04.15.11 Market Wrap

Economic Data

CN:Consumer Price Index

	Prior	Consensus	Actual
M/M % Change			-0.2
Y/Y % Change	4.9	5.2	5.4

 CN:GDP

Y/Y % Change

9.8

9.6

9.7

http://english.people.com.cn/90001/90778/90862/7351423.html

CN:Industrial Production
Yr/Yr % change                    14.9 %                      14.0 %              14.4 %

CN:Producer Price Index

M/M % Change			0.6
Y/Y % Change	7.2	7.2	7.3

CN:Retail Sales 

M/M % Change			1.3
Y/Y % Change	11.6	16.5	17.4

http://english.people.com.cn/90001/90778/90862/index.html

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-15/china-economy-grows-more-than-forecast-9-7-as-prices-jump.html

US: CPI

CPI - M/M change	Prior 0.5 %	Est 0.5 %	Range 0.3 % to 0.5 %	Act 0.5 %
CPI - Y/Y change	2.2 %			2.7 %
CPI less food & energy	0.2 %	0.2 %	0.1 % to 0.2 %	0.1 %
CPI less food & energy - Y/Y change	1.1 %			1.2 %

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-consumer-prices-climb-05-in-march-2011-04-15-848510

US: Empire State Index

General Business Conditions Index - Level

17.5

17.5

8.0  to 21.1

21.7

http://www.newyorkfed.org/survey/empire/empiresurvey_overview.html

US: Industrial Production

Production - M/M change	Prev -0.1 %	Rev 0.1 %	Est 0.6 %	Range 0.4 % to 0.9 %	Act 0.8 %
Capacity Utilization Rate - Level	76.3 %	76.9 %	77.3 %	76.7 % to 77.6 %	77.4 %

Market Activity

Softs+1.56%

CC+4.32% LB+3.43% KC+2.02% SB+0.61% CT-0.27% OJ-0.76%          

 Today was First Notice day for the May Cocoa contract

Indices+0.70% CRB +0.28% VIX -2.48%

EW +0.99% RJ +0.86% ES +0.65% YM+0.61% NQ+0.39%

Energies+0.65%

RB+1.68% CL+1.43% HO+1.10% NG-0.76% Ethanol -0.80%

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-15/crude-oil-futures-pare-declines-after-u-s-industrial-production-increases.html

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-15/crude-oil-futures-pare-declines-after-u-s-industrial-production-increases.htm

Financalals+0.53%

US+0.94% TY+0.51% FV+0.40% TU +0.14% ED +0.01%

Metals+0.33%

SI +2.10% GC+0.92% PL-0.04% HG-0.62% PA-0.79%

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-15/copper-ends-worst-run-since-january-pares-weekly-drop-correct-.html

Currencies+0.07%

MP+0.47% JY+0.36% AD+0.29% USD+0.19% CD unch   SF-0.09% BP-0.28%  EC-0.38%      

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/04/15/g-idUSN1528868420110415

Grains-0.08%

SM+0.79% W0.51% O+0.26% S+0.06%BO-0.05% RR-0.22% RS-0.35%Corn-1.62%

Commodity COT Report ( Combined)
Financial Futures COT (Futures & Options)

03.21.11 Wrap

Economic Data

Existing Home Sales Existing Home Sales - Level - SAAR	Prior 5.36 M	Revised 5.40 M	Est 5.150 M	Range 5.000 M to 5.230 M	Actual 4.88 M
Existing Home Sales - M/M Change	2.7 %	3.4 %			-9.6 %
Existing Home Sales - Yr/Yr Change	5.3 %				-2.8 %

Home sales  fell 10% last month and are down 2.8% y-o-y. Both single-family and condo sales declined. Existing Home sales peaked in 2005. Distressed sales were 39% of sales transaction. 33% of sales were cash transactions.. In February, the median price fell 1.1% to $156k. 

Story from thestreet.com

Market Activity

Indices +1.70%  Story from Reuters

Midcap +1.97%  Russell 2K +1.96% NQ +1.78% ES+1.43% Mini Dow +1.40% VIX -7.49%     

Metals  +1.13%

SI +3.04% PA +2.02% PL +1.31% GC +0.82% HG -1.23% 

                      

Energies +0.68%

RB +1.58% CL +1.22% HO +0.99% Ethanol +0.04% NG -0.31% 

Bloomberg story on Gasoline

Currencies +0.35%

AD +0.94% CD +0.79% MP +0.70%               BP+0.60% EC +0.49% JY-0.14% SF -0.38% USD -0.41%

Grains +0.20%

RR +1.47% C+0.44% BO +0.20% S +0.04% W-0.28% SM -0.41% O -0.57%

Financials -0.25%       

ED -0.01% TU -0.09% US -0.23%     FV -0.35%      TY-0.41%

Softs -0.32%

CC +1.98%     KC +0.29%     LB unch CT -0.08%    SB -0.83%       OJ -3.30%

Charts

 

Commodity Movements.

#1) Silver

Silver is trading its highest level in 30+ years.
Rumors of a short squeeze Click Here
COMEX Silver stocksat 5yr low. Click Here







#2) Coffee                                           

Coffee inventories are at the lowest level since 2000
The International Coffee Organization says global supplies will be around 13million bags, the lowest on record.
Demand remains strong. In the past 12 months Starbucks shares have risen 45% and Green Mountain Coffee shares ar up 47%



#3) Cotton

Monthly Cotton

A combination of increasing global demand and adverse weather conditions are the main factors

1 year Cotton w/ 200d MA

CTH11 was limit-up Wednesday & Thursday before ending the week limit-down on Friday. A cotton advisory service released its 1st estimate of the season and said they see output up 13%, with a 4% increase in consumption







#4) Cocoa

Ongoing unrest in  Cote-d'Ivoire and strong demand has cocoa prices at a 32 year high. 

Related Charts

#5) CRB Index












#6) Dollar Index

Financial Futures COT Report Click Here

Commodity Futures COT Report Click Here

CFTC January '11 This Month in Futures Markets (Click to View)

The CFTC’s January ’11 addition of “This Month in Futures Markets” shows that 16 of the 22 contracts followed followed by the CFTC had increases in open interest.  

 

The largest OI gain was in the  Euro-FX contract which expanded by 18% as the ECH11 rose 3.5% for the month

 

Gold saw the largest decrease in open interest with an 8.4% drop in outstanding positions, as gold prices fell 6.2% in the month.