Market Recap for 05.23.11

Economic Data

Market Activity

Financials+0.16%        

ZB+0.25% ZN+0.17% ZF+0.05% ED-0.01% ZT-0.04%

Grains-0.38%

RS +0.45% RR-0.13% BO-0.42% W-0.43% S-0.47% SM-0.50% C-0.72% O-0.82%

Energies-0.66%

NG+2.32% RB-0.18% ZK-0.67% HO-2.49% CL-2.61%      

Story From Financial Times

Platts Oilblog RE Chinese Demand

Currencies-0.72%

USD+0.93% CD-0.52% JY-0.55% SF-0.74% BP-0.96%        EC-1.06% MP-1.11% AD-1.71%

Forex Report from WSJ

Metals-0.88%

GC+0.56% SI+0.04% PA-0.39% PL-0.85% HG-3.48%        

Gold News from The Financial Times

Indices-1.23% CRB -1.09% VIX +2.77%

YM-0.83% ES-0.94% NQ-1.19% EW-1.32% RJ-1.66%

AP News Story On US Equities

Softs-1.45%

KC +1.31% OJ-0.50% CC-0.83% CT-1.11% LB-3.83% SB-4.02%

Sugar News from China

03.23.11 Market wrap

Economic Data

MBA Purchase Applications

Purchase Index - W/W Change	Prev    -4.0 %	Act 2.7 %
Refinance Index - W/W Change	0.9 %	2.7 %
Composite Index - W/W Change	-0.7 %	2.7 %

The purchase index is below the year-end level but shows signs of stabilizing.  The average 30 yr mortgage rate is 4.8%.

New Home Sales

New Home Sales - Level - SAAR

Prev 284 K

Rev 329 K

Est 290 K

Range 240 K to 305 K

Act 250 K

Home sales fell 16.9% last month. The median price dropped 13.9% to $202,100

There is a 8.9 month supply of new homes on the market

EIA Petroleum Supply Report

EIA Summary

EIA Data

Market Activity

Metals+1.93%

SI +3.01% HG +2.85% PA +1.76% PL  +1.16% GC +0.89%

Traders note that silver is influenced by the same factors that are driving  gold to record highs but that it is a lot less expensive

Indices+0.55%

DOW +0.64% NQ +0.61% Russell 2K +0.50% ES +0.45% Midcap -0.01% VIX -4.19%

Energies+0.44%

NG +2.00% CL +0.59% RB +0.39% Ethanol -0.20% HO -0.67%

The combination of colder weather, warnings of supply disruptions in the Mid-East and increased Japanese demand drove natural gas higher

Financials -0.03%

ED -0.01% TU-0.02% FV-0.04% TY -0.09% US-0.15%

Currencies -0.13%

USD +0.47% AD+0.35% JY+0.06% MP unch CD -0.08% EC-0.54% SF- .57% BP -0.80%

Grains -0.69%

RR +1.37% BO -0.68% O -0.73%  C -0.84% S -1.04% W -1.11% SM-1.75%

Softs -0.99%

OJ +0.82% CC -0.37% LB -0.48% KC -1.77% CT -1.99%   SB -2.14%

Mexican sugar output is up 24% from the same period last year. 

News report on Mexican Production

3.15.11 Market Recap

Economic Data

ICSC-Goldman Sales Store Sales -
W/W change Prior 2.3 % Actual 0.1 %
Store Sales - Y/Y 2.6 % 3.1 %



Empire State Mfg Survey

General Business Conditions Index - Level Prior 15.43 Rev 16.0 Range 14.0 to 20.0 Act 17.5





Import and Export Prices

Export Prices - M/M change Prev 1.2 % Rev 1.3 % Act 1.2 %
Export Prices - Y/Y change Prev 6.8 % Act 8.6 %
Import Prices - M/M change Prev 1.5 % Rev 1.3 % Act 1.4 %
Import Prices - Y/Y change Prev 5.3 % Act 6.9 %

The data suggests that inflationary pressures were building but the events in Japan may have changed the trend



Redbook
Store Sales Y/Y change Prev 2.0 % Act 2.0 %





Treasury International Capital

Foreign Demand for Long-Term U.S. Securities Prev $65.9 B Rev $62.5 B Act $51.5 B
Foreign demand remains strong but it was below the prior two readings



Housing Market Index
Housing Market Index Prev 16 Act 17
The best reading since the tax-credit stimulus plan ended last spring



FOMC Meeting Announcement
View FOMC Statement Here
Federal Funds Rate - Target Level Prev 0 to 0.25 % Est 0 to 0.25 % Act 0 to 0.25 %

As expected, the FED held rates steady and kept the “ for an extended period” comment.

The report notes that the economy is on “firmer footing” and the labor market is “improving gradually.”

Price Activity

Financials +0.25%
T-Bond +0.72% 10-Yr +0.25% 5 Yr +0.04% 2-Year  -0.01% E$ -0.01%
Traders noted two countervailing themes: Bonds rallying to combat a potential economic slowdown, Sell side pressure as the Japanese repatriate their currency.



Currencies -0.23%
JY+1.13% SF+0.82% EC+0.06% $Ind +0.01% BP -0.56% MP -0.75% C$-0.94% A$ -1.62%
Yen strengthened as Japanese institutions brought cash positions back to Japan



Indices -1.27%

VIX +4.95% NQ +0.03% ES unch Mini Dow -0.06% Russell Mini -1.24%
Equity indices have moved below their 50d MA

Metals -2.83%
HG +0.20% GC -1.99% PL -2.81% SI -4.21% PA -5.57%

PA, PL & SI traded lower on fears that industrial deamand for those metals will suffer the most. GC & SI remain above their 50d MA, although the days low in gold was right at that MA

Energies -3.07%
NG +1.02% HO -3.72% WTI -3.78% Ethanol -4.75% Gasoline -5.21%
Concerns that the damage to Japanese ports will be hamper the importing of the full range of commodities.*

Softs -3.31%
LB +0.29% OJ -1.15% CT -3.54% KC -3.79% CC -3.95% SB #11 -7.70%
*See comment above



Grains -5.09%
RR -3.74% SM -4.14% C -4.50% BO -4.51% S -5.22% C -5.41% O -5.81% W -7.35%
*See comment above

03.14.11 Market Review

Economic Reports

The Monday’s economic calendar was very light.

The BOJ left rates at 0-0.1%. The BOJ also announced that it would increase its fund for buying financial assets.

EU Industrial Production: Month over Month	Prior -0.1 %	Revised0.3 %	Est 0.5 %	Actual 0.3 %
Year over Year	8.0 %	8.8 %		6.6 %

Price Moves

Energies +0.36%

H Oil +1.14% Ethanol +0.53% Nat Gas +0.51% WTI +0.49% Gasoline -0.93%

Grains +0.25%

Meal +1.57% Beans +0.41%  Wheat+0.28% Corn+0.26% B-Oil -0.93% Oats -1.85%

Currencies +0.18%

EC +0.77%  BP +0.69% SFranc +0.56% Yen +0.29%   C$ -0.10% A$ -0.42% $ Index -0.58%

Financials +0.18%

10-Year +0.29%       5-Year +0.25%  Bond +0.18% 2-Year +0.06%  Eurodollar +0.01%

Indices -0.57%

Mini Nasdaq +0.04% Mini DOW+0.03% Mini S&P+0.02% E-Mini Midcap -0.43%

Metals -0.70%

Copper +0.30% Gold +0.22% Silver -0.17%    Plat -1.41% Pall-2.42%

Softs -1.52%

OJ +0.60% KC-0.40% CC -0.67% LB-1.51% CT #2-3.42% SB #11 -3.71%

The markets were primarily focused on the situations in Japan and the Middle East.

03.02.11 Review

Economic Reports

#1) MBA Purchase Applications

_________________________Prev________Act

Purchase Index - W/W Change	__5.1 %__	__-6.1 %__
Refinance Index - W/W Change	__17.8 %__	__-6.5 %
Composite Index - W/W Change	__13.2 %__	__-6.5 %__

The housing market remains depressed. These declines in mortgage financing occurred in a week where mortgage rates fell 16 basis points. The average 30 yr fixed rate is 4.84%

#2) Challenger Job-Cut Report 

Announced Layoffs - Level

Prev 38,519

Act. 50,702

The bulk of the layoffs were from the government/non profit sector.

Announced Layoffs - Level

Prev 38,519 

Act. 50,702 

#3) ADP Employment Report

ADP employment

Prior =187,000

Revised=189,000

Latest=217,000

ADP employment

Prior =187,000 

Revised=189,000 

Latest=217,000 

#4) EIA Petroleum Inventory Report View Report Here

Crude: -364k 1^st decline in 7 weeks

Gasoline: -3.59m. Largest drop since Oct. 10 Demand was up 0.7% despite higher prices at the punp.

#5) FED Beige Book View Beige Book Here

“overall economic activity continues to expand at a moderate pace.” Manufacturing continues to lead the recovery. Retail sales was the next strongest sector. Loan demand was mixed. The labor picture is slowly improving.

Market Activity

Soft commodity sector was the best performing group (+1.32%) The front month contracts in cotton & sugar were the largest percentage gainers. CTH11 +4.4% SBH11 +3.14%

Energies rose 0.75%, on continued uncertainty about the situations in the MidEast and a bullish inventory report. Front month WTI crude gained 2.75%

Equity indexes posted a 0.92% gain. The improving jobs picture outweighed higher oil prices. The VIH11 (VIX) contract remains below its 50d moving average

The metals complex was up 0.2%, with GCJ11 posting a new record high.

Interest rate contracts posted the largest declines, with the financial sector falling 0.32% today.