Bullet Points

1) International Trade  (Click to View BEA Release)

Trade Balance: Prior=$-38.3b Est=$-40.5 Act=$-40.6b

Higher energy prices lead to a widening of the trade deficit. Exports posted solid gains and if you exclude oil the gap actually shrank.

2)University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index

Prior=74.2 Est=75.0 Act=75.1

COT for Commodity Products

Bullet Points:
Weekly Jobs Report (Click to view)

New Claims: Prior=419K Est=412k Act=383  Lowest level since 07.08

4-wk average: Prior=431.5k Act=415.5

The snowstorm that swept through the Midwest and Northeast in the week may have impacted unemployment filings.

#2) EIA Natural Gas Storage Report 
Weekly Change in Inventories; Prior= -189bcf Est= -190bcf Act= -209bcf

Natural gas supplies are down 4.4% from year=ago levels and 2.1% below the 5 year average

3) Treasury Budget;

Level; Prior= -$80.oB Est=-$60.0B Act= -$49.8B

Receipts are up 9.4% so far this year, while spending is up 4.8%

4) Feb '11 OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report
The report includes a very good discussion about the WTI/Brent spread and details the fundamental and financial factors that are driving this spread.

Bullet Points
#1) MBA Home Purchase Applications  for week 02.04.11

Purchase Index W/W Chg: Prior= 9.5% Act=-1.4%

Refinance Index W/W Chg; Prior=11.7% Act=-7.7%

Composite Index W/W Chg: 11.3% Act=-5.5%

Stronger-than-expected economic data has caused the average rate on 30-year mortgages  to climb 22 basis points, to 5.13%

#2)USDA Grain Report (Click to view)

The grain reports revised downward the USDA's estimates for year-end supplies. The biggest surprise was the 70 million bushel reduction of ending stocks estimate for corn. 

#3) Highlights from the EIA Weekly Supply Report 

Crude inventores: +1.9m vs est. +2.0m

Gasoline inventories: +4.66m vs est. +6.26m

Gasoline and heating oil were supported by the strength in Brent crude.  Brent’s premium to WTI rose to a record on Wednesday.

Gasoline is trading at a 28 month high despite the fact that inventories are extremely high and demand is at a 10-month low




#4) Bernanke Before Congress (Click to view)

In testimony before Congress Federal Reserve Bernanke stated that “unsustainable” budget deficits must be addressed, but he said that sharp cuts in spending would threaten the economic recovery.

Bullet Points:
#1) China raises interest Rates effective Wednesday.
One-year yuan lending rate: 6.06% up from 5.81%
One-year deposit rate: 3.00% up from 2.75%.
This is the 3rd time since October that the People's Bank of China has raised rates in an attempt to cool economic growth and analysts expect further tightening.


#2) NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (Click to View Report)

Jan '11 = 92.6    Feb '11 = 94.1  

#3) Retail Sales Data
Goldman Same Store Sales W/W chg: Prior=-1.0% Curr:2.2%
Goldman Same Store Sales Y/Y chg: Prior=1.6% Curr:2.5%
Johnson Redbook Same Store Sales Y/Y Prior= 1.8% Curr= 2.7%
Both the Goldman and Redbook numbers indicate strong consumer demand


#4)EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook  (click to view)
From the Report "

• EIA expects the price of WTI crude oil to average about $93 per barrel in 2011, $14 higher than the average price last year.  For 2012, EIA projects that WTI prices will continue to rise, averaging $98 per barrel. EIA’s forecast assumes U.S. real gross domestic product (GDP) grows 3.0 percent in 2011 and 2.8 percent in 2012, while world real GDP (weighted by oil consumption) grows by 3.9 percent and 4.0 percent, respectively, in 2011 and 2012.
• EIA expects regular-grade motor gasoline retail prices to average $3.15 per gallon in 2011, 37 cents per gallon higher than the 2010 average, and $3.30 per gallon in 2012, with prices forecast to average about 5 cents per gallon higher in each year during the peak driving season (April through September).  

CFTC January '11 This Month in Futures Markets (Click to View)

The CFTC’s January ’11 addition of “This Month in Futures Markets” shows that 16 of the 22 contracts followed followed by the CFTC had increases in open interest.  

 

The largest OI gain was in the  Euro-FX contract which expanded by 18% as the ECH11 rose 3.5% for the month

 

Gold saw the largest decrease in open interest with an 8.4% drop in outstanding positions, as gold prices fell 6.2% in the month.