade reaction to Chinese rate hike.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/04/06/markets-metals-idUSLDE7350GF20110406

Indices+0.35%

YM +0.45% ES +0.41% RJ+0.39% NQ +0.29% EW +0.22% CRB -0.4% VIX – 1.0%

Currencies+0.28%

AD+1.00% EC+0.77% SF +0.73%CD +0.34% BP +0.30% MP +0.18% USD -0.47% JY -0.70%
Read Bloomberg story on FX moves

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-06/yen-declines-on-speculation-boj-to-trail-central-banks-in-ending-stimulus.html

Grains-0.17%

SM+0.57% S+0.24%  O+0.13% BO-0.12% RR-0.21% C-0.49% W -0.51% RS -0.99%

Financials-0.37%

ED +0.01% TU-0.03% FV-0.19% TY -0.37% US -0.76%  

Energies-0.57%

CL+0.30% HO+0.09%RB -0.40% ZK -0.70% NG-2.13%
Read Bloomberg Energy story

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-06/crude-oil-futures-pares-gains-after-u-s-government-releases-supply-report.html

Softs-0.75%

CT +3.48% CC +0.81% KC -1.16% OJ -1.17% SB -3.05% LB -3.42%
Read Bloomberg Cotton story

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-06/cotton-futures-jump-most-in-two-weeks-in-new-york-on-u-s-supply-concerns.html

chart shows yesterday’s test of the 50d MA.

Market Wrap for 04.05.11

Economic Data

ICSC-Goldman Store Sales

Store Sales - W/W change	Prev 0.2 %	Current 2.3 %
Store Sales - Y/Y	2.6 %	2.8 %

 Redbook

Store Sales Y/Y change

Prev 2.6 %

Current 0.5 %

 ISM Non-Mfg Index

Composite Index - Level

Prev 59.7

Est 59.7

Range 57.7  to 68.8

Current 57.3

Growth in the service sector slowed in March. The Business Activity index fell 7 points. Employment activity fell 2 points to 53.7, which is still above 50 which indicates  that that employment activity is still moving higher but at a reduced pace. New Orders fell for the second month. Price pressure is still at elevated levels.

FOMC Minutes

FOMC Press Release

The FED sees the economic recovery is gaining traction. The minutes indicate inflation and inflationary expectations remain in check but close attention to these are merited.

Bernanke's Speech on Financial Reform

Price Activity

Metals +0.95%

SI +1.94% GC+1.66% PL+0.79% PA +0.74% HG-0.27%

Bloomberg Silver Market Story

Softs +0.26%

KC +4.76%  CT+2.82% OJ +0.48% CC-1.49%  SB-1.61% LB -3.32%

 Coffee led the "softs'complex higher on concerns over the quality of Kenyan coffee beans.

Grains +0.16%

O +1.49% RR+1.40% C+0.85% BO-0.05% RS-0.20% W-0.47% S-0.78% BM-0.95%

Add caption

Bloomberg Story on Corn

Currencies +0.05%

BP +0.99% CD+0.39% MP+0.27% EC+0.04% USD-0.05% SF-0.18% AD-0.27%  JY -0.92%

Indices +0.04%

CRB +0.37% RJ+0.28% EW+0.25% YM-0.07% ES -0.13% NQ-0.70% VIX -0.74

Energies -0.14%

ZK +0.70% RB+0.54% HO -0.01% CL -0.61% NG -1.40%

Financials -0.27%

ED -0.01% TU -0.09%  FV-0.31% US -0.36% TY -0.38% 

CFTC January '11 This Month in Futures Markets (Click to View)

The CFTC’s January ’11 addition of “This Month in Futures Markets” shows that 16 of the 22 contracts followed followed by the CFTC had increases in open interest.  

 

The largest OI gain was in the  Euro-FX contract which expanded by 18% as the ECH11 rose 3.5% for the month

 

Gold saw the largest decrease in open interest with an 8.4% drop in outstanding positions, as gold prices fell 6.2% in the month.



Hi=473.97 Q2'08 Lo=200.16 Q1'09
50% retracement=336.90
Reached 336.29 on 1.19.11

The CRB commodity price index reached a two year high (336.29) on 1.19.11 last week.
That is as close as you are going to get to a Fibbinocci 50% retracement point. Gold has lost some of its safe-haven appeal , rumors that the Saudis have increased output and demand worries are hitting the pricing of many base metals.

Charts for 12.28.10




Record high in CRB Index

 



Record high NY Silver



Record high in NY Copper



Unexpected decline in Consumer Confidence





















Larger than expected decline in housing prices

Mareket Recap for 12.21.2010

Weekly CRB chart (Source Barchart.com)

The rally in the commodity sector continues: The CRB rose to the highest level in 27 months.

Monthly Cotton Chart (Source: Barchart)

Cotton trading was locked "limit up" for the 2nd day as cotton prices moved sharply higher
on continued worries about the supply/demand picture for cotton. Chinese demand remains strong while production from Pakistan, the world's third largest producer remains constrained after the flooding earlier this year.

Monthly NY Copper chart (Source: Barchart.com)

Copper prices set records on exchanges in London and New York on renewed Chinese buying and word that the operator of the worlds third largest copper mine had declared "force majeure" on copper shipment obligations.  With demand outpacing supplies, analysts are calling for further price increases in 2011. Commodity fund buying and talk of new copper backed ETF products also underpinned prices in the red metal.

ICSC-Goldman Store Sales Released on 12/21/2010 7:45:00 AM For wk12/18, 2010
                                            Prior               Actual
Store Sales - W/W change     0.8 %              1.7 %
Store Sales - Y/Y                   3.1 %              4.2 %

Redbook Released on 12/21/2010 8:55:00 AM For wk12/18, 2010
                                       Prior        Actual
Store Sales Y/Y change       2.5 %    3.8 %

Retail Sales Data (Click for website.)

CFTC COT Report for the week ending 6/2309

Energy Lrg Spec Chg
Crude 39,370 12,940
RBOB 55,247 -7,144
H Oil 31,347 971
N Gas -153,808 -445

Metals Lrg Spec Chg
Gold 166,294 -9,249
Silver 26,205 -3,190
Pall 8,085 -345
Plat 9,918 775
Copper -21,735 -3,271

Rates Lrg Spec Chg
Fed Fnd 133,471 -10,003
EuroDlr 573,437 +66,133
2 Yr 76,960 21,506
5 Yr -37,776 -24,122
10 Yr -87,147 6,580
30 Yr -85,539 241

Stk Indx Lrg Spec Chg
Mini S&P 186,464 +7,357
M Nasdaq 26,103 -32,021
(Source: CFTC)