Challenger Reports

1) Challenger Job-cut report

Announced Layoffs: Actual 42,474   Prior 42,759

November11 marks the 2nd straight month of lower job loses and is 13% below November10. With this report,  total job cuts in 2011 now totals  564,297, which is 13% above last year’s year-to-date total of 497,969.  (The 564,297 cuts y-t-d are above the 2010 year-end total of 529.973.

For the 8^th time this year Government layoffs were at the top of the list. So far this year 180,881 government jobs have been eliminated, which is 30% above the 138,979 announced through November 2010

The Food sector was in the 2^nd spot, losing 2,368 jobs. Retailers lost 2,285 jobs. The Financial sector was in the 5^th spot in November losing only 1,681 jobs for the month but its in the #2 spot for year-to-date job cuts, with 56,191.

TOP FIVE INDUSTRIES

Year To Date

    

                                                               2011     2010

                                    Government 180,881   138,979

                                            Financial 56,191    21,430

                                                 Retail 48,338    33,814 

                            Aerospace/Defense 34,354    17,981

                         Health Care/Products 23,812    26,612

An Overlooked Economic Indicator

  Challenger Holiday Party Survey (Released 11.22.11)

Year    Party     $ Cost                   On Site    Alcohol

2011    70%       Unchanged              30%        50%

2010     64%     76% Unch 18% +     50%        50%

2009     62%      66% Unch 24% -      65%        50%

2008      77%     na                              na           na

2007      90%    38% incease               25%        75%

Challenger notes that this unscientific report shows corporate parties are on the upswing despite a stagnating economy.

Anyway, Happy Holiday Season to All

World Reaction to US Debt Downgrade

 G7 major powers to confer on markets crisis: source Reuters


G20 deputies to hold crisis call Saturday: Brazil Source: Reuters


Path to debt deal was too divisive: White House Reuters


Asia, Europe Set to ‘Stick It Out’ With U.S. Debt Bloomberg


China has right to demand US address debt problem Source Peopleforum.cn

Research Update: United States of America Long-Term Rating Lowered To 'AA+' On Political Risks And Rising Debt Burden; Outlook Negative

Bing search for US Credit downgrade news


Google search for US Credit News


Standard and Poors Research Update: United States of America Long-Term Rating Lowered To 'AA+' On Political Risks And Rising Debt Burden; Outlook Negative


Overview
· We have lowered our long-term sovereign credit rating on the United
States of America to 'AA+' from 'AAA' and affirmed the 'A-1+' short-term
rating.
· We have also removed both the short- and long-term ratings from
CreditWatch negative.
· The downgrade reflects our opinion that the fiscal consolidation plan
that Congress and the Administration recently agreed to falls short of
what, in our view, would be necessary to stabilize the government's
medium-term debt dynamics.
· More broadly, the downgrade reflects our view that the effectiveness,
stability, and predictability of American policymaking and political
institutions have weakened at a time of ongoing fiscal and economic
challenges to a degree more than we envisioned when we assigned a
negative outlook to the rating on April 18, 2011.
· Since then, we have changed our view of the difficulties in bridging the
gulf between the political parties over fiscal policy, which makes us
pessimistic about the capacity of Congress and the Administration to be
able to leverage their agreement this week into a broader fiscal
consolidation plan that stabilizes the government's debt dynamics any
time soon.
· The outlook on the long-term rating is negative. We could lower the
long-term rating to 'AA' within the next two years if we see that less
reduction in spending than agreed to, higher interest rates, or new
fiscal pressures during the period result in a higher general government
debt trajectory than we currently assume in our base case.
Rating Action
On Aug. 5, 2011, Standard & Poor's Ratings Services lowered its long-term
sovereign credit rating on the United States of America to 'AA+' from 'AAA'.
The outlook on the long-term rating is negative. At the same time, Standard &
Poor's affirmed its 'A-1+' short-term rating on the U.S. In addition, Standard
& Poor's removed both ratings from CreditWatch, where they were placed on July
14, 2011, with negative implications.
The transfer and convertibility (T&C) assessment of the U.S.--our
assessment of the likelihood of official interference in the ability of
U.S.-based public- and private-sector issuers to secure foreign exchange for
debt service--remains 'AAA'.

Economic Data

Personal Income and Outlays http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/pi/pinewsrelease.htm

Personal Income - M/M change	Prior 0.4 %	Revised 0.3 %	Est 0.4 %	Range 0.1 % to 0.5 %	Act 0.3 %
Personal Income - Yr/Yr change	4.4 %	4.4 %			4.2 %
Consumer Spending - M/M change	0.4 %	0.3 %	0.0 %	-0.2 % to 0.3 %	0.0 %
Consumer Spending - Yr/Yr change	4.8 %	4.8 %			4.7 %
Core PCE price index - M/M change	0.2 %		0.2 %	0.2 % to 0.3 %	0.3 %
Core PCE price index - Yr/Yr change	1.0 %	1.1 %			1.2 %

Price Data

Indices+1.17%

Nasdaq +1.97%         Russell +1.01% S&P 500 +0.95% DJIA +0.92%  Midcap +0.66%

U.S. Stocks Gain as Banks Get New Rules, Technology Shares Rise     

Energies+0.10%

Gasoline +1.26%       H Oil +0.59% Nat Gas +0.59% WTI -0.34% Ethanol -0.87%

Oil Slides on Outlook for Slower Demand as IEA May Release More Stockpiles

           

Currencies-0.06%

Euro +0.79%   S Franc +0.18% C$ +0.17% Pound +0.06% Peso-0.06% A$ -0.48% Yen -0.57% USD  -0.58%

Euro Rises Versus Dollar on Greece Optimism

Softs-0.21%

Cocoa +1.25% Sugar +0.94%Coffee+0.46% Lumber-0.64% OJ-1.36%           Cotton -1.95%

Financials-0.45%

Eurodollar+0.02% 2-Year -0.09%  5-Year -0.20% 10-Year -0.20% T-Bond -0.84%

Treasury bond yields rise as some investors shun new debt sale

Grains-0.62%

Meal+0.91%      Beans +0.72% Canola -0.26% B Oil -0.56% Oats -0.75% Corn -1.38% Rice -1.60% Wheat -2.04%

Wheat Extends June Slide as Accelerating Harvest Boosts U.S. Grain Supply

Metals-0.94%

Plat -0.11%  Gold -0.33%       Pall-0.34% Copper -0.65%     Silver -3.23%         

Gold falls as safe-haven bids ease, equities up

IEA Oil Release News Reports

Brent Weekly

RBOV Weekly

WTI Weekly

Press releases IEA makes 60 million barrels of oil available to market to offset Libyan disruption

IEA collective action – June 23, 2011 Frequently asked questions How many times has the IEA undertaken such a “collective action”? When was the last time? How exactly will stocks be made available to the market in each of your member countries? What mechanism is used? How much time will it take for these stocks to become available? How much oil will each country release? Will each country release the same proportional amount, or will some countries do more? How is that decision made? THas the IEA consulted with OPEC or Saudi Arabia on this decision? Would this IEA action not discourage Saudi Arabia and other willing OPEC members from increasing oil production? I thought the IEA only does this for supply disruptions in excess of 7%. The 1.5 million-barrels-a-day disruption from Libya doesn’t seem all that much, given that global demand is around 88 mb/d, so why go to all the trouble? If the disruption from Libya is 1.5 million barrels per day, why are the IEA member countries releasing 2 million barrels per day? Libyan supplies have been off the market since February. Why are you only doing this now? Are IEA countries not putting at risk their capacity to react to more serious oil disruptions that may happen in the coming months considering geopolitical uncertainties in MENA countries?No; Several analysts say this is only likely to have a short-term effect on the market, and that prices will be higher in a month’s time. What’s your response?  Will you extend this by 30 days? How will you decide? Isn’t the IEA effectively doing this to counter high prices – and in that sense isn’t this fundamentally different from a traditional release in response to a supply disruption? Doesn’t this therefore set a bad precedent, by making the IEA a market manipulator? API Head: SPR Release Avoids Question Of Domestic Supply -CNBC U.S., allies to release 60 million barrels from oil reserves UPDATE 2-Bids for 30 mln barrels of SPR oil due by June 29

MBA Purchase Applications

Purchase Index - W/W Change	Prior 4.5 %	Actual  -2.8 %
Refinance Index - W/W Change	16.5 %	-7.2 %
Composite Index - W/W Change	13.0 %	-5.9 %

MBA: U.S. Mortgage Demand Slips As Rates Creep Higher

FHFA House Price Index

FHFA House Price Index Rises 0.8 Percent in April; First Monthly Increase Since May 2010

 EIA Petroleum Status Report Report Summary

Crude oil inventories (weekly change)	-3.4 M barrels	-1.7 M barrels
Gasoline (weekly change)	0.6 M barrels	-0.5 M barrels
Distillates (weekly change)	-0.1 M barrels	1.2 M barrels

Crude Inventories by PADD

Gasoline Inventories by PADD

FOMC Statement

Federal Reserve Lowers U.S. Growth Outlook

Softs+0.80%

Cotton +4.19%    Lumber +1.16%   Cocoa +0.43% Coffee +0.10% OJ -0.33% Sugar -0.76%

Energies+0.18%

Gasoline +2.63%    Heating Oil +1.53%  WTI +0.42% Natural Gas -1.60%        Ethanol -2.49%

 

Analysis of US EIA data: US oil product demand rebounds, but inventories rise on increased refinery runs    

Platts report: China’s May oil demand robust at 9.31 million b/d, but inventories rising

Financials+0.01%

10-Year +0.08%     5-Year +0.06% T-Bond +0.02% 2-Year +0.01%   Eurodollar +0.01% 

Metals-0.08%

Gold +0.29% Silver +0.09%  Plat+0.03% Pall-0.29% Copper -0.68%

Currencies-0.21%

.USD +0.47% Swiss +0.14% Peso -0.09% C$ -0.20% Yen -0.25% A$-0.37%   Euro FX -0.46% Pound  -1.10%

Sterling turns ugly, Fed stance gives dollar lift

 

Indices-0.28%

Midcap -0.23%       DJIA -0.44% S&P 500 -0.52% Russell -0.55%  Nasdaq 100 -0.60%  

Grains-2.01%

Oats -0.42% Bean Oil -0.80%                Canola -1.12% Meal -1.31% Beans -1.37% Rice -1.52%  Corn -4.24%  Wheat -5.34%

 Grain Prices Plunge as Favorable Weather May Revive Crops in U.S., Europe

Drought Worries Boost Ags

Economic Data

Existing Home Sales

	Prior	Prior Revised	Consensus	Consensus Range	Actual
Existing Home Sales - Level - SAAR	5.05 M	5.00 M	4.750 M	4.600 M to 5.100 M	4.81 M
Existing Home Sales - M/M Change	-0.8 %	-1.8 %			-3.8 %
Existing Home Sales - Yr/Yr Change	-12.9 %	-13.8 %			-15.3 %

Market Data

Softs+1.74%

OJ+4.17% Cotton +4.03% Cocoa +2.02% Lumber +0.17% Sugar +0.07% Coffee -0.04%

Drought, dust darkens nation's biggest cotton patch

Indices+1.60%

Russell +2.16% Nasdaq +2.13%      Midcap +1.76%  S&P 500 +1.35%  DJIA +0.99%

U.S. Stocks Advance as Concern About Greek Debt Default Eases 

            

Metals +1.13%

Pall+2.65%  Silver +1.12% Plat+1.10% Copper +0.41% Gold  +0.36%  

Grains +0.86%

Wheat +2.28% Oil +1.04% Corn +1.00% Oats +1.00% Beans +0.97%  Meal +0.49% Canola +0.07%  Rice +0.04%

Corn Rises Most in a Week as Hot Weather May Hurt U.S. Crop; Soybeans Gain

Currencies+0.36%       

C$+0.75% E FX +0.72%    Swiss +0.69%  Peso +0.69% British +0.40%  A$+0.31% Yen +0.15%     U.S. $-0.68%

Euro gains 4th day but path hinges on Greece vote

Energies+0.20%

Ethanol +2.40%   Nat Gas +1.90%   WTI +0.18% Gasoline -1.15% Heating Oil -1.92%    

UPDATE 1-Alaska N.Slope oil at $19 over WTI seen a record

Financials-0.07%

E$+0.03% 2-Year unch 5-Year -0.01% 10-Year -0.11% T-Bond -0.30%

FTC To Investigate Oil - Retail OTC Metals Ban

Softs+2.02%

Sugar +4.17%         Lumber+3.09% OJ +3.09% Cotton +2.45%         Cocoa+1.71%         Coffee-2.38%  

      

Sugar Rises to Two-Month High on Supply Concern; Coffee Falls; Cocoa Gains

Indices+0.68%

Russell +1.04%  Midcap +0.99% DJIA +0.63% S&P 500 +0.61%      Nasdaq 100 +0.45%

Financials+0.02%

T-Bond +0.12%  2-Year +0.02% Eurodollar unch 10-Year -0.01%  5-Year -0.03%

Currencies-0.01%

Peso +0.27% Swiss +0.23% Pound +0.15%Canadian $+0.05% U.S. +0.03%  E- FX-0.08% Yen -0.26% A$-0.39%

Metals +0.09%          

Silver+0.76%  Pall+0.45%  Gold+0.19%  Copper-0.63% Plat-1.01%

Trading Of Over The Counter Gold And Silver To Be Illegal Beginning July 15

            

Dodd-Frank rules outlaw retail gold, silver trading?

Grains-0.38%

Meal+0.29%  Beans +0.21%  B Oil+0.18%   Corn +0.04% Canola -0.31% Oats -0.43% Rice -1.11% Wheat -1.93%

 Corn Stocks Plunging to 1974 Low as China Adds Brazil-Sized Crop to Demand

  

Energies-0.43%

Ethanol +0.91%   WTI +0.39% Natural Gas -0.44% Gasoline -1.30% H Oil -1.78%

FTC opens probe into oil, gasoline markets

     

6.16.11 Jobs, CFTC, BOJ & Wheat

Economic Data

BOJ May minutes: Nishimura saw no signs of worsening sentiment

Swiss National Bank : Interest rate 0.25% No Change

 Swiss National Bank Holds Rates at Historic Lows  

	Prior		Consensus		Actual
Italy CPI  Mover M	0.1 %		0.1 %		0.1 %
Year over Year	2.6 %		2.6 %		2.6 %
UK Retail Sales M over M	1.1 %			-1.4 %
Year over Year	2.8 %	2.4 %		0.2 %
EU HICP M over M	0.6 %	0 %		0 %
Year over Year	2.8 %	2.7 %		2.7 %

United States : 

	Prior	Prior Revised		Consensus	Consensus Range		Actual
Home Starts - Level - SAAR	0.523 M	0.541 M		0.547 M	0.530 M to 0.560 M		0.560 M
Permits - Level - SAAR	0.551 M	0.563 M					0.612 M
Jobless New Claims - Level	427 K	430 K		420 K	408 K to 425 K		414 K
4-week Moving Average - Level	424.0 K						424.75 K
Philly Fed Index	Prior 3.9	Est 9.0	Range 0.0  to 19.8			-7.7

US Dept of Labor Weekly Unemployment report

Philly FED Survey

 EIA Natural Gas Report

Storage Data

Total (06/10/11): 2,256 Bcf (06/03/11): 2,187 Bcf 

Change: 69 Bcf 

Year ago stocks: 2,531 Bcf  % diff to yr ago: -10.9 % 

5-year avg stocks: 2,332 Bcf % dif to 5-yr avg: -3.3 % 

Industry News

House Passes Bill to Cut CFTC Funding

Senate Votes to End Tax Break for Ethanol

Market Data

Financials+0.27%

T-Bond+0.60%T-Note +0.24% 5-Year +0.10% 2-Year -0.01%Eurodollar-0.04%

Treasuries Advance on Concern Greece Will Struggle to Contain Debt Turmoil

Currencies-0.05%

Franc+0.48% Yen +0.40% Euro FX +0.17% A$-0.01% USD-0.15%  c$-0.19% British -0.20% Peso -0.24%

 

FOREX-Euro calmer after wild ride; Greece aid eyed

Indices-0.21%

DJIA+0.55%  &P 500 +0.20%Russell +0.17%  Midcap+0.01% Nasdaq 100 -0.40%         

Metals-0.62%

Silver +0.25% Gold +0.25% Copper -0.01% Plat-0.91%      Pall-2.45%             

Softs-0.63%

Sugar +3.35%Lumber+2.17% OJ-1.28% Coffee-1.81%Cocoa-2.44%  Cotton -3.95%

Energies-0.78%

Gasoline +0.94%   H Oil+0.74%  WTI +0.11% Ethanol -1.93% N Gas -3.19%

US FERC approves Appalachian Gateway gas pipeline project       

Grains-2.18%

Canola -0.24% B OIL -1.28% BEANS-1.28% Rice-1.41%  Meal-1.75%Oats  -3.13%Corn-3.34%    Wheat -4.98%

Wheat Breaks Below 52 wk average