03.11.11 Final Report

Price Movements

Silver +2.48% Platinum +0.91% Gold +0.66%  Copper +0.24% Palladium -0.12%

Safe haven buying resurfaced in the PMG and copper saw some technical short covering.

Mini Nasdaq +0.97%  Mini S&P +0.91% Midcap DJIA Mini-+0.68%  Russell Mini +0.43%

Oil refiners and material companies rose on the theory that these sectors will benefit Japanese efforts to rebuild after Friday’s 8.9 earthquake .

AD+1.42% JY +1.39% EC +0.68% MP+0.48$ SF+0.27% CD+0.25% BP+0.14% USD -0.65%

5-Year +0.07% 10-Year +0.05% 2-Year +0.04% E$+0.01% T-Bond -0.03%

CT +1.97% Sugar #11 +0.52%  Cocoa -0.96% OJ-1.35% Coffee -2.19%

NG +1.54% HOil -0.52% RBOB -1.06%  WTI -1.50% Ethanol -2.31%

Natural gas remains in a tight range. The petroleum complex sold off on worries the earthquake may weaken the global recovery and weaken demand.

Rice -0.31% Meal -1.05% Oats -1.54% Beans -1.55% B Oil -1.81% Corn -2.71%  Wheat -2.94%

Grain sold off on worries about damage to Japanese ports and its effect on grain shipments. Japan is a major buyer of US bean, corn, rice and wheat.

CFTC Reports

Combined (F + O) Commodity COT Report (Click Here)

Combined (F +O) Financials COT Report (Click Here)

Economic News

China: CPI
Y/Y % Change Prior 4.9 % Est 4.8 Act 4.9
Food prices +11.0% Non-food +2.3%

China: Industrial Production
 Yr/Yr % change Prior 13.5 % Est 13.1 % Act 14.9 %

China: PPI
Y/Y % Change Prior 6.6 % Est 7.0 Act 7.2
M /M % change was +0.8% vs +0.9% prev

China: Retail Sales
Y/Y % Change Prior 19.1 Est 19.0 Act 11.6
Well below expectations

US Retail Sales

Retail Sales- M/M change Prev 0.3 % Rev 0.7 % Est 1.0 % Range 0.1 % to 1.5 % Act 1.0 %
less autos- M/M change  Prev 0.3 % Rev 0.6 % Est 0.7 % Range 0.3 % to 1.3 % Act 0.7 %

Auto sales and higher energy prices accounted for much of the gain



US Consumer Confidence

Sentiment Index - Level Prior 77.5 Rev 76.5 Range 74.8 to 80.0 Act 68.2

Increasing oil prices are beginning to cause concern with consumers. The normally stable inflation expectation component jumped to 4.6% one year out. And the five year out reading is now at 3.2%



US Business Inventories

Inventories - M/M change Prior 0.8 % Est 0.8 % Range 0.6 % to 0.9 % Act 0.9 %

03.10.11 Review

Economic Reports

China : Merchandise Trade Balance
level Prior $6.45 B Est $4.5 B Act $-7.3 B
Imports were up 19.4% while exports rose 2.4%. 5th straight month that imports grew more than exports. (The Chinese New Year Holiday may have affected exports more than imports.)


United States : International Trade

Trade Balance Level Prior $-40.6 B Revised $-40.3 B Range $-42.2 B to $-39.7 B Act $-46.3 B



Weekly Jobless Claims  (Click to view report)

New Claims - Level Prior 368 K Revised 371 K Est 385 K Range 370 K to 400 K Act 397 K
4-week Moving Average - Level Prior 388.50 K Revised 389.25 K Act 392.25 K

EIA Natural Gas Report (Click to view EIA Report)


Weekly Change -85 bcf -71 bcf
Analysts were looking for a 80bcf draw

Other News Items

 USDA International Weather Summary
North America
Of particular concern was winter wheat on the central and southern High Plains, which—in addition to the February temperature swings—has been adversely affected by drought. In contrast, snow continued to accumulate across the northern Plains and upper Midwest, increasing the likelihood of spring flooding

South America
In Brazil, weather conditions remained generally favorable for soybeans and other summer row crops, as well as coffee, sugarcane, and citrus.

Russia
Near- to below-normal precipitation was observed in most primary winter crop areas, although wetter-than-normal weather (mostly snow) prevailed in western portions of Ukraine and Belarus.

India
February warmth in India aided the development of wheat and rapeseed, previously slowed by cold conditions. Late-month showers provided favorable
moisture for winter crops entering reproduction.

China
Light rainfall late in February eased short-term dryness across winter crop areas of China and provided beneficial moisture for wheat and rapeseed breaking dormancy

Australia
In February, occasional showers throughout most of southern Queensland and northern New South Wales maintained abundant moisture supplies for reproductive summer crops.

South Africa
In February, drier-than-normal weather reduced moisture levels for filling corn in eastern sections of the corn belt. Drier conditions also prevailed in sugarcane areas of KwaZulu-Natal, but scattered showers were overall beneficial for summer crops in western sections of the corn belt.

USDA WASDE Report

La Niña update

Platts press release on OPEC Feb Production Increase

Comex Silver Inventories up 500,000