Market Report for 4.25.11

Economic Data

 New Home Sales

New Home Sales - Level - SAAR

Prev 250 K

Rev 270 K

Est 280 K

Range 270 K to 300 K

Act 300 K

The median price did post an increase from last month’s 8-year low. The distressed sales of existing homes continues to weigh on the new home sector.

Grains+1.63%

RR+3.47% C+3.42% W+3.31% O+2.12% S+0.65% SM+0.64% BO-0.10% RS-0.45%

Technical Note: May Rough Rice breaks above it's 50d MA for the 1st time since late February. The market is attempting to fill in a price gap left on daily charts.

The USDA crop progress reports shows that rice plantings are 32% below last year and 13% below its 4 year average.

Weather concerns rallied the grain complex. (April is on track to be the wettest on record for Illinois, Indiana and Ohio while dry weather is  stressing crops in the southern Great Plains, China and parts of Europe.)

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-25/corn-wheat-advance-as-adverse-weather-threatens-to-reduce-global-harvests.html

The USDA Crop Progress reports shows plantings are behind schedule and crop conditions are blow normal.

http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/current/CropProg/CropProg-04-25-2011.txt

Metals+0.22%

SI+2.88% GC+0.45% PL+0.37% PA-0.55% HG-2.26%

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/04/25/markets-global-idUSN2521875120110425

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-25/silver-surges-to-all-time-high-on-accelerating-inflation-industry-demand.html?pid=sfc

Financials+0.20%

ZB+0.39% ZN+0.27% ZF+0.22% ZU+0.06% ED-0.01%

 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-24/gross-s-bearish-treasury-bet-clashes-with-dealers-seeing-scope-for-rally.html

Energies+0.11%

ZK+1.51% RB+0.36% CL-0.07% HO-0.60% NG-0.86%

Indices+0.05% CRB -0.15% VIX -2.51%

NQ+0.17% EW+0.14% ES+0.02% RJ-0.05% YM-0.11%

Currencies-0.06%

SF+0.29% EC+0.08% JY+0.07% USD unch MP-0.06% AD-0.22% CD-0.25% BP-0.28%

Softs-0.30%

LB+0.82% CT+0.76% CC-0.06% OJ-0.53% KC-1.17%         SB-1.61%

Market Wrap for 4.20.11

Economic Reports

MBA Purchase Applications

Purchase Index - W/W Change	Prev      -4.7 %	Curr 10.0 %
Refinance Index - W/W Change	-7.7 %	2.7 %
Composite Index - W/W Change	-6.7 %	5.3 %

Existing Home Sales

Existing Home Sales - Level - SAAR	Prev 4.88 M	Rev 4.920 M	Est 5.000 M	Range 4.750 M to 5.100 M	Act 5.10 M
Existing Home Sales - M/M Change	-9.6 %	-8.9 %			3.7 %
Existing Home Sales - Yr/Yr Change	-2.8 %				-6.3 %

Existing home sales rose 3.7% last month to an annual rate of 5.1mil. The median Price was up 2.2% to $159,600. Y-O-Y prices fell 5.9%. Distressed sales made up 40% of all transactions. 35% of sales were for cash.

EIA Petroleum Inventories

http://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf

Stocks		Change From Last
04/15/11		Week	Year
Crude Oil	357.0	-2.3	1.1
Gasoline	208.1	-1.6	-16.8
Distillate	148.3	-2.5	-0.5
Propane	26.386	-0.360	-4.412

Gasoline Demand (Million Barrels per Day)

Week Ending			Year Ago
04/01/11	04/08/11	04/15/11	04/16/10
8.853	9.181	9.062	9.152

http://platts.com/PressReleases/2011/042011b

Market Activity

Metals+2.26%

PA +4.06% SI+2.81% HG+2.65% PL+1.85% GC+0.41%

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_COMMODITIES_REVIEW_SUMMARY_BOX?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT

Indices+1.82% CRB +0.30% VIX -4.97%

RJ+2.08% NQ+1.93% EW+1.89% ES+1.53% YM+1.39%

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-20/vix-retreats-to-lowest-since-2007-as-corporate-earnings-exceed-estimates.html

Energies+0.92%

CL+2.91% HO+1.91% RB+1.10% NG+0.94% ZK-2.14%

Currencies+0.60%

AD+1.66% EC+1.26% SF+1.24% MP+0.59% BP+0.55%     CD+0.38% JY+0.03%

Grains+0.17%

RR+1.61% S+1.17% BO+1.06% SM+0.81% RS+0.63% W-0.10% O-1.65% C-2.17%

Softs-0.11%

SB+3.83% OJ+1.41% KC+1.10% CC+0.61% CT-3.50% LB-4.10%

Because of the holiday shortened week, front-month (May) cotton was sharply lower as traders liquidated long positions ahead of 1^st notice day, which is Monday

Financials-0.28%

ED+0.01%  ZT-0.02%  ZF-0.23% ZN-0.31%  ZB-0.46%

Market Wrap for 04.05.11

Economic Data

ICSC-Goldman Store Sales

Store Sales - W/W change	Prev 0.2 %	Current 2.3 %
Store Sales - Y/Y	2.6 %	2.8 %

 Redbook

Store Sales Y/Y change

Prev 2.6 %

Current 0.5 %

 ISM Non-Mfg Index

Composite Index - Level

Prev 59.7

Est 59.7

Range 57.7  to 68.8

Current 57.3

Growth in the service sector slowed in March. The Business Activity index fell 7 points. Employment activity fell 2 points to 53.7, which is still above 50 which indicates  that that employment activity is still moving higher but at a reduced pace. New Orders fell for the second month. Price pressure is still at elevated levels.

FOMC Minutes

FOMC Press Release

The FED sees the economic recovery is gaining traction. The minutes indicate inflation and inflationary expectations remain in check but close attention to these are merited.

Bernanke's Speech on Financial Reform

Price Activity

Metals +0.95%

SI +1.94% GC+1.66% PL+0.79% PA +0.74% HG-0.27%

Bloomberg Silver Market Story

Softs +0.26%

KC +4.76%  CT+2.82% OJ +0.48% CC-1.49%  SB-1.61% LB -3.32%

 Coffee led the "softs'complex higher on concerns over the quality of Kenyan coffee beans.

Grains +0.16%

O +1.49% RR+1.40% C+0.85% BO-0.05% RS-0.20% W-0.47% S-0.78% BM-0.95%

Add caption

Bloomberg Story on Corn

Currencies +0.05%

BP +0.99% CD+0.39% MP+0.27% EC+0.04% USD-0.05% SF-0.18% AD-0.27%  JY -0.92%

Indices +0.04%

CRB +0.37% RJ+0.28% EW+0.25% YM-0.07% ES -0.13% NQ-0.70% VIX -0.74

Energies -0.14%

ZK +0.70% RB+0.54% HO -0.01% CL -0.61% NG -1.40%

Financials -0.27%

ED -0.01% TU -0.09%  FV-0.31% US -0.36% TY -0.38% 

03.22.11 Market Wrap

Economic Data

ICSC-Goldman Store Sales

Store Sales - W/W change	Prior 0.1 %	Actual -0.1 %
Store Sales - Y/Y	3.1 %	3.0 %

Redbook Same Store Sales

Store Sales Y/Y change

Prior 2.0 %

Actual 2.4 %

Market Activity

Energies +0.62%

NG +2.11% CL +1.65%     HO +0.60% Ethanol +0.04% RB +0.01%

CHINESE OIL DEMAND

Read Platts Story on Chinese demand

NG sees short-covering as the market trades through 50d & 100d moving averages See charts

NGJ11

Softs +0.13%

CT +3.52% CC +2.32% OJ +0.09% SB -1.16% KC -1.28% LB -3.09%

Rainy weather in Australian growing areas may be damaging cotton crop
Read Bloomberg Story

Rising violence in the Ivory Coast worries cocoa traders

Currencies +0.12%

AD +0.51% BP +0.36% SF +0.17% JY +0.17% USD +0.03%    MP -0.09% EC -0.13% CD -0.13%

Metals +0.12%

SI +0.80% HG +0.56% GC -0.10%  PL -0.21% PA-0.42%

Financials -0.08%

ED -0.01% TU -0.03% US -0.05% FV -0.11% TY -0.14%

Grains -0.36%

RR  -0.04% W -0.07% S -0.07% SM -0.14% BO -0.27% C -0.29% O -2.00%

Indices -0.40%

NQ -0.11% DOW -0.13%   ES -0.35% VIX -0.46% Midcap -0.65% Russell 2K -0.68%

SPX

VIX

THE 50d MA providing overhead resistance in the SPX, while the same MA is supporting the VIX index

03.16.11 Review

Economic Data

#1) MBA Purchase Application

Purchase Index - W/W Change	Prev 12.5 %	Act       -4.0 %
Refinance Index - W/W Change	17.2 %	0.9 %
Composite Index - W/W Change	15.5 %	-0.7 %

Homes sales were not able to keep up last week’s pace, although refinancing activity increased due to lower interest rates. The average 30 yr rate fell to 4.79% a 2 month low.

Housing Starts

Starts - Level - SAAR	Prev 0.596 M	Rev 0.618 M	Est 0.560 M	Range 0.540 M to 0.590 M	Act 0.479 M
Permits - Level - SAAR	0.562 M				0.517 M

Starts in both multi-family and single-family home.

The decline was seen in all regions

PPI

PPI - M/M change	Prev 0.8 %	Rev 0.7 %	Range 0.3 % to 1.1 %	Act 1.6 %
PPI -Yr/Yr change				5.8 %
PPI less food & energy - M/M change	0.5 %	0.2 %	0.1 % to 0.4 %	0.2 %
PPI less food & energy - Yr/Yr change				1.9 %

Both food and energy costs continue rack up healthy gains.

ABC News Report on Food Prices

Current Account

Current Account

Prev $-127.2 B

Rev $-125.5 B

Act $-113.3 B

The deficit relative to GDP for the 4^Q10 fell to 3.1% from 3.4% in 3^Q10.

Weekly Petroleum report View Summary Here

Oil and petroleum inventories remain above their average for this time of year. Gasoline and distillate inventories declined more than expected. Product demand remains above year-ago levels:

Gasoline +1.4% Distillates +3.8% Jet Fuel +4.5%

Market Activity

Financials +0.63%

T-Bond +1.13%  10-Yr +0.86% 5-Yr +0.52% 2-Yr -.13% E$ -0.02%

Bloomberg.com of Interest Rates

Energies +0.54%

RB +1.73%         HO+1.69% CL+1.20% NG +0.15% Ethanol -2.05%

CMEGroup Energy report

Metals +0.21%

HG +1.27% SI +0.45% GC +0.31%   PL -0.50%          PA -0.97%

Currencies -0.20%

JY +1.37% SF +1.02% U.S. $ +0.33% BP -0.43% EC -0.66% A$ -0.79% C$ -0.94% MP -1.27%

Reuters on the Yen

Grains -0.42%

Beans +1.34% SM +1.09% BO +0.15% W-0.86% RR-0.89% O -2.78% C -3.07%

Bloomberg.com on Corn

Softs -0.60%

SB +0.78% LB +0.53% KC +0.44% OJ -0.99% CC -1.17% CT -3.05%

Indices -0.85%

VIX +6.2% Midcap -0.80% Russell -0.85% ES -1.71% NQ -1.82% DOW -1.91%

Chart Source: Barchart.com

Chart Source: Barchart.com