Commodity Movements.

#1) Silver

Silver is trading its highest level in 30+ years.
Rumors of a short squeeze Click Here
COMEX Silver stocksat 5yr low. Click Here







#2) Coffee                                           

Coffee inventories are at the lowest level since 2000
The International Coffee Organization says global supplies will be around 13million bags, the lowest on record.
Demand remains strong. In the past 12 months Starbucks shares have risen 45% and Green Mountain Coffee shares ar up 47%



#3) Cotton

Monthly Cotton

A combination of increasing global demand and adverse weather conditions are the main factors

1 year Cotton w/ 200d MA

CTH11 was limit-up Wednesday & Thursday before ending the week limit-down on Friday. A cotton advisory service released its 1st estimate of the season and said they see output up 13%, with a 4% increase in consumption







#4) Cocoa

Ongoing unrest in  Cote-d'Ivoire and strong demand has cocoa prices at a 32 year high. 

Related Charts

#5) CRB Index












#6) Dollar Index

Financial Futures COT Report Click Here

Commodity Futures COT Report Click Here

 #1) Consumer Price Index 

------------------------------------	Prior	Consensus	Actual
CPI - M/M change	0.4 %	0.3 %	0.4 %
CPI less food & energy	0.1 %	0.1 %	0.2 %

                   

Energy Prices +2.1% Gasoline +3.5%
Food Prices +0.5%








#2) Weekly Jobs Report (Click to view)

	Prior Revised	Consensus	Actual
New Claims - Level	385 K	385 K	410 K
4-week Moving Average - Level	416.0 K		417.75 K

The employment situation is a serious risk to the economic recovery

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#3)Leading Indicators

­­­­­	Prior Revised	Consensus	Actual
Leading Indicators - M/M change	0.8 %	0.2 %	0.1 %

#4) Philly FED

	Prior	Consensus	Actual
General Business Conditions Index - Level	19.3	22.0	35.9

#5) Natural gas Storage Report (click to view)

Prior Revised

Consensus

Actual

New Claims - Level

385 K

385 K

410 K

4-week Moving Average - Level

416.0 K

417.75 K

­­­­­

Prior Revised

Consensus

Actual

Leading Indicators - M/M change

0.8 %

0.2 %

0.1 %

Prior

Consensus

Actual

General Business Conditions Index - Level

19.3 

22.0 

35.9 

#1) MBA Purchase Applications   

_________________________Prior__________Actual

Purchase Index - W/W Change---------	-1.4 %	-5.9 %
Refinance Index - W/W Change	-7.7 %	-11.4 %
Composite Index - W/W Change	-5.5 %	-9.5 %

Rising interest rates caused refinancing activity to drop to is lowest level in 2-1/2  years. The 30yr mortgage rate is 5.12% 

#2) Housing Starts

                    Prior___Est____Act

Starts -	0.520m	0.540m	0.596m
Permits -	0.635m		0.562m

Mixed results: Starts increased versus Permits falling

Starts by region: Northeast +41.8% Midwest +36.4% South +15.8% and West -9.7%

Starts - 

0.520m

0.540m

0.596m 

Permits - 

0.635m

0.562m

#3) PPI

___Prior____Est___Act

PPI - M/M change	0.9 %	0.8 %	0.8 %
PPI less food & energy - M/M change	0.2 %	0.2 %	0.5 %

Headline and core numbers show signs that inflation is picking up.

PPI - M/M change

0.9 %

0.8 %

0.8 %

PPI less food & energy - M/M change

0.2 %

0.2 %

0.5 %

#4)This Week in Petroleum (Click to view report) 

(Click to view Data)

#5) FOMC Minutes

The pace and magnitude of improvements in the labor markets continues to disappoint the FED. Economic growth prospects for 2011 were seen as improving but they see little change in the employment and inflation picture 

------------------------------ Prior Consensus Actual
Retail Sales - M/M change 0.6 % 0.5 % 0.3 %
less autos - M/M change 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.3 %

I apologize for these formatting issues

Retail Sales










--------------------------    Prior Consensus Actual
Business Conditions Index - 11.92 15.0 15.43



 

Empire Index

 Activity growth is accelerating

--------------------------------- Prior Actual
Export Prices - M/M change 0.7 % 1.2 %
Export Prices - Y/Y change 6.5 % 6.8 %
Import Prices - M/M change 1.1 % 1.5 %
Import Prices - Y/Y change 4.8 % 5.3 %


Import?Export Prices Inflationary pressure remains isolated to energy and food: Energy +14.3% Food +14.8%

---------------------------- Prior Consensus Actual
Inventories - M/M change 0.4 % 0.7 % 0.8 %



Overnight News
China
CPI rises 4.9% in January +0.3% from December

y/y% Change: Prior= 4.6% Est=5.4% Act+4.9% Rising food prices (up 10.3%) was the leading factor in the CPI increase

China's PPI up 6.6% in January +0.9% from December
y/y% Change: Prior= 4.6% Est=5.4% Act+4.9%


BOJ Interest Rate Announcement