Did The Futures Markets Have Their Own "Flash Crash"

What Really Caused The Record Drop In Oil Prices? Reuters Story from Huffingtonpost.com

SPX 11-09 TIL 08-10

Equity "Flash Crash"

SPX WEEKLY

CRB Daily

CRB Weekly

Commodity "Flash Crash"

Commodity Movements.

#1) Silver

Silver is trading its highest level in 30+ years.
Rumors of a short squeeze Click Here
COMEX Silver stocksat 5yr low. Click Here







#2) Coffee                                           

Coffee inventories are at the lowest level since 2000
The International Coffee Organization says global supplies will be around 13million bags, the lowest on record.
Demand remains strong. In the past 12 months Starbucks shares have risen 45% and Green Mountain Coffee shares ar up 47%



#3) Cotton

Monthly Cotton

A combination of increasing global demand and adverse weather conditions are the main factors

1 year Cotton w/ 200d MA

CTH11 was limit-up Wednesday & Thursday before ending the week limit-down on Friday. A cotton advisory service released its 1st estimate of the season and said they see output up 13%, with a 4% increase in consumption







#4) Cocoa

Ongoing unrest in  Cote-d'Ivoire and strong demand has cocoa prices at a 32 year high. 

Related Charts

#5) CRB Index












#6) Dollar Index

Financial Futures COT Report Click Here

Commodity Futures COT Report Click Here



Hi=473.97 Q2'08 Lo=200.16 Q1'09
50% retracement=336.90
Reached 336.29 on 1.19.11

The CRB commodity price index reached a two year high (336.29) on 1.19.11 last week.
That is as close as you are going to get to a Fibbinocci 50% retracement point. Gold has lost some of its safe-haven appeal , rumors that the Saudis have increased output and demand worries are hitting the pricing of many base metals.

Charts for 12.28.10




Record high in CRB Index

 



Record high NY Silver



Record high in NY Copper



Unexpected decline in Consumer Confidence





















Larger than expected decline in housing prices

Mareket Recap for 12.21.2010

Weekly CRB chart (Source Barchart.com)

The rally in the commodity sector continues: The CRB rose to the highest level in 27 months.

Monthly Cotton Chart (Source: Barchart)

Cotton trading was locked "limit up" for the 2nd day as cotton prices moved sharply higher
on continued worries about the supply/demand picture for cotton. Chinese demand remains strong while production from Pakistan, the world's third largest producer remains constrained after the flooding earlier this year.

Monthly NY Copper chart (Source: Barchart.com)

Copper prices set records on exchanges in London and New York on renewed Chinese buying and word that the operator of the worlds third largest copper mine had declared "force majeure" on copper shipment obligations.  With demand outpacing supplies, analysts are calling for further price increases in 2011. Commodity fund buying and talk of new copper backed ETF products also underpinned prices in the red metal.

ICSC-Goldman Store Sales Released on 12/21/2010 7:45:00 AM For wk12/18, 2010
                                            Prior               Actual
Store Sales - W/W change     0.8 %              1.7 %
Store Sales - Y/Y                   3.1 %              4.2 %

Redbook Released on 12/21/2010 8:55:00 AM For wk12/18, 2010
                                       Prior        Actual
Store Sales Y/Y change       2.5 %    3.8 %

Retail Sales Data (Click for website.)