CPI m/m Chg Prior: 0.1% Est 0.4%  Act: 0.5%
CPI less F&E  Prior:0.1%  Est:0.1% Act: 0.1%
 Broader CPI increase due to 4.6% rise in   energy prices.
Core prices held in check retailer competition
& weak housing

Retail Sales m/m Prior:0.8% Est: 0.8%  Act:0.6%
Less Autos          Prior:1.0% Est 0.7%  Act:0.5% 
Sales were below estimates. Higher gasoline
prices are reflected in the sales figures and November figures were stronger than expected.

Ind Prod  m/m   Prior: 0.3% Est: 0.5% Act:0.8%
Utilization Rate   Prior: 75.4% Est: 75.6% Act:76.0%
Manufacturing continues to lead the recovery. Utilities output was up 4.3% due to unusally cold weather.

Consum Sentiment Prior:74.5 Est: 75.0 Act:72.  

Stocks continue to rally on earnings news.
20 out of the 24 companies reporting earnings this week came in above analysts expectations.







Commodity COT (Futs + Opts) (Click to view)

Financials COT (Futs + Opts) (Click to view)

Trade Balance

Trade Balance Prior=$-38.4B Est=$-41.0B Act=$-38.3B

The trade balance improved as exports remain strong while the employment situation is keeping a lid on import demand.

PPI (Click for data)

PPI M/M Prior=0.8% Est=0.9% Act=1.1%
Ex F&E Prior=0.3% Est=0.2% Act=0.2%
PPI Y/Y Prior=3.5% Act=4.1%
Ex F&E Prior1.3% Act=1.4%

With many commodity prices rallying to multi-year highs on the back of increased demand and/or adverse growing conditions producers are facing increasing cost. We will have to wait until Friday's CPI numbers to see if those costs are being passed on to consumers.

Weekly Jobs Report (Click to view Report)

New Claims Prior=410K Est=405K Act=445K
Four week average Prior=411K Act=416.5

The US Department of Labor notes that year-end factors and adverse weather conditions may have caused a delay in unemployment filings.

Natural Gas Storage Report (Click to view Report)


Change in Supply Prior=-135Bcf Est=-140Bcf Act=-138Bcf



Beige Book Release (Click to view)

"Reports from the twelve Federal Reserve Districts suggest that economic activity continued to expand moderately from November through December. Conditions were said to be improving in the Boston, New York, Philadelphia, and Richmond Districts. Activity increased modestly to moderately in the Cleveland, Atlanta, Chicago, St. Louis, Kansas City, and Dallas Districts. The economy of the Minneapolis District "continued its moderate recovery," while that of the San Francisco District "firmed further" in the reporting period leading up to the close of 2010. Conditions were generally said to be better in Districts' manufacturing, retail, and nonfinancial services sectors than in financial services or real estate." (Source: Federal Reserve Beige Book)

This Week in Petroleum (Click to view)

Refinery Output                 12/31/2010  1/7/2011   Chg    4 Week Avg
Percent Operable Utilization 88              86.4         -1.6     87.48

Stocks
Commercial                        335,266     333,112     -2154   337,123
Total Motor Gasoline           218,146     223,227     +5081   218,351
Jet Fuel                               44,088      44,094           6      43,929
Distillate Fuel Oil                 162,107     164,759      +2652 162,135

Days of Supply                  12/31/2010      1/7/2011  Chg   4 Week Avg
Crude Oil                            22.4              22.4         0      23
Gasoline                             23.7              24.6       0.9     24
Jet Fuel                              30.2              30.9       0.7    31
Distillate Fuel                      41.7               43         1.3    42

Demand 
Total                              19,117      19,018    -99   19,740
Gasoline                           8,853        8,819    -34    9,071
Jet Fuel                            1,376        1,487  +111  1,425
Distillate Fuel                    3,735        3,569  - 166    3,836


USDA Supply/Demand (Click to view)

Corn Production 12,447 Yield 152.8 (Carryout 745 vs 779 Est)
Soybeans Production 3,329 Yield 43.5 (Carryout 140 vs 156 Est)
Wheat Production 1,782 (Carryout 858 vs 849 Est)


Grain Stocks: (Click to view)
Corn Stocks Down 8 Percent from December 2009

Soybean Stocks Down 3 Percent
All Wheat Stocks Up 8 Percent

CME Group Grain Report Commentary (Click to view)

4Q Earnings Report

The 4Q earnings reporting season began last week. Of the 31 earnings reports, 21 companies reported better-than-expected results, three reports were in line  and seven were below expectations.

Six companies recorded revenues that were below year-ago levels. 25 companies posted year over year revenue gains. 13 of those were double-digit year-over-year gains .

Schnitzer Steel (SCHN) posted the largest revenue gain (+72%) and had posted new 52 week price highs leading up to the release date. SCHN was one of the seven under-performers and lost 6.8% of its value following the release/

Notable reports due out in the upcoming week :
After the close Mon.  Alcoa (AA) Est. 19 vs +0.01 yr ago
Before the Open Thurs. Commerce Bancshares (CBSH) 0.66 vs .60 year ago
Before the open Fri. JP Morgan Chase (JPM) 0.99 vs 0.74 year ago