Double Dose of Employment Data @ 7:30 CT
June '09 Employment Situation Report
Cons: -350,000 vs -345,000 prior Unemployment Rate 9.6% vs 9.4% prior
Weekly Claims:
Cons:619,000 vs 627,000 prior
Factory Orders @ 9:00 CT
Cons: 1.4% vs 0.07% prior
EIA Natural Gas Inventory Report @ 9:30 CT
Cons: +75 vs +104 prior
Holiday Notice:
Markets close and reopen for the next trade date at their regular times today.
On Friday 07.03.09 Trading will halt as follows:
Equities @10.30 CT Financials @ 12:00CT Oils & Metals @ 12:30CT
Wednesday, July 1, 2009
EIA Weekly Oil Supply Data
EIA Est EIA Actual API Actual Vs Est
Crude -2.0 -3.7 -6.8 -2.0
RBOB +2.0 +2.3 +0.2
Dist +1.5 +2.9 +0.75
Should be a bit negative. Gasoline & distillates up more than expected. Crude fell more than estimates, but not as much as the surprising API numbers last night. Weakening demand in all 3 categories and an increase of Cushing, OK supplies should also serve to keep a lid on prices.
( I am still experiencing problems with the formatting of data.Please bear with me.)
Crude -2.0 -3.7 -6.8 -2.0
RBOB +2.0 +2.3 +0.2
Dist +1.5 +2.9 +0.75
Should be a bit negative. Gasoline & distillates up more than expected. Crude fell more than estimates, but not as much as the surprising API numbers last night. Weakening demand in all 3 categories and an increase of Cushing, OK supplies should also serve to keep a lid on prices.
( I am still experiencing problems with the formatting of data.Please bear with me.)
Tuesday, June 30, 2009
Notes on the 2nd Quarter
At the close of 1Q’09 I sent clients the FIA’s “Annual Volume Survey” to assail doubts they were having over their trading systems. In essence I told them that it was a failure of the “marketplace” itself that was to blame for their trading system’s sub-par performance. I compared volume and open interest from 1Q08 to 1 Q09 to illustrate how the debt crisis was impacting the market place. At that time, corn OI was down 42% from the prior year and volume was 25% below year ago levels. In crude oil, OI was down 16% with volume down 23%...
During this quarter corn OI jumped 25% m-o-m and is now 2% below 2Q08.
While crude oil OI is 20% below same time last year numbers, with volume almost 50% below year-ago numbers. In the financials, both OI and volume levels are about 50% below last year.
But these y-o-y comparisons don’t give an accurate assessment of where the markets are today. If you will remember, last year had two distinct phases: the boom in the first half & the bust in the second half. Investor activity peaked in the second quarter and then quickly disappeared as dire financial news spread through the second half of the year.
Year-to-date activity levels have been mixed so far this year as this table illustrates;
%Y-T-D Change Volume OI
Corn +12% +17%
Crude +1% -5%
Ten Year Note +30% -3%
So for now, a systemic market collapse has been avoided and people still have to eat (grains), drive (crude) and emerging markets will continue to build industrial plants (base metals).
Technically, commodity prices have plenty of room to rebound on the upside after last year’s dramatic collapse
During this quarter corn OI jumped 25% m-o-m and is now 2% below 2Q08.
While crude oil OI is 20% below same time last year numbers, with volume almost 50% below year-ago numbers. In the financials, both OI and volume levels are about 50% below last year.
But these y-o-y comparisons don’t give an accurate assessment of where the markets are today. If you will remember, last year had two distinct phases: the boom in the first half & the bust in the second half. Investor activity peaked in the second quarter and then quickly disappeared as dire financial news spread through the second half of the year.
Year-to-date activity levels have been mixed so far this year as this table illustrates;
%Y-T-D Change Volume OI
Corn +12% +17%
Crude +1% -5%
Ten Year Note +30% -3%
So for now, a systemic market collapse has been avoided and people still have to eat (grains), drive (crude) and emerging markets will continue to build industrial plants (base metals).
Technically, commodity prices have plenty of room to rebound on the upside after last year’s dramatic collapse
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