Futures Market Recap for 05.26.11

Economic Data

Real GDP - Q/Q change - SAAR	Prior 1.8 %	Est 2.1 %	Range 1.9 % to 2.6 %	Actual  1.8 %
GDP price index - Q/Q change - SAAR	1.9 %	1.9 %	1.9 % to 2.0 %	1.9 %

New Claims - Level	Prior 409 K	Rev 414 K	Est  404 K	Range 395 K to 420 K	Act 424 K
4-week Moving Average - Level	439.0 K	440.25 K			438.5 K

After-tax Profits - Y/Y change

Pror 11.4 %

Act 5.8 %

EIA Natural Gas Storage Data

Total (05/20/11): 2,024 Bcf (05/13/11): 1,919 Bcf Change: 105 Bcf 

Year ago stocks: 2,254 Bcf % diff to yr ago: -10.2 % 

5-year avg stocks: 2,050 Bcf % dif to 5-yr avg: -1.3 % 

Summary
Working gas in storage was 2,024 Bcf as of Friday, May 20, 2011, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 105 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 230 Bcf less than last year at this time and 26 Bcf below the 5-year average of 2,050 Bcf. In the East Region, stocks were 110 Bcf below the 5-year average following net injections of 56 Bcf. Stocks in the Producing Region were 133 Bcf above the 5-year average of 769 Bcf after a net injection of 38 Bcf. Stocks in the West Region were 49 Bcf below the 5-year average after a net addition of 11 Bcf. At 2,024 Bcf, total working gas is within the 5-year historical range.

Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index

Prior 16

Actual  1

Market Activity

Grains+1.09%

Oats +2.44%

Wheat +2.26%

Canola +1.47%

Soybean Oil +1.28%

Soybean Meal +0.56%

Soybeans +0.56%

Corn +0.44%

Global Food Production May Be Hurt as Climate Shifts, UN Forecaster Says

Indices+0.92%

Russell 2000 Mini +1.67%

E-Mini Nasdaq 100 +0.06%

DJIA Mini-Sized unch

E-Mini S&P 500 unch

Stocks edge up, shaking off weak economic news

Softs+0.45%

Lumber +4.32%

Cocoa +1.62%

Coffee +0.53%

Sugar #11 +0.22%

Orange Juice -0.78%

Cotton #2 -3.20%

DJ MARKET TALK: Lumber Finishes Limit Up On Firm Cash, Short-Covering

Financials+0.42%

T-Bond +0.72%

10-Year T-Note +0.52%

5-Year T-Note +0.33%

2-Year T-Note +0.09%

Eurodollar +0.01%

 Treasuries Rally on European Debt Turmoil, Slower U.S. Growth, Auction Bid

Currencies+0.42%

Australian Dollar +1.13%

Japanese Yen +0.84%

Swiss Franc +0.76%

British Pound +0.69%

Euro FX +0.43%

Canadian Dollar -0.14%

U.S. Dollar Index -0.50%

Dollar pares loss after Greece comments Beijing expected to buy European bailout debt, report says

Metals-0.10%

Palladium +0.82%

High Grade Copper +0.39%

Gold -0.44%

Platinum -0.45%

Silve

Gold inches lower; silver falls roughly 1% Gold miners increase hedging

Energies-0.14%

Gasoline RBOB +1.20%

Ethanol Futures +0.38%

Heating Oil -0.03%

Crude Oil WTI -1.08%

Natural Gas -1.09%

Europe's natural gas supply: Russia reinforces the market

Price Charts of Note

AUD holds above 50d MA

Lumber Limit-up For 2nd Day

Weekly Lumber

Nat Gas finds Resistance at the 50d MA

Economic Data

ISM Mfg Index

New orders and production slowed in April while hiring remains strong as unfilled orders rise. This backlog may be ties to supply disruptions in Japan

ISM Mfg Index - Level

Prev 61.2

Est 59.5

Range 58.0  to 60.5

Act 60.4

Construction Spending

The construction sector rebounded from February’s weather-related weakness. March’11 construction spending is 6.7% below last year, but that is an improvement from the – 7.0% reading we saw in February

Construction Spending - M/M change

Prev      -1.4 %

Rev    -2.4 %

Est 0.5 %

Range            -.5 % to 1.0 %

Act 1.4 %

Market Activity

Financials+0.14%

ZB +0.26% ZN+0.12% ZF +0.05% ZT +0.03% ED +0.01%

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/treasurys-off-bin-laden-death-boosts-risk-trade-2011-05-02

Softs-0.03%

LB +2.19% KC +1.74% OJ +0.85%  CC -1.09% CT -1.61% SB -2.26%

Currencies-0.13%

USD +0.11% EC-0.01% MP-0.12% SF-0.12% JY-0.16% AD-0.23% BP -0.26% CD-0.49%

Weekly US $ Index

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-03/yen-dollar-advance-on-concern-bin-laden-s-death-will-lead-to-retaliation.html

Energies-0.31%

RB -1.02% NG -0.06% CL-0.59% HO -0.89% ZK -1.17%    

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-02/oil-declines-most-in-three-weeks-on-bin-laden-death-manufacturing-reports.html

Indices-0.37%

YM -0.14% NQ-0.16% ES-0.29% EW -0.57% RJ-1.15%       

http://www.smartmoney.com/investing/stocks/market-update-monday-may-2-2011-27287/?cid=djem_sm_dailyviews_h

Grains -0.65%

RR +1.15% RS +0.89% BO +0.10% S -0.18% SM-0.36% W -1.23% O-2.48%  C-3.08%

http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/current/CropProg/CropProg-05-02-2011.pdf

Metals-1.91%

HG +0.48% PL +0.17% GC -0.37% PA -2.78% SI -8.90%   

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/silver-drops-as-cme-hikes-cost-of-speculation-2011-05-02

Market Report for 04.27.11

 Economic Activity

Durable Goods Orders

New Orders - M/M change	Prev   -0.9 %	Revised 0.7 %	Est 1.9 %	Range 0.5 % to 3.0 %	Act 2.5 %
New Orders - Yr/Yr Change	6.2 %	8.0 %			10.5 %
Ex-transportation - M/M	-0.6 %	0.6 %			1.3 %
Ex-transportation - Yr/Yr	8.5 %	9.9 %			6.1 %

EIA Petroleum Status Report

Crude +6.2m bbls

Gasoline -2.5m bbls

Distillates -1.8m bbls

Oil imports averaged 9.3m bbls /day vs 4wk avg of 8.7m bbl/day

Refinery are running at 82.7% of capacity

Gasoline demand 1.6% below year-ago levels

Distillate demand is up 7.3% from last year

Jet-fuel demand is up 4.4%

Oil Stocks

Refinery Utilization Rate

Gasoline Supplies

Crude Inventories are running on the high side of their average range
While gasoline supplies are low.  Oil refineries are operating at 82.7% of capacity.

Meanwhile, firms like BP and Conoco are reporting quarterly earnings of $5.37 BILLION and $3.0 BILLION respectively.

The “This Week in Petroleum” report shows that domestic oil production is increasing over the last two years after declining for the past couple of decades.

http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/oog/info/twip/twip.asp

FOMC Meeting Announcement

http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20110427a.htm

Federal Funds Rate - Target Level

Prior 0 to 0.25 %

Est 0 to 0.25 %

Act 0 to 0.25 %

Unanimous vote to keep the target rate at this extremely low level for an extended period.

Economic recovery is proceeding at a moderate pace and conditions in the labor market are improving gradually.

The following link shows adjustments made to estimates of growth and inflation.

http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/fomcprojtabl20110427.pdf

Market Activity

Metals+2.02%

SI+6.65% GC+1.72% PA+1.31% PL+1.24% HG-1.38%

COMEX silver stocks are at a 5yr low.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=COMXSIL:IND

25 year Gold Bullion chart

Indices+0.99% CRB -0.30% VIX -1.45%

NQ+1.13% YM+1.05% RK+1.04%  EW+0.90% ES+0.89%

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-27/u-s-stock-futures-rise-before-fed-johnson-johnson-climbs.html

Energies+0.56%

RB+2.50% CL+1.01% HO+0.99% ZK-0.38% NG-0.79%

Gasoline imports from Europe decline:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-26/u-s-gasoline-imports-from-europe-may-drop-to-four-month-low-on-pricing.html

Weekly Gasoline Chart

           

Currencies+0.32%

EC+1.05% BP+0.94% AD+0.87% SF+0.44% MP+0.41% CD+0.26% JY-0.55% USD-0.74%

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-26/dollar-falls-to-16-month-low-against-euro-amid-speculation-of-fed-support.html

25 year USD Chart

Financials-0.20%

FY+0.05% TU+0.02% ED+0.01% TY-0.09% US-0.46%

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_FEDERAL_RESERVE?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2011-04-27-15-20-50

Softs-0.36%

CC+2.40% OJ+2.17%            KC+0.20% SB-1.56% LB-1.56% CT-3.82%

Cotton supplies rose 2.5% from the previous day. The May contract, which is now the spot contract, was down almost 5.5% on the low of the day

Grains-1.70%

RS+0.28% BO-0.33% S-0.34% SM-0.86% RR-1.18% C-1.83% W-4.22% O-5.13%

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-27/grains-soybeans-decline-on-concern-fed-may-ease-stimulus-curbing-demand.html

Wrap for 04.06.11

ECONOMIC DATA

MBA Purchase Applications

Purchase Index - W/W Change	Prev -1.7 %	Current 6.7 %
Refinance Index - W/W Change	-10.1 %	-6.2 %
Composite Index - W/W Change	-7.5 %	-2.0 %

An increase in FHA insurance rates effect 04.01.11 was the driving force behind the increase in purchase activity. Although the 30 year  rate remained steady @ 4.93% refinancing activity declined, as fewer borrowers qualify for credit.

EIA Petroleum Inventory Report

http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/weekly_petroleum_status_report/current/pdf/highlights.pdf

Market Activity

Metals +0.72%

HG +2.47% SI +1.04% PL+0.65% GC+0.61%      PA -0.83%

Read Reuters article about trade reaction to Chinese rate hike.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/04/06/markets-metals-idUSLDE7350GF20110406

Indices+0.35%

YM +0.45% ES +0.41% RJ+0.39% NQ +0.29% EW +0.22% CRB -0.4% VIX – 1.0%

Currencies+0.28%

AD+1.00% EC+0.77% SF +0.73%CD +0.34% BP +0.30% MP +0.18% USD -0.47% JY -0.70%
Read Bloomberg story on FX moves

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-06/yen-declines-on-speculation-boj-to-trail-central-banks-in-ending-stimulus.html

Grains-0.17%

SM+0.57% S+0.24%  O+0.13% BO-0.12% RR-0.21% C-0.49% W -0.51% RS -0.99%

Financials-0.37%

ED +0.01% TU-0.03% FV-0.19% TY -0.37% US -0.76%  

Energies-0.57%

CL+0.30% HO+0.09%RB -0.40% ZK -0.70% NG-2.13%
Read Bloomberg Energy story

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-06/crude-oil-futures-pares-gains-after-u-s-government-releases-supply-report.html

Softs-0.75%

CT +3.48% CC +0.81% KC -1.16% OJ -1.17% SB -3.05% LB -3.42%
Read Bloomberg Cotton story

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-06/cotton-futures-jump-most-in-two-weeks-in-new-york-on-u-s-supply-concerns.html

chart shows yesterday’s test of the 50d MA.