Drought Maps July 2012

July 2012

CFTC COT Reports for the week eding on 05.7.011

Financial Futures Positions (Futures + Options)
Open Interest changes by Product: FX(w/ $index) fell; Interest Rate products rose; Equity indexes -US rose Foreign fell: Vix rose; commodity indexes fell

Commodity Futures Positions for the week ending on 05.17.11
Open interest declined in 16 of the 20 commodities tracked in this report

Recap of 5.19.11

Economic Data

http://www.dol.gov/opa/media/press/eta/ui/current.htm

	Prior	Prior Revised	Consensus	Consensus Range	Actual
New Claims - Level	434 K	438 K	425 K	410 K to 440 K	409 K
4-week Moving Average - Level	436.75 K	437.75 K			439.0 K

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/43092522#43092522

	Prior	Prior Revised	Consensus	Consensus Range	Actual
Existing Home Sales - Level - SAAR	5.10 M	5.10 M	5.2 M	5.1 M to 5.4 M	5.05 M
Existing Home Sales - M/M Change	3.7 %				-0.8 %
Existing Home Sales - Yr/Yr Change	-6.3 %				-12.9 %

http://hotair.com/archives/2011/05/19/existing-home-sales-slip-0-8/

	Prior	Prior Revised	Consensus	Consensus Range	Actual
Leading Indicators - M/M change	0.4 %	0.7 %	0.0 %	-0.1 % to 0.4 %	-0.3 %

EIA Natural Gas Storage Data  

Total (05/13/11): 1,919 Bcf 

Total (05/06/11): 1,827 Bcf 

Change: 92 Bcf 

Year ago stocks: 2,154 Bcf

% diff to yr ago: -10.9 % 

5-year avg stocks: 1,955 Bcf

% dif to 5-yr avg: -1.8 % 

http://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html

Market Activity

Currencies+0.31%

MP +0.94% EC+0.61% AD+0.54% BP+0.46% CD+0.43%   JY+0.03% SF +0.03% USD-0.50%

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-18/goldman-lowers-dollar-forecasts-versus-euro-on-weak-u-s-growth-prospects.html

Indices+0.19%

YM+0.35% NQ+0.29% EW+0.18% ES+0.15% RJ+0.07%  

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20110519-714610.html

Financials unch

ZF+0.09% ZN+0.06% ZU+0.05% ED+0.01% ZB-0.05%

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/39220a04-8214-11e0-a063-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1Mq3d12Ea

Grains unch

RR +0.84% RS+0.42% BO+0.28% SM+0.11% S unch C-0.20% W-0.61% O-0.82%

http://www.cmegroup.com/education/market-commentary/ag/2011/05/recap-corn_826.html

Softs-0.85%

LB+2.90% OJ+2.47% CC-0.53% KC-2.35% CT-2.63% SB-4.51%

Metals-0.88%

GC-0.16% SI-0.40% PL-0.61% PA-1.33% HG-1.45%

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20110519-714682.html

http://video.ft.com/v/947537846001/Earthquake-and-euro-woes-hit-platinum           

Energies -1.08%

ZK +0.11% HO-0.27% RB -1.20% CL-1.55% NG-2.41%    

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/05/19/us-markets-oil-idUSL3E7G601S20110519

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/big-hurricanes-forecast-for-later-this-year-2011-05-19

Market Recap 05.05.11

Economic Data

Weekly Jobless  Claims	Prior	Prior Revised	Consensus	Consensus Range	Actual
New Claims – Level	429 K	431 K	410 K	400 K to 450 K	474 K
4-week Moving Average – Level	408.5 K	409.0 K			431.25 K

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/05/05/special-factors-partly-blamed-unemployment_n_857981.html

Productivity and Costs	Prior	Prior Revised	Consensus	Consensus Range	Actual
Nonfarm productivity – Q/Q change – SAAR	2.6 %	2.9 %	1.5 %	0.5 % to 3.1 %	1.6 %
Unit labor costs – Q/Q change – SAAR	-0.6 %	-1.0 %	0.8 %	-0.4 % to 1.2 %	1.0 %

Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

http://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html

Total (04/29/11): 1,757 Bcf 

Total (04/22/11): 1,685 Bcf 

Change: 72 Bcf 

Year ago stocks: 1,983 Bcf

% diff to yr ago: -11.4 % 

5-year avg stocks: 1,774 Bcf

% dif to 5-yr avg: -1.0 % 

Market Activity

Financials+0.39%

US +0.78%     TY+0.42% FV+0.23% TU+0.03% ED+0.01%

Australia’s RBA flags more rate hikes

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/australias-rba-flags-more-rate-hikes-2011-05-05

Indices-0.43%

EW-0.07% ES-0.07% YM-0.08% NQ-0.13% RJ-0.14%

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/stocks-to-watch-friday-aig-washington-post-2011-05-05

Currencies-0.74%

USD+1.53% JY+0.55% BP-0.78% MP-0.96% CD-1.08% SF-1.19% AD-1.61% EC-2.09%

http://www.cmegroup.com/education/market-commentary/fx/2011/05/asia-fx_010.html

Softs-2.09%

LB+0.44% OJ-0.61% KC-2.12% SB-2.30% CT-3.07% CC-4.86%

Grains-2.81%           

SM-1.42% S-2.24% W-2.33% BO-2.52%   RS-2.65% C-2.84% O-3.47% RR-5.04%

http://www.cmegroup.com/education/market-commentary/ag/2011/05/recap-corn_088.html

Metals-5.72%

GC-2.65% PL-3.13% HG-3.60%  PA-4.83% SI -11.84%

http://in.reuters.com/article/2011/05/05/markets-precious-idINLDE7440RL20110505

http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdates/archives/2011/05/05/Gold-and-Silver-Why-Are-Prices-Falling.aspx

Energies-6.88% 

CME expands oil-price limits on sharp selloff

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/cme-expands-oil-price-limits-on-sharp-selloff-2011-05-05

ZK-2.27% RB-6.76% NG-6.95% HO-8.15% CL -8.94%

http://green.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/05/05/dissecting-this-weeks-oil-price-tumble/?partner=rss&emc=rss

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20110505-703553.html

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/05/05/oil-prices-plunge-in-reco_n_858275.html

http://in.reuters.com/article/2011/05/06/idINIndia-56812320110506

Market Wrap for 04.19.11

Economic Data

ICSC-Goldman Store Sales

Store Sales - W/W change	Prev 0.1 %	Act 0.3 %
Store Sales - Y/Y	2.9 %	3.0 %

Housing Starts

Starts - Level - SAAR	Prev 0.479 M	Revised 0.512 M	Est 0.525 M	Range 0.500 M to 0.620 M	Act 0.549 M
Permits - Level - SAAR	0.517 M	0.534 M			0.594 M

March starts rebounded 7.2% following an 18.5% in February. Starts were above expectations but are still at historically depressed levels. For the month, single-family home starts were up 7.7%, while multi-family starts were up 5.8%.

Starts in the Midwest were up 32.3%, the west up 27.6% and the Northeast up 5.4%. Starts in the South fell 3.3%. Permits gained 11.2% for the month but are13.3% below last year.

Housing report from “Market Watch.com” http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-home-construction-quickens-in-march-2011-04-19

Redbook

Store Sales Y/Y change

4.7 %

5.1 %

Market Activity

Metals+0.58%

SI+2.51% HG+0.96% GC+0.23% PL-0.53% PA-0.55%

http://www.cmegroup.com/education/market-commentary/metals/2011/04/recap-silver_463.html

Energies+0.38%

NG+3.26% CL+0.48%            ZK-0.34% RB-0.59% HO -0.99%

Indices+0.29%  CRB +0.60% VIX -4.95%

NQ +0.59% ES +0.50%           YM +0.45% EW+0.09% RJ-0.18%

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110419/ap_on_bi_ge/us_earns_goldman_sachs;_ylt=ApwxXfvREx7.Yq995HIaA_T957EF;_ylu=X3oDMTJzM3IxcGJoBGFzc2V0A2FwLzIwMTEwNDE5L3VzX2Vhcm5zX2dvbGRtYW5fc2FjaHMEcG9zAzgEc2VjA3luX3BhZ2luYXRlX3N1bW1hcnlfbGlzdARzbGsDZ29sZG1hbnJlcG9y

Grains+0.26%

O +1.68% W +1.39% RR+0.29% BO +0.24% S-0.17% C-0.37%       SM-0.40% RS-0.61%

http://www.cmegroup.com/education/market-commentary/ag/2011/04/recap-wheat_465.html

Currencies+0.23%

CD+0.83% EC+0.70% MP+0.50% BP+0.39% JY+0.13% AD+0.03% SF-0.37% USD-0.61%

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-19/canadian-inflation-accelerates-to-highest-rate-in-two-years-on-jump-in-oil.html

Financials+0.09%

US +0.23% TU+0.01%            TY unch ED -0.01% FY -0.03%

Softs-0.14%

KC+2.37% OJ+0.86% LB-0.20% CC-0.32% SB-0.53% CT-3.37%

Economic Data

Wholesale Trade

	Prior	Actual
Inventories - M/M change	1.1 %	1.0 %

Market Activity

Grains +2.21%

O+5.35% W+3.14%BO+2.49%S+2.11%SM+1.80%C+1.19%RS+1.17% RR+0.44%

USDA WASDE Report http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/current/wasde/wasde-04-08-2011.pdf

Bloomberg Grain Report http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-08/corn-rises-on-signs-higher-cost-failing-to-slow-demand-wheat-prices-gain.html

Oats reversed yesterdays limit-down action by closing up the daily price limit

Energies +1.79%

HO+3.55% RB+2.33%CL+2.26% Ethanol +1.19% NG-0.39%

Platts OilBlog http://www.platts.com/BlogDetails/oilblog

Metals +1.72%

SI+2.67% HG+1.92% PA+1.79% PL+1.20% GC+1.01%

Currencies +0.27%

EC+0.95% SF +0.69% AD+0.68% MP+0.36%BP+0.21% CD+0.12%         USD -0.98%

Financials -0.07%

ED +0.01% TU-0.03% FV -0.08% TY -0.08% US -0.11%

Indices -0.55% VIX +1.47% CRB +0.95%

YM-0.20% ES-0.36%          NQ-0.48% EW-0.68% RJ-1.04%

NYSE volume 585M shares, about 18% below its three-month average; decliners lead advancers by 2.5:1.
NASDAQ volume 1.33B shares, about 15% below its three-month average; decliners lead advancers by 2.6:1.
- VIX index +6% at just over 18.00

Softs -1.65%

OJ +0.94% KC+0.79% CC-0.44% CT-2.52% SB-3.17% LB-5.48%

Cotton sold-off on a “buy the rumor-sell the fact” reaction to the USDA report that showed lower ending stocks thatn the previous report

1Q Earnings Week 1

27 Reports  22 above last year 5 below last year Spreadsheet of Earnings Results

16 Above Expectations

4 Matching

7 Below

CFTC Reports

CFTC Commodity COT (Combined)

Recap 04.04.11

Price Movements

Grains +1.24%           

W +4.02% C +3.29% O +2.87% RR +0.76% BO +0.34% S -0.70% SM -1.08%

CME Group Wheat Research  

Record breaking heat is creating some of worst growing conditions in recent memory.

Metals +0.81%

SI +2.02% PA +1.26% PL +0.54% GC +0.34% HG -0.23%

Reuters Reports that silver at a 31 year high

Energies +0.47%

HO +1.26% RB +0.55% CL +0.51% NG -1.70%

News Story from PLATTS

Softs +0.32% 

SB +2.04% OJ +1.41% CC +0.30%   CT unch LB -0.34%    KC-1.48%

Financials +0.20%

FV +0.26% TY+0.24% TU +0.06%   US +0.05% ED +0.03%

Bloomberg Story on Lockhart Comments

Indices -0.08%

CRB +.73% DOW +0.04% ES -0.13% NQ -0.64% VIX -.78%

03.14.11 Market Review

Economic Reports

The Monday’s economic calendar was very light.

The BOJ left rates at 0-0.1%. The BOJ also announced that it would increase its fund for buying financial assets.

EU Industrial Production: Month over Month	Prior -0.1 %	Revised0.3 %	Est 0.5 %	Actual 0.3 %
Year over Year	8.0 %	8.8 %		6.6 %

Price Moves

Energies +0.36%

H Oil +1.14% Ethanol +0.53% Nat Gas +0.51% WTI +0.49% Gasoline -0.93%

Grains +0.25%

Meal +1.57% Beans +0.41%  Wheat+0.28% Corn+0.26% B-Oil -0.93% Oats -1.85%

Currencies +0.18%

EC +0.77%  BP +0.69% SFranc +0.56% Yen +0.29%   C$ -0.10% A$ -0.42% $ Index -0.58%

Financials +0.18%

10-Year +0.29%       5-Year +0.25%  Bond +0.18% 2-Year +0.06%  Eurodollar +0.01%

Indices -0.57%

Mini Nasdaq +0.04% Mini DOW+0.03% Mini S&P+0.02% E-Mini Midcap -0.43%

Metals -0.70%

Copper +0.30% Gold +0.22% Silver -0.17%    Plat -1.41% Pall-2.42%

Softs -1.52%

OJ +0.60% KC-0.40% CC -0.67% LB-1.51% CT #2-3.42% SB #11 -3.71%

The markets were primarily focused on the situations in Japan and the Middle East.