3.17.11 Futures Review

Economic Data

CPI

CPI - M/M change	0.4 %	0.4 %	0.3 % to 0.5 %	0.5 %
CPI - Y/Y change				2.2 %
CPI less food & energy	0.2 %	0.1 %	0.1 % to 0.2 %	0.2 %
CPI less food & energy - Y/Y change				1.1 %

Weekly Unemployment Claims Dept of Labor Release

New Claims - Level	Prev 397 K	Rev 401 K	Est 385 K	Range 380 K to 395 K	Act  385 K
4-week Moving Average - Level	392.25 K	393.25 K			386.25 K

Capacity Utilization/Industrial Production 

Production - M/M change	Prev -0.1 %	Rev 0.3 %	Est  0.6 %	Range  0.5 % to 0.9 %	Act -0.1 %
Capacity Utilization Rate - Level	76.1 %	76.4 %	76.5 %	76.3 % to 76.8 %	76.3 %

Leading Economic Indicators  Leading Indicators - M/M change

Prev 0.1 %

Est 1.0 %

Range 0.3 % to 1.2 %

Act 0.8 %

 Philly FED Survey     

      

General Business Conditions Index - Level

Prev 35.9

Est  32.0

Range 24.0  to 38.0

Act 43.4

EIA Natural Gas Storage Report  Nat Gas Storage report

Weekly Change (in BCFs)   Prev -71   Est -40   Act -56

Grains +4.82%         

W +7.48% O +6.35% Canola +5.56% C+4.87% RR +3.92% SM +3.83% S +3.50% BO +3.02%

AP News Grain Comment

Bloomberg.com Grain Commentl

Energies +3.84% 

NG +5.56% Ethanol +4.44% RB +3.74% CL +3.63% HO+2.21%

WSJ Energy Comment

Softs +2.34%

CT +3.78% SB +3.44% LB +3.24% KC +2.09% CC +2.08%    OJ -0.42%

Cotton closed up the daily limit snapping a 3-day losing streak. Cotton prices have closed lower 6 out of the last 8 sessions

Metals +0.85%

HG +3.51% PA +0.70% GC +0.64% PL +0.10% SI -0.14%

Bloomberg.com Metals Report

Indices +0.70%

ES +1.30% Mini DOW +1.19%         NQ +0.85% Russell 2K +0.65%        Mini Midcap +0.56%    

AP Equity NewsStory            

Currencies +0.47%

JY +1.31% SF +1.00% EC +0.84%  BP +0.73% $CD +0.49%  MP +0.28% AD -0.21%      USD Index -0.89%

Financials -0.20%

ED +0.01% TU -0.04% FV -0.15% TY -0.23% US -0.41%

Interest rates rose on the back of stronger-than-expected  economic reading and a  rebound in global equity indices.

03.16.11 Review

Economic Data

#1) MBA Purchase Application

Purchase Index - W/W Change	Prev 12.5 %	Act       -4.0 %
Refinance Index - W/W Change	17.2 %	0.9 %
Composite Index - W/W Change	15.5 %	-0.7 %

Homes sales were not able to keep up last week’s pace, although refinancing activity increased due to lower interest rates. The average 30 yr rate fell to 4.79% a 2 month low.

Housing Starts

Starts - Level - SAAR	Prev 0.596 M	Rev 0.618 M	Est 0.560 M	Range 0.540 M to 0.590 M	Act 0.479 M
Permits - Level - SAAR	0.562 M				0.517 M

Starts in both multi-family and single-family home.

The decline was seen in all regions

PPI

PPI - M/M change	Prev 0.8 %	Rev 0.7 %	Range 0.3 % to 1.1 %	Act 1.6 %
PPI -Yr/Yr change				5.8 %
PPI less food & energy - M/M change	0.5 %	0.2 %	0.1 % to 0.4 %	0.2 %
PPI less food & energy - Yr/Yr change				1.9 %

Both food and energy costs continue rack up healthy gains.

ABC News Report on Food Prices

Current Account

Current Account

Prev $-127.2 B

Rev $-125.5 B

Act $-113.3 B

The deficit relative to GDP for the 4^Q10 fell to 3.1% from 3.4% in 3^Q10.

Weekly Petroleum report View Summary Here

Oil and petroleum inventories remain above their average for this time of year. Gasoline and distillate inventories declined more than expected. Product demand remains above year-ago levels:

Gasoline +1.4% Distillates +3.8% Jet Fuel +4.5%

Market Activity

Financials +0.63%

T-Bond +1.13%  10-Yr +0.86% 5-Yr +0.52% 2-Yr -.13% E$ -0.02%

Bloomberg.com of Interest Rates

Energies +0.54%

RB +1.73%         HO+1.69% CL+1.20% NG +0.15% Ethanol -2.05%

CMEGroup Energy report

Metals +0.21%

HG +1.27% SI +0.45% GC +0.31%   PL -0.50%          PA -0.97%

Currencies -0.20%

JY +1.37% SF +1.02% U.S. $ +0.33% BP -0.43% EC -0.66% A$ -0.79% C$ -0.94% MP -1.27%

Reuters on the Yen

Grains -0.42%

Beans +1.34% SM +1.09% BO +0.15% W-0.86% RR-0.89% O -2.78% C -3.07%

Bloomberg.com on Corn

Softs -0.60%

SB +0.78% LB +0.53% KC +0.44% OJ -0.99% CC -1.17% CT -3.05%

Indices -0.85%

VIX +6.2% Midcap -0.80% Russell -0.85% ES -1.71% NQ -1.82% DOW -1.91%

Chart Source: Barchart.com

Chart Source: Barchart.com

3.15.11 Market Recap

Economic Data

ICSC-Goldman Sales Store Sales -
W/W change Prior 2.3 % Actual 0.1 %
Store Sales - Y/Y 2.6 % 3.1 %



Empire State Mfg Survey

General Business Conditions Index - Level Prior 15.43 Rev 16.0 Range 14.0 to 20.0 Act 17.5





Import and Export Prices

Export Prices - M/M change Prev 1.2 % Rev 1.3 % Act 1.2 %
Export Prices - Y/Y change Prev 6.8 % Act 8.6 %
Import Prices - M/M change Prev 1.5 % Rev 1.3 % Act 1.4 %
Import Prices - Y/Y change Prev 5.3 % Act 6.9 %

The data suggests that inflationary pressures were building but the events in Japan may have changed the trend



Redbook
Store Sales Y/Y change Prev 2.0 % Act 2.0 %





Treasury International Capital

Foreign Demand for Long-Term U.S. Securities Prev $65.9 B Rev $62.5 B Act $51.5 B
Foreign demand remains strong but it was below the prior two readings



Housing Market Index
Housing Market Index Prev 16 Act 17
The best reading since the tax-credit stimulus plan ended last spring



FOMC Meeting Announcement
View FOMC Statement Here
Federal Funds Rate - Target Level Prev 0 to 0.25 % Est 0 to 0.25 % Act 0 to 0.25 %

As expected, the FED held rates steady and kept the “ for an extended period” comment.

The report notes that the economy is on “firmer footing” and the labor market is “improving gradually.”

Price Activity

Financials +0.25%
T-Bond +0.72% 10-Yr +0.25% 5 Yr +0.04% 2-Year  -0.01% E$ -0.01%
Traders noted two countervailing themes: Bonds rallying to combat a potential economic slowdown, Sell side pressure as the Japanese repatriate their currency.



Currencies -0.23%
JY+1.13% SF+0.82% EC+0.06% $Ind +0.01% BP -0.56% MP -0.75% C$-0.94% A$ -1.62%
Yen strengthened as Japanese institutions brought cash positions back to Japan



Indices -1.27%

VIX +4.95% NQ +0.03% ES unch Mini Dow -0.06% Russell Mini -1.24%
Equity indices have moved below their 50d MA

Metals -2.83%
HG +0.20% GC -1.99% PL -2.81% SI -4.21% PA -5.57%

PA, PL & SI traded lower on fears that industrial deamand for those metals will suffer the most. GC & SI remain above their 50d MA, although the days low in gold was right at that MA

Energies -3.07%
NG +1.02% HO -3.72% WTI -3.78% Ethanol -4.75% Gasoline -5.21%
Concerns that the damage to Japanese ports will be hamper the importing of the full range of commodities.*

Softs -3.31%
LB +0.29% OJ -1.15% CT -3.54% KC -3.79% CC -3.95% SB #11 -7.70%
*See comment above



Grains -5.09%
RR -3.74% SM -4.14% C -4.50% BO -4.51% S -5.22% C -5.41% O -5.81% W -7.35%
*See comment above

03.14.11 Market Review

Economic Reports

The Monday’s economic calendar was very light.

The BOJ left rates at 0-0.1%. The BOJ also announced that it would increase its fund for buying financial assets.

EU Industrial Production: Month over Month	Prior -0.1 %	Revised0.3 %	Est 0.5 %	Actual 0.3 %
Year over Year	8.0 %	8.8 %		6.6 %

Price Moves

Energies +0.36%

H Oil +1.14% Ethanol +0.53% Nat Gas +0.51% WTI +0.49% Gasoline -0.93%

Grains +0.25%

Meal +1.57% Beans +0.41%  Wheat+0.28% Corn+0.26% B-Oil -0.93% Oats -1.85%

Currencies +0.18%

EC +0.77%  BP +0.69% SFranc +0.56% Yen +0.29%   C$ -0.10% A$ -0.42% $ Index -0.58%

Financials +0.18%

10-Year +0.29%       5-Year +0.25%  Bond +0.18% 2-Year +0.06%  Eurodollar +0.01%

Indices -0.57%

Mini Nasdaq +0.04% Mini DOW+0.03% Mini S&P+0.02% E-Mini Midcap -0.43%

Metals -0.70%

Copper +0.30% Gold +0.22% Silver -0.17%    Plat -1.41% Pall-2.42%

Softs -1.52%

OJ +0.60% KC-0.40% CC -0.67% LB-1.51% CT #2-3.42% SB #11 -3.71%

The markets were primarily focused on the situations in Japan and the Middle East.