Economic Data

#1) Employment Situation View Report Here

The unemployment rate has fallen in the last 3 reports

The “real” unemployment rate (U6) has been steady or lower for the last 5 months

___________________Prev____Revised____Est________Range___________Act___

Nonfarm Payrolls - M/M change	36,000	63,000	200,000	120,000  to 275,000	192,000
Unemployment Rate - Level	9.0 %		9.1 %	8.9 % to 9.3 %	8.9 %
Average Hourly Earnings - M/M change	0.4 %		0.2 %	0.0 % to 0.2 %	0.0 %
Av Workweek - All Employees	34.2 hrs		34.3 hrs	34.3 hrs to 34.4 hrs	34.2 hrs
Private Payrolls - M/M change	50,000	68,000	190,000	130,000  to 295,000	222,000

#2) Factory Orders

Factory Orders - M/M change

Prev 0.2 %

Rev 1.4 %

E 2.0 %

Range  1.0 % to 3.2 %

Act 3.1 %

Factory Orders - M/M change

Prev 0.2 %

Rev 1.4 %

E 2.0 %

Range  1.0 % to 3.2 %

Act 3.1 %

 

Market Moves

Crude WTI +2.94% Heating Oil +1.31% Gasoline +0.75% Natural Gas +0.66% Ethanol Futures unch

The ongoing Libyan situation and fears that it might spread to other oil producing nations

Silver +3.82% Gold +1.19% Platinum +0.64% Copper +0.04% Palladium -0.36%

Gold posted a record high early in the week and silver is at the highest level since 1980, when it reached a record of over $50/ oz

T-Bond 0.70% 10-Year +0.64% 5-Year +0.53% 2-Year +0.18% Eurodollar unch

Interest rates sold off after the payroll number but rallied after higher energy prices pressed indices lower

SF +0.62% Euro +0.21% Yen +0.03% Can$-0.05% Pound -0.07% U.S.$-0.10% AD $ -0.20%

The Swiss Franc continues to be the best performing currency : 1 mnth=+3.1% 3 mnth +5.46% 1 yr +15.93%

Wheat +1.06% Rice +0.64% Beans +0.14% Oats -1.02% Corn -1.19%

Cotton +3.4% LB +2.05% Cof -0.7% OJ -0.9% Cocoa -2.04% Sug  -2.3%

VIX +2.17% Rus 2K -0.35% NASDAQ -0.5% MidCap -0.64% DJIA -0.69% S&P -0.71%

 

03.03.11 Review

Economic Reports

#1) Monster Employment Index

Monster Employment Index

Prev 122

Act 129

#2)Weekly Jobs Report (Click Here)

New Claims - Level	Prev 391 K	Revised 388 K	Cons 395 K	Range 388 K to 405 K	Act 368 K
4-week Moving Average - Level	Prev 402.0 K	Revised 401.25 K			Act 388.50 K

New Claims - Level

Prev 391 K

Revised 388 K

Cons 395 K

Range 388 K to 405 K

Act 368 K

4-week Moving Average - Level

Prev 402.0 K

Revised 401.25 K

Act 388.50 K

#3) Productivity and Costs

Nonfarm productivity - Q/Q change - SAAR	Prev 2.6 %	Est 2.6 %	Range 2.0 % to 3.0 %	Act 2.6 %
Unit labor costs - Q/Q change - SAAR	-0.6 %	-0.3 %	-1.0 % to -0.2 %	-0.6 %

Nonfarm productivity - Q/Q change - SAAR

Prev 2.6 %

Est 2.6 %

Range 2.0 % to 3.0 %

Act 2.6 %

Unit labor costs - Q/Q change - SAAR

-0.6 %

-0.3 %

-1.0 % to -0.2 %

-0.6 %

#4) ISM Non-Mfg Index

Composite Index - Level

Prev 59.4

Est 59.0

Range 57.8  to 65.1

Act 59.7

Composite Index - Level

Prev 59.4 

Est 59.0 

Range 57.8  to 65.1 

Act 59.7 

#5)Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (Click Here)

Weekly Change

-81 bcf

-85 bcf

Weekly Change

-81 bcf

-85 bcf

Summary from the EIA report- Summary
Working gas in storage was 1,745 Bcf as of Friday, February 25, 2011, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net decline of 85 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 9 Bcf less than last year at this time and 15 Bcf below the 5-year average of 1,760 Bcf. In the East Region, stocks were 80 Bcf below the 5-year average following net withdrawals of 71 Bcf. Stocks in the Producing Region were 83 Bcf above the 5-year average of 613 Bcf after a net injection of 9 Bcf. Stocks in the West Region were 18 Bcf below the 5-year average after a net drawdown of 23 Bcf. At 1,745 Bcf, total working gas is within the 5-year historical range.

Market Review

Indices +2.07% Softs +1.63% Grains +1.26% Meats +0.96%

FX -0.07% Energies -0.10% Financials -0.62% Metals-1.24%

News that Libyan rebels had regained control of oil facilities and Venezuela had offered to mediate the Libyan conflict sent energies, financial contracts and precious metals lower.

Equities benefitted from lower energy prices and better than expected employment reports. However, it should be noted that in the 2 prior months, the government reported fewer new jobs than what the private forecasts had predicted.

Grains rallied on talk that the Chinese plan to lower import tariffs on certain products, strong export numbers in beans and news that too much rain was slowing the Brazilian soybean harvest

Indications that the ECB may begin to raise rates sooner than expected weighed on gold and interest-rate futures.

03.02.11 Review

Economic Reports

#1) MBA Purchase Applications

_________________________Prev________Act

Purchase Index - W/W Change	__5.1 %__	__-6.1 %__
Refinance Index - W/W Change	__17.8 %__	__-6.5 %
Composite Index - W/W Change	__13.2 %__	__-6.5 %__

The housing market remains depressed. These declines in mortgage financing occurred in a week where mortgage rates fell 16 basis points. The average 30 yr fixed rate is 4.84%

#2) Challenger Job-Cut Report 

Announced Layoffs - Level

Prev 38,519

Act. 50,702

The bulk of the layoffs were from the government/non profit sector.

Announced Layoffs - Level

Prev 38,519 

Act. 50,702 

#3) ADP Employment Report

ADP employment

Prior =187,000

Revised=189,000

Latest=217,000

ADP employment

Prior =187,000 

Revised=189,000 

Latest=217,000 

#4) EIA Petroleum Inventory Report View Report Here

Crude: -364k 1^st decline in 7 weeks

Gasoline: -3.59m. Largest drop since Oct. 10 Demand was up 0.7% despite higher prices at the punp.

#5) FED Beige Book View Beige Book Here

“overall economic activity continues to expand at a moderate pace.” Manufacturing continues to lead the recovery. Retail sales was the next strongest sector. Loan demand was mixed. The labor picture is slowly improving.

Market Activity

Soft commodity sector was the best performing group (+1.32%) The front month contracts in cotton & sugar were the largest percentage gainers. CTH11 +4.4% SBH11 +3.14%

Energies rose 0.75%, on continued uncertainty about the situations in the MidEast and a bullish inventory report. Front month WTI crude gained 2.75%

Equity indexes posted a 0.92% gain. The improving jobs picture outweighed higher oil prices. The VIH11 (VIX) contract remains below its 50d moving average

The metals complex was up 0.2%, with GCJ11 posting a new record high.

Interest rate contracts posted the largest declines, with the financial sector falling 0.32% today.

 

03.01.11 Review

Economic Data

#1) Weekly Retail Sales

ICSC-Goldman Store Sales

____________________________Prior___________Actual

Store Sales - W/W change	2.6 %	-0.5 %
Store Sales - Y/Y	3.0 %	3.3 %

Redbook

Store Sales Y/Y change

2.7 %

3.0 %

#2) ISM Mfg Index

_____________Prior__Est___Range___Actual

ISM Mfg Index - Level

60.8

60.5

58.7  to 62.0

61.4

ISM Mfg Index - Level

60.8 

60.5 

58.7  to 62.0 

61.4 

#3) Construction Spending

__________________Prior___Rev_____Est____Range______Actual

Construction Spending - M/M change	-2.5 %	-1.6 %	-0.8 %	-1.0 % to -0.3 %	-0.7 %
Construction Spending - Y/Y change	-6.4 %	-5.3 %			-5.9 %

Construction Spending - M/M change

-2.5 %

-1.6 %

-0.8 %

-1.0 % to -0.3 %

-0.7 %

Construction Spending - Y/Y change

-6.4 %

-5.3 %

-5.9 %

Market Activity

Energies and metals were sharply higher as US military forces repositioned themselves closer to Libya. GCJ11 rose 1.7% to a record high. Silver was up 2.5%, with platinum & palladium up over 1.8%. 

GCJ11

In the energy complex: RBJ11 was up 3.7%, HOJ11 up 3.5% and CLJ11 up 3.25%. Brent crude was up almost 4.0%

As the PLATTS Oil Blog notes, although gasoline prices are almost 20% above year-ago levels demand is up 2.6% from last year.

These higher energy prices are weighing on equities, with the S&P falling 1.75% and the NASDAQ and Dow off about 1.5%. The March VIX contract rose 9.3% and flirting with its 50 day moving average

VIXH11

.

Overnight News for Trade Date 03.01.11

Australia : Retail Sales  
__________Prior___Consensus___ Actual 
 M / M ____0.2 % _____0.7 % ____0.4 % 
 Y / Y_____ 2.1 % _____________1.8 %


Australia : RBA Announcement
  _______Prior___ Consensus___ Actual 
 Change__ 0 bp ____0 bp _______0 bp 
 Level___ 4.75 %__ 4.75 % ____4.75 %


Japan : Household Spending
 _____ Prior___ Consensus ___Actual 
 Y/Y__ -3.3 % ____-0.5 % ___-1.0 %


Japan : Unemployment Rate
  _____Prior___ Consensus Actual 
 Level__ 4.9 %___ 5.0 %___ 4.9 %


China : PMI Manufacturing Index
____  Prior ___Consensus__ Actual 
 level __54.5 ___ 51.5 ______ 51.7 

The metals and the softs were the biggest movers today. The metals segment was up 1.1%, with most of that movement coming from silver, which rose 2.7%. COMEX silver inventories remain tight Click to see COMEX Silver Stocks and today was 1st notice day lfor the March contract'

The softs complex was up over 2.0% with March cotton ending the day over 7.0% higher and March sugar was up over 3.0% on its last day of trading. As we noted earlier, Chinese benchmark Cotton rose 7.0% (the daily limit) after China's National Bureau of Statistics reported that cotton out fell over 6.25% in 2010.

Press to view end of day cotton prices

As you can see from the 25 year chart, NY cotton has risen sharply  over the last 6 months.

This NOAA link outlines some of the fundamental reasons for the recent strength in the Ag sector.
There were adverse growing conditions in Russia, Brazil, Pakistan, China and Australia that propelled cotton prices to record levels,
NOAA Top 10 Climate Events for 20010

 Economic Data

#1) Personal Income & Spending

________________________	Prior	Prior Revised	Consensus	Consensus Range	Actual
Personal Income - M/M chg	0.4 %		0.4 %	0.2 % to 1.2 %	1.0 %
Personal Income - Yr/Yr chg	3.8 %				4.6 %

________________________

Prior

Prior Revised

Consensus

Consensus Range

Actual

Personal Income - M/M chg

0.4 %

0.4 %

0.2 % to 1.2 %

1.0 %

Personal Income - Yr/Yr chg

3.8 %

4.6 %

________________________	Prior	Prior Revised	Consensus	Consensus Range	Actual
Consumer Spending- M/M chg	0.7 %	0.5 %	0.4 %	0.3 % to 0.5 %	0.2 %
Consumer Spending - Yr/Yr chg	4.1 %	3.9 %			4.0 %

________________________

Prior

Prior Revised

Consensus

Consensus Range

Actual

Consumer Spending- M/M chg

0.7 %

0.5 %

0.4 %

0.3 % to 0.5 %

0.2 %

Consumer Spending - Yr/Yr chg

4.1 %

3.9 %

4.0 %

#2) Chicago PMI

________________________	Prior	Consensus	Consensus Range	Actual
Business Barometer Index - Level	68.8	68.0	66.8  to 70.3	71.2

________________________

Prior

Consensus

Consensus Range

Actual

Business Barometer Index - Level

68.8 

68.0 

66.8  to 70.3 

71.2 

#3) Pending Home Sales

___________________________	Prior	Prior Revised	Actual
Pending Home Sales Index - Level	93.7		88.9
Pending Home Sales Index - M/M	2.0 %	91.5 %	-2.8 %