6.16.11 Jobs, CFTC, BOJ & Wheat

Economic Data

BOJ May minutes: Nishimura saw no signs of worsening sentiment

Swiss National Bank : Interest rate 0.25% No Change

 Swiss National Bank Holds Rates at Historic Lows  

	Prior		Consensus		Actual
Italy CPI  Mover M	0.1 %		0.1 %		0.1 %
Year over Year	2.6 %		2.6 %		2.6 %
UK Retail Sales M over M	1.1 %			-1.4 %
Year over Year	2.8 %	2.4 %		0.2 %
EU HICP M over M	0.6 %	0 %		0 %
Year over Year	2.8 %	2.7 %		2.7 %

United States : 

	Prior	Prior Revised		Consensus	Consensus Range		Actual
Home Starts - Level - SAAR	0.523 M	0.541 M		0.547 M	0.530 M to 0.560 M		0.560 M
Permits - Level - SAAR	0.551 M	0.563 M					0.612 M
Jobless New Claims - Level	427 K	430 K		420 K	408 K to 425 K		414 K
4-week Moving Average - Level	424.0 K						424.75 K
Philly Fed Index	Prior 3.9	Est 9.0	Range 0.0  to 19.8			-7.7

US Dept of Labor Weekly Unemployment report

Philly FED Survey

 EIA Natural Gas Report

Storage Data

Total (06/10/11): 2,256 Bcf (06/03/11): 2,187 Bcf 

Change: 69 Bcf 

Year ago stocks: 2,531 Bcf  % diff to yr ago: -10.9 % 

5-year avg stocks: 2,332 Bcf % dif to 5-yr avg: -3.3 % 

Industry News

House Passes Bill to Cut CFTC Funding

Senate Votes to End Tax Break for Ethanol

Market Data

Financials+0.27%

T-Bond+0.60%T-Note +0.24% 5-Year +0.10% 2-Year -0.01%Eurodollar-0.04%

Treasuries Advance on Concern Greece Will Struggle to Contain Debt Turmoil

Currencies-0.05%

Franc+0.48% Yen +0.40% Euro FX +0.17% A$-0.01% USD-0.15%  c$-0.19% British -0.20% Peso -0.24%

 

FOREX-Euro calmer after wild ride; Greece aid eyed

Indices-0.21%

DJIA+0.55%  &P 500 +0.20%Russell +0.17%  Midcap+0.01% Nasdaq 100 -0.40%         

Metals-0.62%

Silver +0.25% Gold +0.25% Copper -0.01% Plat-0.91%      Pall-2.45%             

Softs-0.63%

Sugar +3.35%Lumber+2.17% OJ-1.28% Coffee-1.81%Cocoa-2.44%  Cotton -3.95%

Energies-0.78%

Gasoline +0.94%   H Oil+0.74%  WTI +0.11% Ethanol -1.93% N Gas -3.19%

US FERC approves Appalachian Gateway gas pipeline project       

Grains-2.18%

Canola -0.24% B OIL -1.28% BEANS-1.28% Rice-1.41%  Meal-1.75%Oats  -3.13%Corn-3.34%    Wheat -4.98%

Wheat Breaks Below 52 wk average

Futures Market Recap for 05.26.11

Economic Data

Real GDP - Q/Q change - SAAR	Prior 1.8 %	Est 2.1 %	Range 1.9 % to 2.6 %	Actual  1.8 %
GDP price index - Q/Q change - SAAR	1.9 %	1.9 %	1.9 % to 2.0 %	1.9 %

New Claims - Level	Prior 409 K	Rev 414 K	Est  404 K	Range 395 K to 420 K	Act 424 K
4-week Moving Average - Level	439.0 K	440.25 K			438.5 K

After-tax Profits - Y/Y change

Pror 11.4 %

Act 5.8 %

EIA Natural Gas Storage Data

Total (05/20/11): 2,024 Bcf (05/13/11): 1,919 Bcf Change: 105 Bcf 

Year ago stocks: 2,254 Bcf % diff to yr ago: -10.2 % 

5-year avg stocks: 2,050 Bcf % dif to 5-yr avg: -1.3 % 

Summary
Working gas in storage was 2,024 Bcf as of Friday, May 20, 2011, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 105 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 230 Bcf less than last year at this time and 26 Bcf below the 5-year average of 2,050 Bcf. In the East Region, stocks were 110 Bcf below the 5-year average following net injections of 56 Bcf. Stocks in the Producing Region were 133 Bcf above the 5-year average of 769 Bcf after a net injection of 38 Bcf. Stocks in the West Region were 49 Bcf below the 5-year average after a net addition of 11 Bcf. At 2,024 Bcf, total working gas is within the 5-year historical range.

Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index

Prior 16

Actual  1

Market Activity

Grains+1.09%

Oats +2.44%

Wheat +2.26%

Canola +1.47%

Soybean Oil +1.28%

Soybean Meal +0.56%

Soybeans +0.56%

Corn +0.44%

Global Food Production May Be Hurt as Climate Shifts, UN Forecaster Says

Indices+0.92%

Russell 2000 Mini +1.67%

E-Mini Nasdaq 100 +0.06%

DJIA Mini-Sized unch

E-Mini S&P 500 unch

Stocks edge up, shaking off weak economic news

Softs+0.45%

Lumber +4.32%

Cocoa +1.62%

Coffee +0.53%

Sugar #11 +0.22%

Orange Juice -0.78%

Cotton #2 -3.20%

DJ MARKET TALK: Lumber Finishes Limit Up On Firm Cash, Short-Covering

Financials+0.42%

T-Bond +0.72%

10-Year T-Note +0.52%

5-Year T-Note +0.33%

2-Year T-Note +0.09%

Eurodollar +0.01%

 Treasuries Rally on European Debt Turmoil, Slower U.S. Growth, Auction Bid

Currencies+0.42%

Australian Dollar +1.13%

Japanese Yen +0.84%

Swiss Franc +0.76%

British Pound +0.69%

Euro FX +0.43%

Canadian Dollar -0.14%

U.S. Dollar Index -0.50%

Dollar pares loss after Greece comments Beijing expected to buy European bailout debt, report says

Metals-0.10%

Palladium +0.82%

High Grade Copper +0.39%

Gold -0.44%

Platinum -0.45%

Silve

Gold inches lower; silver falls roughly 1% Gold miners increase hedging

Energies-0.14%

Gasoline RBOB +1.20%

Ethanol Futures +0.38%

Heating Oil -0.03%

Crude Oil WTI -1.08%

Natural Gas -1.09%

Europe's natural gas supply: Russia reinforces the market

Price Charts of Note

AUD holds above 50d MA

Lumber Limit-up For 2nd Day

Weekly Lumber

Nat Gas finds Resistance at the 50d MA

EIA Nat Gas Inventory Report 06.25.09

For Week Ending 6.19.09
Lower 48 Nat Gas Supplies
Act +94 Est +98 Last Week +114 Year ago +85 5Yr Avg +84
Current = 2,651
Last week= 2,557 + 3.70% from last week
5 Yr Max = 2,504 +5.95% from 5 Yr Max
5 Yr Avg = 2,169 + 22.2% from 5 Yr avg
Year Ago = 2,020 + 31.2% from last year
5 Yr Min = 1,858

Summary
Working gas in storage was 2,651 Bcf as of Friday, June 19, 2009, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 94 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 631 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 482 Bcf above the 5-year average of 2,169 Bcf. In the East Region, stocks were 115 Bcf above the 5-year average following net injections of 70 Bcf. Stocks in the Producing Region were 265 Bcf above the 5-year average of 732 Bcf after a net injection of 12 Bcf. Stocks in the West Region were 102 Bcf above the 5-year average after a net addition of 12 Bcf. At 2,651 Bcf, total working gas is above the 5-year historical range.
(Source EIA)

GSH Analysis
The smaller –than-expected build is a slightly positive but the market remains well supplied. The excessive heat may also be providing underlying support. Note that July options expire today and July futures expire at the end of pit trading tomorrow