Unemployment Friday

Europe                                     Prior         Est        Act

Swiss Unemployment Rate (NSA)   3.6%           3.7%     3.8%

Swiss Unemployment Rate  (SA)    3.6%            3.5%     3.6%

EU Unemployment Rate                 10.1%         10.1%    10.1%

Unemployment Rate  of top four Nations:

France=9.8%   Germany=6.7%  Italy=8.7%   Spain=20.6%    


North America                    Prior            Est          Act
Change in  Canadian workforce      +15.0k         +20.3k    22.0k
Canadian Unemployment                7.6%           7.7%      7.6%

US Nonfarm payroll                       +71.0k (r)    +160k     +103k
US Private sector jobs                    +79.0k (r)    +180.0k    +113.0k
US Unemployment Rate                  9.8%            9.7%       +9.4%

These numbers show that the jobs recovery is creeping forward but a slower rate than predicted. The larger-than-expected drop in US the unemployment rate is thought to be caused by seasonal factors and by people who have given-up thier jobsearch because they feel that no jobs exsist for them

CFTC Monthly Futures Market Report Dec 2010 (Click to Link to CFTC site)

Change in Open Interest (Futures + Options)

WTI Crude +3.1%    Nat Gas -1.3%     Heating oil +2.6%    RBOB +3.8%

Corn +8.7%    Wheat +13.6%    Soybeans +2.3%

Sugar +10.6%    Coffee +17.4%    Cocoa +8.8%    Cotton +8.4%

Eurodollars -15.7%    T-notes +5.54     S&P 500 -23.8%

Gold -0.2%     Silver +5.9%     Copper +12.9%

Private Employment Data
Challenger Job Cuts

Layoffs: Prior=48,711 Act=32,004

ADP Hiring 

Hiring Prior=+92,000  Act=+297,000

Both of these private employment forecast are calling for improvement in the jobs picture.

The ADP number was the biggest surprise. Most analysts are looking for non-farm payroll jobs to be up 140,000 in Fridays "Employment Situation Report." However, it should be noted that last month ADP called for a 92,000 new jobs, while the government reported only 39,000 new jobs

ISM Services Index

ISM Prior=55 Est=56 Act= 57.1

(Click for ISM Data)

Good news/Bad news: New orders and business activity components are at the highest point in this recovery. The jobs outlook is remaining flat.


EIA Weekly Petroleum Supplies (Click to go to EIA.gov)

(Click for Data Summary)

The report was more negative than positive: Product supplies increased more than expected and energy demand fell 7.8 (bearish) while crude supplies fell more that forecast. But improving economic readings and a technical correction of yesterday's sharp 2.4% selloff caused energy prices to close higher.

Market Recap.01.04.11

FOMC Minutes (cliick to go to Federal Reserve website)

"To promote a stronger pace of economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at levels consistent with its mandate, the Committee decided today to continue expanding its holdings of securities as announced in November. The Committee will maintain its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its securities holdings. In addition, the Committee intends to purchase $600 billion of longer-term Treasury securities by the end of the second quarter of 2011, a pace of about $75 billion per month. The Committee will regularly review the pace of its securities purchases and the overall size of the asset-purchase program in light of incoming information and will adjust the program as needed to best foster maximum employment and price stability. "


 Factory Orders (Click to view details)



Factory Orders Prior=-0.7% Est=-0.3 Act=+0.7

Transportation orders were stronger-than-expected and recent economic reports continue show that the economy is slowly gaining strength.


Weekly Sales Reports
Goldman w/w Prior =+1.0% Latest = +0.4%
Goldman y/y  Prior = +4.8% Latest = +3.6%
Redbook w/w Prior = +4.6% Latest = + 3.5% 
Weekly retail sales reports came in better-than-expected, as shoppers made it stores despite the weather.

Metropolitan Area Employment and Unemployment Summary
(Click to go to BLSwebsite)

METROPOLITAN AREA EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT -- NOVEMBER 2010



Unemployment rates were higher in November than a year earlier in 182 of the 372
metropolitan areas, lower in 166 areas, and unchanged in 24 areas, the U.S. Bureau
of Labor Statistics reported today. Thirteen areas recorded jobless rates of at
least 15.0 percent, while 11 areas registered rates of less than 5.0 percent. One
hundred eighty metropolitan areas reported over-the-year increases in nonfarm pay-
roll employment, 176 reported decreases, and 16 had no change. The national unem-
ployment rate in November was 9.3 percent, not seasonally adjusted, compared with
9.4 percent a year earlier.




Commodity Overview
The improvment in the global economic landscape could lead to portfolio rebalancing, as investors move back to equities and reduce their "alternative investment" holdings> (Gold, oil, commodities) 
Energies -1.6% Metals -2.64% Grains, -1.25%

Economic Data for .01.03.11

Commodity COT Report as of 12.27.10 (Click to view report)

Financial COT Report as of 12.27.10 (Click to view report)



Construction Spending  (Click to view categories)

Prior=0.7 Est=0.2% Act=0.4%





ISM (Click to view categories)

Prior=56.6 Est=57.2 Act= 57%

These economic reports show that the economy is continuing to slowly improve.