Economic Data

MBA Purchase Applications

Purchase Index - W/W Change	Prior          -3.2 %	Actual 1.5 %
Refinance Index - W/W Change	13.2 %	0.9 %
Composite Index - W/W Change	7.8 %	1.1 %

Durable Goods Orders

New Orders - M/M change Prior 2.5 % Rev 4.4 % Est        -3.0 % Range                      -5.7 % to 0.5 % Act              - 3.6 % New Orders - Yr/Yr Change 10.5 % 14.1 % 5.3 % Ex-transportation - M/M 1.3 % 2.5 % -1.5 % Ex-transportation - Yr/Yr 6.1 % 8.2 % 6.7 %

From Briefing.com:

Highlights: Durable orders fell 3.6% in April after increasing an upwardly revised 4.4% (from 4.1%) in March. This was the biggest decline since October 2010.

• The Briefing.com consensus expected durable goods orders to decline 2.0%.

Read more: http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicReleases/durord.htm#ixzz1NOsaS7Gx

Orders for durable goods fall 3.6% in April Airline, auto declines account for bulk of reversal, U.S. data indicate

FHFA House Price Index

M/M change	Prev         -1.6 %	Revised       -1.5 %	Act    -0.3 %
Y/Y change	-5.7 %	-5.5 %	-5.8 %

EIA Petroleum Status Report

Crude oil inventories (weekly change)	Prior          0.0 M barrels	Current             0.6 M barrels
Gasoline (weekly change)	0.1 M barrels	3.8 M barrels
Distillates (weekly change)	-1.2 M barrels	-2.0 M barrels

 

Weekly Petroleum Status Report

Analysis of US EIA data: US middle distillate inventories drop as ULSD demand surges

U.S. Oil Import Dependence: declining no matter how you measure it

 

Market Activity

Softs+2.53%

LB+3.61% CC+3.40% SB+3.33% OJ+2.22% KC+1.40%      CT+1.40%

Commodities: Slow Boat to China Big Boost for Canada Lumber-2

Metals+2.04%

SI+4.74% HG+2.33% PA+1.75% PL+1.10% GC+0.12%

PRECIOUS METALS: Gold, Silver Rise On Safe Haven Buying

Energies+1.34

HO+2.44% CL+1.62% RB+1.12% ZK +1.03% NG+0.62%

Oil hits 2-week high on U.S. distillate draw, dollar

Grains+0.96%

O+2.50% W2.15% C1.23%  BO+0.84% RS+0.57% S+0.35% RR +0.30% SM-0.25%

Evening markets: wheat rises, dismissing Russia export risk

Indices+0.72% CRB +1.57% VIX -1.91%

RJ+1.16% EW+0.62% NQ+0.35%         ES+0.32% YM+0.28%

U.S. stocks end higher after 3-session drop

Currencies+0.11%

SF+0.73% BP+0.59% USD unch MP unch CD -0.07% JY-0.12% EC-0.18% AD-0.25%

Financials-0.01%

ZF+0.12% ZN+0.06% ZT+0.02% ED unch ZB-0.10%           

#1) MBA Purchase Applications   

_________________________Prior__________Actual

Purchase Index - W/W Change---------	-1.4 %	-5.9 %
Refinance Index - W/W Change	-7.7 %	-11.4 %
Composite Index - W/W Change	-5.5 %	-9.5 %

Rising interest rates caused refinancing activity to drop to is lowest level in 2-1/2  years. The 30yr mortgage rate is 5.12% 

#2) Housing Starts

                    Prior___Est____Act

Starts -	0.520m	0.540m	0.596m
Permits -	0.635m		0.562m

Mixed results: Starts increased versus Permits falling

Starts by region: Northeast +41.8% Midwest +36.4% South +15.8% and West -9.7%

Starts - 

0.520m

0.540m

0.596m 

Permits - 

0.635m

0.562m

#3) PPI

___Prior____Est___Act

PPI - M/M change	0.9 %	0.8 %	0.8 %
PPI less food & energy - M/M change	0.2 %	0.2 %	0.5 %

Headline and core numbers show signs that inflation is picking up.

PPI - M/M change

0.9 %

0.8 %

0.8 %

PPI less food & energy - M/M change

0.2 %

0.2 %

0.5 %

#4)This Week in Petroleum (Click to view report) 

(Click to view Data)

#5) FOMC Minutes

The pace and magnitude of improvements in the labor markets continues to disappoint the FED. Economic growth prospects for 2011 were seen as improving but they see little change in the employment and inflation picture 

Home Purchase Applications For wk1/21, 2011

__________________________Prior __Actual

Purchase Index - W/W Change -1.9 % -8.7 %

Refinance Index - W/W Change 7.7 % -15.3 %
Composite Index - W/W Change 5.0 % -12.9 %
Bad weather and a holiday shortened week was thought to the reasons behind the sharp drop in these home financing indexes.

New Home Sales For wk1/21, 2011

_____________Prior __Est___ActualHome Sales     280k     300k    329k



 EIA Weekly Petroleum Report


Crude Oil Supplies as of 1/21/11
340.6 up 4.8 for the week Up 13.9 from yr-ago
Crude Oil Prices
89.11 Down 2.43 for the week Up 14.57 from yr-ago







Gasoline Stocks as fo 1/21/11
230.1 Up 2.4 for the week Up 0.6 from Yr-ago
Prices
2.459 Down 0.036 for the week Up 0.493 frm Yr-ago



Distillate Stocks
165.7 Down 0.1 for the week  Up 8. from Yr-ago
Prices
2.651 Up 0.006 for the week Up 0.709 from Yr-ago

FOMC Minutes

Excerpt from press release:

For immediate release:

"Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in December confirms that the economic recovery is continuing, though at a rate that has been insufficient to bring about a significant improvement in labor market conditions. Growth in household spending picked up late last year, but remains constrained by high unemployment, modest income growth, lower housing wealth, and tight credit. Business spending on equipment and software is rising, while investment in nonresidential structures is still weak. Employers remain reluctant to add to payrolls. The housing sector continues to be depressed. Although commodity prices have risen, longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable, and measures of underlying inflation have been trending downward."

Beige Book Release (Click to view)

"Reports from the twelve Federal Reserve Districts suggest that economic activity continued to expand moderately from November through December. Conditions were said to be improving in the Boston, New York, Philadelphia, and Richmond Districts. Activity increased modestly to moderately in the Cleveland, Atlanta, Chicago, St. Louis, Kansas City, and Dallas Districts. The economy of the Minneapolis District "continued its moderate recovery," while that of the San Francisco District "firmed further" in the reporting period leading up to the close of 2010. Conditions were generally said to be better in Districts' manufacturing, retail, and nonfinancial services sectors than in financial services or real estate." (Source: Federal Reserve Beige Book)

This Week in Petroleum (Click to view)

Refinery Output                 12/31/2010  1/7/2011   Chg    4 Week Avg
Percent Operable Utilization 88              86.4         -1.6     87.48

Stocks
Commercial                        335,266     333,112     -2154   337,123
Total Motor Gasoline           218,146     223,227     +5081   218,351
Jet Fuel                               44,088      44,094           6      43,929
Distillate Fuel Oil                 162,107     164,759      +2652 162,135

Days of Supply                  12/31/2010      1/7/2011  Chg   4 Week Avg
Crude Oil                            22.4              22.4         0      23
Gasoline                             23.7              24.6       0.9     24
Jet Fuel                              30.2              30.9       0.7    31
Distillate Fuel                      41.7               43         1.3    42

Demand 
Total                              19,117      19,018    -99   19,740
Gasoline                           8,853        8,819    -34    9,071
Jet Fuel                            1,376        1,487  +111  1,425
Distillate Fuel                    3,735        3,569  - 166    3,836


USDA Supply/Demand (Click to view)

Corn Production 12,447 Yield 152.8 (Carryout 745 vs 779 Est)
Soybeans Production 3,329 Yield 43.5 (Carryout 140 vs 156 Est)
Wheat Production 1,782 (Carryout 858 vs 849 Est)


Grain Stocks: (Click to view)
Corn Stocks Down 8 Percent from December 2009

Soybean Stocks Down 3 Percent
All Wheat Stocks Up 8 Percent

CME Group Grain Report Commentary (Click to view)

Oil Inventory Report Estimates & API Data

PETROLEUM INVENTORIES week ending 01.08.10
______________API______________DOE___
______________Chg __________Est___Act___Fr Yr Ago
Crude ________+1.2__________+1.6__+3.7___+4.4
Gasoline_______+6.8__________+1.0__+3.8__ +10
Distillate_______+3.6__________-1.5___+1.4__+16.0


Demand____Wkly Chg____
Total_______-0.6%______
Mogas______-0.01%_____
Distl_______+1.9%______
Jet Fuel_____-12.7%_____